What things costBreakdown

Which inflation number matters, and which one is in the headline?

Name: Which inflation number matters, and which one is in the headline?
Creator: TenQ

Date	CPI	Core PCE
2016-01	0.0124	0.0141
2016-02	0.0085	0.0147
2016-03	0.0089	0.0146
2016-04	0.0117	0.0152
2016-05	0.0108	0.0157
2016-06	0.0108	0.0155
2016-07	0.0087	0.016
2016-08	0.0106	0.017
2016-09	0.0155	0.0169
2016-10	0.0169	0.0178
2016-11	0.0168	0.0172
2016-12	0.0205	0.0177
2017-01	0.0251	0.0186
2017-02	0.0281	0.0187
2017-03	0.0244	0.0168
2017-04	0.0218	0.0164
2017-05	0.0186	0.0155
2017-06	0.0164	0.0158
2017-07	0.0173	0.015
2017-08	0.0193	0.0143
2017-09	0.0218	0.0142
2017-10	0.0202	0.0154
2017-11	0.0217	0.0155
2017-12	0.0213	0.0158
2018-01	0.0215	0.0163
2018-02	0.0226	0.0164
2018-03	0.0233	0.0191
2018-04	0.0247	0.0188
2018-05	0.0278	0.0198
2018-06	0.0281	0.0194
2018-07	0.0285	0.02
2018-08	0.0264	0.019
2018-09	0.0233	0.0196
2018-10	0.0249	0.0187
2018-11	0.0215	0.0201
2018-12	0.02	0.0204
2019-01	0.0149	0.0184
2019-02	0.0152	0.0174
2019-03	0.0188	0.0162
2019-04	0.02	0.0164
2019-05	0.018	0.0156
2019-06	0.0167	0.0166
2019-07	0.0183	0.0164
2019-08	0.0174	0.0175
2019-09	0.0168	0.0163
2019-10	0.0173	0.0162
2019-11	0.0209	0.015
2019-12	0.0232	0.0154
2020-01	0.026	0.0159
2020-02	0.0234	0.017
2020-03	0.0149	0.0153
2020-04	0.0031	0.01
2020-05	0.002	0.01
2020-06	0.0072	0.0097
2020-07	0.01	0.0121
2020-08	0.0128	0.0139
2020-09	0.0139	0.0148
2020-10	0.0123	0.0142
2020-11	0.0118	0.0145
2020-12	0.0132	0.0151
2021-01	0.0137	0.017
2021-02	0.0167	0.0171
2021-03	0.0267	0.022
2021-04	0.0413	0.0313
2021-05	0.0492	0.0354
2021-06	0.053	0.0386
2021-07	0.0525	0.0393
2021-08	0.0515	0.0396
2021-09	0.0535	0.0401
2021-10	0.0624	0.0444
2021-11	0.069	0.0489
2021-12	0.0717	0.0521
2022-01	0.0756	0.0536
2022-02	0.0794	0.056
2022-03	0.0857	0.0559
2022-04	0.0823	0.0535
2022-05	0.0854	0.0518
2022-06	0.0898	0.0532
2022-07	0.0846	0.0511
2022-08	0.0822	0.0536
2022-09	0.0819	0.0561
2022-10	0.0776	0.0546
2022-11	0.0712	0.0521
2022-12	0.064	0.0497
2023-01	0.0633	0.0494
2023-02	0.0596	0.0486
2023-03	0.0492	0.0478
2023-04	0.0495	0.0479
2023-05	0.0413	0.0473
2023-06	0.0307	0.0438
2023-07	0.0329	0.043
2023-08	0.0372	0.0383
2023-09	0.0369	0.0369
2023-10	0.0325	0.0347
2023-11	0.0313	0.0329
2023-12	0.0332	0.0311
2024-01	0.0309	0.0316
2024-02	0.0316	0.0306
2024-03	0.0349	0.0312
2024-04	0.0336	0.0301
2024-05	0.0324	0.0277
2024-06	0.0297	0.0275
2024-07	0.0294	0.0281
2024-08	0.0261	0.0287
2024-09	0.0243	0.0284
2024-10	0.0258	0.0299
2024-11	0.0272	0.0298
2024-12	0.0287	0.0299
2025-01	0.0299	0.0278
2025-02	0.028	0.0297
2025-03	0.0238	0.0267
2025-04	0.0233	0.0261
2025-05	0.0238	0.0278
2025-06	0.0268	0.0281
2025-07	0.0274	0.0286
2025-08	0.0294	0.0291
2025-09	0.0302	0.0283
2025-10	-	0.0275
2025-11	0.027	0.0283
2025-12	0.0265	0.0297
2026-01	0.0239	0.031
2026-02	0.0243	0.0305
2026-03	0.0329	0.0325
2026-04	0.0378	0.0333
2026-05	0.0417	0.0346
2026-06	0.0346	0.0334
2026-07	0.033	0.0334
2026-08	0.0335	-

→In August 2026 consumer prices were 3.4% higher than a year earlier, and core PCE - the measure the Federal Reserve actually targets at 2% - was 3.3% in July 2026. Core PCE excludes food and energy and reweights as shoppers substitute, which is why the two rarely agree.

Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · as at 2026-08

Year-over-year change in each index, computed from the published index level. There is no October 2025 reading for CPI: the government shutdown stopped collection and the Bureau of Labor Statistics cancelled that month's release outright rather than estimating it. Nothing is filled in, because a month nobody measured is not a month of zero change; the line simply spans it, the way it spans any period a series does not cover. The same hole will reach the year-over-year rate in October 2026, which has no base to compare against.

Where this comes from

Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (official)
Which in turn reads: US federal statistical agencies
How current: As at 2026-08 · checked every 35 days
What we hold: 128 observations, from 2016-01 to 2026-08
Attribution: Series retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Every series read here is produced by a US government agency and is in the public domain; FRED's licensed third-party series are deliberately not read.