TenQ

The Amgen story

Amgen makes biologic drugs for cancer, bone and heart disease, with growth depending on whether Repatha, rare disease medicines and its obesity pipeline can offset erosion in older drugs.

Written from Amgen's own filings with the SEC, and rewritten when it publishes a new earnings release. Updated 2026-09-30.

  • $418.13share price, last close
  • $226.1Bmarket value
  • 21/36TenQ Score checks passed
  • 9.3%growth a year the price assumes

The story in brief

  • Growth is shifting. Amgen’s six key growth drivers grew 26% and generated nearly 70% of product sales in the quarter to June 2026, while Prolia faced biosimilar competition.
  • Cash has a caveat. Free cash flow reached $3.5 billion in the quarter to June 2026 versus $1.9 billion a year earlier, helped by the absence of a repatriation tax payment.
  • Expectations exceed history. The reverse DCF implies 9.3% annual growth in free cash flow after stock pay for ten years, compared with Amgen’s 1.0% historical annual pace.

What drives the business

  • Amgen’s biologic drug portfolio spans general medicine, rare disease, inflammation and oncology, with its acquisition of Horizon in 2023 marking a lasting expansion of the business.
  • Its collaboration agreement with BeiGene dates to 2019, and BeOne will commercialize IMDELLTRA in China following approval in May 2026, extending the reach of its small cell lung cancer medicine.
  • In the quarter to June 2026, total revenue increased 10% to $10.1 billion, while twenty-two products delivered at least double-digit sales growth.
  • Repatha sales rose 37% to $953 million, EVENITY rose 38% to $714 million and UPLIZNA rose 90% to $335 million in the quarter to June 2026, with volume driving growth in each.
  • Amgen is entering obesity through MariTide, with multiple Phase 3 studies covering weight management and related conditions, while higher spending on the program contributed to a 7% increase in GAAP research and development expenses in the quarter to June 2026.

What the price assumes

At $418.13, the reverse DCF implies that free cash flow after stock pay grows 9.3% a year for ten years, using a 10.2% discount rate.

Amgen delivered 1.0% annual growth in that measure over the last 10 years, while the TenQ check sets a 2.5% bar by moving the historical rate halfway toward 4%.

The 4.5% free cash flow yield exceeds TenQ’s minimum cash yield check but falls below Amgen’s historical 8.8%, leaving a wider gap between the price’s implied growth and the cash record.

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What could change the story

  • Biosimilar competition reduced Prolia sales 32% to $759 million and XGEVA sales 34% to $352 million in the quarter to June 2026, affecting both volumes and prices.
  • Consolidated private payers and pharmacy benefit managers have obtained larger discounts, rebates and service fees, while international reimbursement restrictions and reference pricing could further constrain product revenue.
  • The FDA’s request for voluntary withdrawal of TAVNEOS from the U.S. market remains unresolved, and partial clinical holds paused new enrollment in subcutaneous blinatumomab studies.
  • Debt outstanding of $57.3 billion compared with $14.0 billion of cash at June 2026 leaves financing demands significant, and interest coverage of 4.28 falls short of TenQ’s 5.00 bar.
  • Revenue growth over the last twelve months was 9.1%, below the 11.8% annual pace over the last three years, while non-GAAP operating expenses rose 11% in the quarter to June 2026.

What to watch next

  • Amgen’s full year 2026 guidance calls for revenue of $38.2 billion to $39.4 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $22.30 to $23.50, making product growth and expense control central measures at the next releases.
  • Repatha, EVENITY and UPLIZNA volumes, alongside Prolia and XGEVA declines, will show whether the portfolio transition continues to support revenue growth.
  • Free cash flow after the favorable tax comparison, debt balances and approximately $2.6 billion of planned capital expenditures for 2026 will show how much financial flexibility operations generate.
  • MariTide study progress, the planned initiation of Phase 3 diabetes studies in 2026, and FDA updates on TAVNEOS and subcutaneous blinatumomab are the key pipeline and regulatory developments to follow.

Sources

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