Technicals · 201 companies · as of 2026-09-11
What the market is doing.
Where every company we cover stands against its own trend and against the index, checked nightly on our own daily prices. Two rules here have a record printed underneath them, because a rule can detect a crossing and cannot promise it holds. All of it describes the price, not the business.
Winners and losers
201 companies · against the S&P 500Every company's own return minus the index's over the same days, so a company can rise and still be a loser here. Where the crowd sits tells you whether an index return was earned broadly or by a handful of names.
→80 of 201 companies beat the S&P 500 over the last twelve months. Fewer than half beat it, and the middle company trailed by 14 points, so the index's return came from a minority of its members. MU leads at +579 points, LCID trails at -97 points.
Furthest ahead over twelve months
| Company | vs the index |
|---|---|
| Micron MU | +579 pts |
| Moderna MRNA | +474 pts |
| Dell Technologies DELL | +343 pts |
| Intel INTC | +297 pts |
| Marvell Technology MRVL | +234 pts |
| AMD AMD | +205 pts |
| Applied Materials AMAT | +162 pts |
| Lam Research LRCX | +161 pts |
| Warner Bros. Discovery WBD | +105 pts |
| Fortinet FTNT | +78 pts |
Furthest behind over twelve months
| Company | vs the index |
|---|---|
| Lucid LCID | -97 pts |
| NuScale Power SMR | -93 pts |
| The Trade Desk TTD | -87 pts |
| Roblox RBLX | -84 pts |
| Zillow Z | -81 pts |
| Strategy MSTR | -78 pts |
| Upstart UPST | -77 pts |
| Oracle ORCL | -72 pts |
| Opendoor Technologies OPEN | -71 pts |
| Joby Aviation JOBY | -70 pts |
Measured as the company's own return minus the index's over the same sessions, so a positive number means it did better and not that it rose; the S&P 500 itself returned 18.5% over twelve months. Past relative strength describes what has already happened to the price. It is not a forecast, and it says nothing about whether a business is worth more than it was.
Where the market stands
201 companies · 2026-09-11The six checks in every company's Trend chapter, counted across all of them. They are rungs of one ladder, in the order a trend confirms itself, so a count that falls away as you go down the list is a market where trends are starting and not holding.
- Price above the Kumo cloudtrading above the range it has been settling in80 of 201
- Price above the Tenkan and the Kijunabove both its 9-day and its 26-day midpoint46 of 201
- Tenkan above the Kijunthe 9-day midpoint has crossed above the 26-day one75 of 201
- The Senkou cloud ahead is risingthe band drawn 26 days ahead is still widening upward101 of 201
- Chikou above the price 26 sessions backhigher than it was 26 sessions ago83 of 201
- Beating the S&P 500 over 12 monthsahead of the index over the last year80 of 201
→80 of the 201 companies we cover sit above the cloud, but only 46 are also above both their shorter averages: most of those trends are stalling rather than building. 13 pass all six checks and 48 pass none, on 40% breadth overall.
Breakouts
A new uptrend, by one stated ruleCompanies that have just crossed into a new uptrend. The rule is strict and fires a handful of times a year across all 201 of them, so this list is often short. Treat it as a research prompt, not a buy signal.
Fresh
Crossed above the cloud in the last 5 sessions
ChargePointCHPTbroke out 2026-09-03- -0.2% since the break
- +33.6% above the cloud
- 75.6x normal volume that day
Broke out in the last six months
Every break in the last six months, against the S&P 500 over the same days| Company | Broke out | Then | Now | Since | S&P 500 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChargePoint CHPT | 2026-09-03 | $9.08 | $9.06 | -0.2% | -1.1% | still above the cloud |
| Palantir PLTR | 2026-08-04 | $162.66 | $167.23 | +2.8% | -0.9% | still above the cloud |
How we define a breakout
- A new trend, not a continuation
Above the cloud, after time inside or below it
The close moves above the cloud, the band where recent trading has settled (the same reading the Trend chapter uses) after at least 20 sessions inside or below it. A stock that has been above the cloud for months is in a trend already; it does not count.
- Confirmed three ways
Above its 200-day average, at a six-month high, on heavy volume
On the day it crosses, the close is also above the 200-day average, so a bounce inside a long decline does not count; it is the highest close of the last 126 sessions, about six months; and the day's volume is at least 1.5 times the average of the 50 sessions before it. These three are what separate the breakouts with a record from the ones without.
- Fresh, then recent
Within 5 sessions of the break
A breakout is listed as fresh for 5 sessions, provided the price is still above the cloud. After that it moves to Recent for 20 sessions, then drops off. How far the price has already run above the cloud is shown on every row; judge that for yourself.
What that rule has been worth
On our own daily prices since 2016Read this as a description of a rule, not a promise about a stock. The sample is small, most of these years were a rising market, and 19% of these breakouts were lower six months on. Nothing on this page is a recommendation.
Trends that have ended
The mirror of the breakout ruleThe other half of the question, and the one that matters if you already own something: a company that was in an uptrend and is not any more.
→2 companies have closed below the cloud after a stretch above it: DPZ, LMT. What the price did next is the table below.
Just ended
Dropped below the cloud in the last 5 sessions
Domino's PizzaDPZdropped below 2026-09-09- -3.1% since it broke
- -4.7% below the cloud
- 0.9x normal volume that day
Recently ended
Ended 6-20 sessions ago, still below the cloud
Lockheed MartinLMTdropped below 2026-09-02- -1.4% since it broke
- -2.4% below the cloud
- 1.1x normal volume that day
Dropped out in the last six months
Every ended trend in the last six months, against the S&P 500 over the same days| Company | Dropped below | Then | Now | Since | S&P 500 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domino's Pizza DPZ | 2026-09-09 | $321.46 | $311.60 | -3.1% | +0.3% | still below the cloud |
| Lockheed Martin LMT | 2026-09-02 | $531.55 | $524.19 | -1.4% | -0.1% | still below the cloud |
| Peloton Interactive PTON | 2026-08-06 | $5.51 | $4.95 | -10.1% | -0.6% | still below the cloud |
| Reddit RDDT | 2026-07-31 | $140.67 | $157.77 | +12.2% | +2.3% | still below the cloud |
| IBM IBM | 2026-07-14 | $215.52 | $243.29 | +12.9% | +1.7% | back inside the cloud |
| First Solar FSLR | 2026-07-02 | $224.57 | $209.03 | -6.9% | +2.6% | still below the cloud |
| Rigetti Computing RGTI | 2026-07-01 | $18.68 | $15.27 | -18.3% | +2.5% | still below the cloud |
| ChargePoint CHPT | 2026-06-24 | $5.58 | $9.06 | +62.4% | +4.2% | back inside the cloud |
| Strategy MSTR | 2026-06-01 | $149.78 | $130.97 | -12.6% | +1.0% | back inside the cloud |
| Cloudflare NET | 2026-04-10 | $166.99 | $306.53 | +83.6% | +12.8% | back inside the cloud |
| T-Mobile TMUS | 2026-04-02 | $199.16 | $182.33 | -8.5% | +16.8% | back inside the cloud |
| American Tower AMT | 2026-03-23 | $173.10 | $177.85 | +2.7% | +16.9% | back inside the cloud |
| Procter & Gamble PG | 2026-03-18 | $144.53 | $145.27 | +0.5% | +16.2% | still below the cloud |
How we define an ended trend
- There had to be a trend
Above the cloud on every one of the 20 sessions before
The close drops below the cloud after the price was above it on all 20 of the preceding sessions. This is not the mirror image of the breakout rule: that one counts sessions spent not above the cloud, which includes sitting inside it, so mirroring it literally would report a stock that had already stalled as a trend ending.
- Confirmed once
Below its 200-day average
On the day it drops, the close is also below the 200-day average. Requiring a six-month low as well left eight fires in eleven years, and requiring heavy volume cost fires without improving the record, so neither is part of the rule. The volume that day is shown on every row anyway.
- Just ended, then recently
Within 5 sessions of the drop
Listed for 5 sessions while the price is still below the cloud, then for 20 more, then it drops off. A company that climbs back inside the cloud leaves the list, because the thing the rule detected has stopped being true.
What that rule has been worth
On our own daily prices since 2016This rule fired 201 times across the companies we cover since 2016. Six months later 57% had lagged the S&P 500, against 51% of every six-month window for the same companies. That difference is inside the noise for a sample this size, so read the list above as a description of what these prices have done, not as a signal.