The shape of the curveBreakdown
Lenders normally charge more for longer. What happens when they do not?
| Date | 10-year minus 2-year |
|---|---|
| 2016-01 | 0.0118 |
| 2016-02 | 0.0096 |
| 2016-03 | 0.0105 |
| 2016-04 | 0.0106 |
| 2016-05 | 0.0097 |
| 2016-06 | 0.0091 |
| 2016-07 | 0.0079 |
| 2016-08 | 0.0078 |
| 2016-09 | 0.0083 |
| 2016-10 | 0.0098 |
| 2016-11 | 0.0126 |
| 2016-12 | 0.0125 |
| 2017-01 | 0.0126 |
| 2017-02 | 0.0114 |
| 2017-03 | 0.0113 |
| 2017-04 | 0.0101 |
| 2017-05 | 0.0093 |
| 2017-06 | 0.0093 |
| 2017-07 | 0.0096 |
| 2017-08 | 0.0079 |
| 2017-09 | 0.0086 |
| 2017-10 | 0.0078 |
| 2017-11 | 0.0064 |
| 2017-12 | 0.0051 |
| 2018-01 | 0.0058 |
| 2018-02 | 0.0062 |
| 2018-03 | 0.0047 |
| 2018-04 | 0.0046 |
| 2018-05 | 0.0043 |
| 2018-06 | 0.0033 |
| 2018-07 | 0.0029 |
| 2018-08 | 0.0024 |
| 2018-09 | 0.0024 |
| 2018-10 | 0.0028 |
| 2018-11 | 0.0021 |
| 2018-12 | 0.0021 |
| 2019-01 | 0.0018 |
| 2019-02 | 0.0021 |
| 2019-03 | 0.0014 |
| 2019-04 | 0.0024 |
| 2019-05 | 0.0019 |
| 2019-06 | 0.0025 |
| 2019-07 | 0.0013 |
| 2019-08 | 0 |
| 2019-09 | 0.0005 |
| 2019-10 | 0.0017 |
| 2019-11 | 0.0017 |
| 2019-12 | 0.0034 |
| 2020-01 | 0.0018 |
| 2020-02 | 0.0027 |
| 2020-03 | 0.0047 |
| 2020-04 | 0.0044 |
| 2020-05 | 0.0049 |
| 2020-06 | 0.005 |
| 2020-07 | 0.0044 |
| 2020-08 | 0.0058 |
| 2020-09 | 0.0056 |
| 2020-10 | 0.0074 |
| 2020-11 | 0.0068 |
| 2020-12 | 0.008 |
| 2021-01 | 0.01 |
| 2021-02 | 0.013 |
| 2021-03 | 0.0158 |
| 2021-04 | 0.0149 |
| 2021-05 | 0.0144 |
| 2021-06 | 0.012 |
| 2021-07 | 0.0105 |
| 2021-08 | 0.011 |
| 2021-09 | 0.0124 |
| 2021-10 | 0.0107 |
| 2021-11 | 0.0091 |
| 2021-12 | 0.0079 |
| 2022-01 | 0.0061 |
| 2022-02 | 0.0039 |
| 2022-03 | 0.0004 |
| 2022-04 | 0.0019 |
| 2022-05 | 0.0032 |
| 2022-06 | 0.0006 |
| 2022-07 | -0.0022 |
| 2022-08 | -0.003 |
| 2022-09 | -0.0039 |
| 2022-10 | -0.0041 |
| 2022-11 | -0.007 |
| 2022-12 | -0.0053 |
| 2023-01 | -0.0069 |
| 2023-02 | -0.0089 |
| 2023-03 | -0.0058 |
| 2023-04 | -0.006 |
| 2023-05 | -0.0076 |
| 2023-06 | -0.0106 |
| 2023-07 | -0.0091 |
| 2023-08 | -0.0076 |
| 2023-09 | -0.0044 |
| 2023-10 | -0.0019 |
| 2023-11 | -0.0036 |
| 2023-12 | -0.0035 |
| 2024-01 | -0.0028 |
| 2024-02 | -0.0039 |
| 2024-03 | -0.0039 |
| 2024-04 | -0.0035 |
| 2024-05 | -0.0038 |
| 2024-06 | -0.0035 |
| 2024-07 | -0.002 |
| 2024-08 | 0 |
| 2024-09 | 0.0015 |
| 2024-10 | 0.0012 |
| 2024-11 | 0.0005 |
| 2024-12 | 0.0033 |
| 2025-01 | 0.0036 |
| 2025-02 | 0.0025 |
| 2025-03 | 0.0034 |
| 2025-04 | 0.0057 |
| 2025-05 | 0.0052 |
| 2025-06 | 0.0052 |
| 2025-07 | 0.0043 |
| 2025-08 | 0.0064 |
| 2025-09 | 0.0056 |
| 2025-10 | 0.0051 |
| 2025-11 | 0.0055 |
| 2025-12 | 0.0071 |
| 2026-01 | 0.0074 |
| 2026-02 | 0.0059 |
| 2026-03 | 0.0051 |
| 2026-04 | 0.0052 |
| 2026-05 | 0.0047 |
| 2026-06 | 0.003 |
| 2026-07 | 0.0047 |
| 2026-08 | 0.0041 |
| 2026-09 | 0.0033 |
→On the latest reading in September 2026 the 10-year Treasury yields 0.33% more than the 2-year. A positive number is the normal state of the world: lenders charge more to be paid back later. A negative one means the market expects short rates to fall.
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · as at 2026-09
Published by the Federal Reserve Board as the difference between two constant-maturity yields. An inversion has preceded every US recession since 1955, which is the reason it is watched - but it has also inverted without one following, the lead time has run from six months to two years, and the curve typically steepens back above zero before a downturn rather than during it. It is a signal about expectations, not a date.
Where this comes from
- Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (official)
- Which in turn reads: US federal statistical agencies
- How current: As at 2026-09 · checked every 3 days
- What we hold: 129 observations, from 2016-01 to 2026-09
- Attribution: Series retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Every series read here is produced by a US government agency and is in the public domain; FRED's licensed third-party series are deliberately not read.