US macro: rates, inflation, debt, the dollar and jobs

Interest rates set the baseline price of money. They affect what companies pay to borrow, what savers earn, and how investors value future cash flows.

• Lower yields make refinancing and new projects easier to justify.
• Higher yields raise funding costs and can pressure equity valuations.

The yield curve compares short- and long-term interest rates and often signals how markets see growth and inflation ahead.

• Steep curve: long-term rates well above short-term ones, pointing to expected growth and inflation.
• Flat or inverted curve: short rates similar to or above long rates, a pattern that has often preceded slowdowns.

Inflation tracks how prices change over time. It shapes what customers can afford, how far wages go, and how central banks set policy.

• Central banks often look through short-term headline spikes and focus on core trends.
• Sticky high inflation can keep rates elevated, while falling inflation can open the door to cuts.
• Expectations matter as much as today’s reading: if the bond market starts pricing well above 2%, the Fed tends to stay tight even as current inflation cools.

Federal debt, and the interest paid on it, set how much room the government has to spend, cut taxes or respond to a downturn. The larger the debt, the more every change in rates matters to the budget.

• Rising interest costs: more of each tax dollar goes to lenders, leaving less for everything else, and the debt can grow even with no new spending.
• Large deficits: more Treasury bonds to sell, which can push long-term yields up and compete with companies for investors’ money.

The Federal Reserve creates money when it buys bonds, and banks create it when they lend. How fast the money supply grows can feed into spending, asset prices and, in time, inflation.

• Quantitative easing: the Fed buys bonds with newly created reserves, holding long-term rates down and adding to the money supply.
• Quantitative tightening: the Fed lets bonds mature without replacing them, draining reserves and taking that support away.

A stronger or weaker dollar can move reported results before a company sells one extra product, especially for global businesses.

• Stronger dollar: overseas earnings translate into fewer dollars and can weigh on reported revenue and profit.
• Weaker dollar: foreign earnings translate into more dollars and can provide a tailwind.

The labor market drives wages, demand and confidence, and central banks watch it closely when judging how tight or loose policy should be.

• Tight labor market: steady job gains, plenty of openings, low unemployment and few new claims, so wages can rise and spending stays resilient.
• Softening labor market: weak or negative job growth, fewer openings, or rising unemployment or claims, as companies slow hiring or cut staff.

The same charts are read three ways. The macro story lays out each case with them, and what would show it is right.

• Higher for longer. The economy carries today's rates, and inflation drifts back toward 2%.
• The debt forces the Fed's hand. Interest costs push the Fed to cut, cap yields or buy bonds again.
• Something breaks first. High rates slow lending and hiring until a downturn brings them down.

Read the macro story

These charts are built from official macroeconomic data and update on the same schedule as the underlying releases. Each series follows the definitions used by the original providers.