ProgressivePGR

ProgressivePGR

What does Progressive owe, and when must it pay it back?

→38% of Progressive's $8.4B of borrowing is not due until after 2040, and only $2.3B falls due this decade. An insurer can borrow that long because the premiums keep arriving whatever the bond market does.

Source: SEC filings - segment disclosures (XBRL notes) · as at 2026-06-30

ProgressivePGR

Progressive holds its float in bonds - how much are they down?

→The bonds Progressive is under water on are down 4.3% on commercial mortgages against 2.1% on government paper. These are paper losses it need not realise while the premiums keep the float topped up - but they are the reason a rate shock hurts an insurer at all.

Source: SEC filings - segment disclosures (XBRL notes) · as at 2026-06-30

ProgressivePGR

Revenue: is the business selling more than it used to?

$87.7B+16% YoYFY 2025

→Revenue reached $87.7B in 2025, compounding +21% a year since 2022 and the pace is picking up. The last twelve months (+10%) ran below that pace, so growth is slowing. The trailing twelve months are already running at $91.1B, ahead of the last full year.

Source: SEC EDGAR (XBRL company facts) · as at 2026-06-30

ProgressivePGR

Net income: how much of that revenue becomes profit?

$11.3B+33% YoYFY 2025

→Net income was $11.3B in 2025, compounding +150% a year over three years. Trailing twelve-month profit stands at $11.7B.

Source: SEC EDGAR (XBRL company facts) · as at 2026-06-30

ProgressivePGR

How fast is it growing, year by year?

+16.3%revenue growth, FY 2025

→Revenue grew +16% in 2025 against a five-year average of +16%. Earnings grew faster (+33%), so each new dollar of sales is arriving more profitably. 2023's +441% earnings rebound off a collapsed base sits off the axis.

Source: SEC EDGAR (XBRL company facts) · as at 2026-06-30

ProgressivePGR

Revenue per share: is your slice growing as fast as the company?

$149.07revenue per share, FY 2025

→Revenue per share reached $149.07 in 2025, compounding +21% a year - in line with PGR's own +21%, so the share count is not distorting your slice.

Source: SEC EDGAR (XBRL company facts) · as at 2026-06-30

ProgressivePGR

Margins: of every $1 of sales, how much survives each cost layer?

→Net margin stands at 13% in 2025. PGR doesn't break out gross or operating margin in its filings, so net is the only layer the data supports.

Source: SEC EDGAR (XBRL company facts) · as at 2026-06-30

ProgressivePGR

What does it earn on the money it uses?

→PGR earns 34% on shareholders' capital. Return on capital employed isn't meaningful for this business model, so ROE carries the picture alone.

Source: SEC EDGAR (XBRL company facts) · as at 2026-06-30

ProgressivePGR

What has the market paid for PGR over time?

11.1xP/E today

→At 11.1x earnings, the market is paying 12% less than PGR's own ten-year median of 12.6x. Pessimism is priced in - the question is whether it is deserved.

Source: SEC EDGAR (XBRL company facts) · as at 2026-06-30

ProgressivePGR

Could it handle its debt if things went wrong?

→Debt isn't clearly tagged in PGR's filings, so treat the balance sheet with extra care rather than assuming zero.

Source: SEC EDGAR (XBRL company facts) · as at 2026-06-30

ProgressivePGR

Is the company's own capital growing?

→The company's own capital grew from $20.3B in 2023 to $34.3B (+69%). The business is building book value rather than consuming it.

Source: SEC EDGAR (XBRL company facts) · as at 2026-06-30

ProgressivePGR

How much goes back, and how much leaks out as stock comp?

→Shareholders received $193M in buybacks and $2.9B in dividends in 2016. Stock compensation issued $132M of new shares in the same year, offsetting 4% of that.

Source: SEC EDGAR (XBRL company facts) · as at 2026-06-30

ProgressivePGR

How fast is your ownership being diluted - or concentrated?

→The share count grew 0.1% in 2025, averaging 0.1% a year over three years. Your slice of the company shrinks by that much each year unless earnings grow faster.

Source: SEC EDGAR (XBRL company facts) · as at 2026-06-30

ProgressivePGR

Is the dividend cheque growing?

→The dividend per share reached $4.88 in 2025, compounding +13% a year since 2020.

Source: SEC EDGAR (XBRL company facts) · as at 2026-06-30

ProgressivePGR

Can it afford the dividend?

→The dividend consumed 25% of profit and 17% of free cash flow in 2025. That leaves room to keep paying through a weak year.

Source: SEC EDGAR (XBRL company facts) · as at 2026-06-30

ProgressivePGR

Does PGR earn more on its capital than that capital costs?

→PGR earns 37.3% on the capital it employs, well above the 10% most investors treat as the cost of capital. It was 4.5% in 2022, so the trend is up, and the pace is picking up. That is the highest in PGR's filed history.

Source: SEC EDGAR (XBRL company facts) · as at 2026-06-30

ProgressivePGR

PGR has issued or retired shares - did shareholders end up better off?

→PGR has shrunk its share count -8% from 2011 to 2025, so each remaining share owns more of the business. Revenue per share is +502% over the same years.

Source: SEC EDGAR (XBRL company facts) · as at 2026-06-30

ProgressivePGR

Does the underwriting make money on its own?

→PGR's combined ratio was 89.9% in 2025, meaning it keeps 10.1% of every premium dollar before investment income. Peers sit at 89.5%. The ratio has improved from 98.9% in 2022. Anything under 100% is an underwriting profit.

Source: SEC EDGAR (XBRL company facts) · as at 2026-06-30

ProgressivePGR

Are the people running it buying or selling?

→Insiders sold $23M on the open market and bought nothing. Many sales are pre-scheduled diversification rather than a view on the price. A further 26 filings were grants, option exercises or tax withholding, which say nothing either way.

Source: SEC EDGAR (XBRL company facts) · as at 2026-06-30