TenQ

The Boeing story

Boeing builds commercial jets, military aircraft and space systems, with its recovery depending on whether steadier production can turn its record airplane backlog into sustained cash generation.

Written from Boeing's own filings with the SEC, and rewritten when it publishes a new earnings release. Updated 2026-09-30.

  • $184.39share price, last close
  • $145.7Bmarket value
  • 12/36TenQ Score checks passed
  • 27.3%growth a year the price assumes

The story in brief

  • Demand awaits delivery. Boeing ended the quarter to June 2026 with over 6,200 commercial airplanes in backlog valued at $597 billion, while deliveries rose to 171 from 150 a year earlier.
  • Cash recovery remains uneven. Free cash flow reached $0.6 billion in the quarter to June 2026, helped by higher deliveries and working capital timing, but remained -$210 million over the last twelve months.
  • Expectations exceed the record. The reverse DCF implies operating earnings growth of 27.3% a year for ten years, compared with a historical revenue growth rate of -1.6% a year over the last 10 years.

What drives the business

  • Boeing is a leading commercial aircraft producer whose December 2025 acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems brought 737 fuselages, major structures for its widebody jets and its largest spare parts supplier in house to strengthen quality and production stability.
  • Its Commercial Airplanes business serves passenger and cargo airlines with the 737, 767, 777 and 787 families, and generated $11.8 billion of revenue in the quarter to June 2026.
  • Commercial Airplanes booked 246 net orders in the quarter to June 2026, including orders from Korean Air, Delta Air Lines and SMBC Capital, supporting its record $597 billion backlog.
  • Defense, Space & Security generated $7.5 billion of revenue in the quarter to June 2026, up 13%, with programs including the U.S. Navy MQ-25A Stingray and U.S. Air Force T-7A Red Hawk, alongside a communications award from the U.S. Space Force.
  • Global Services provides maintenance, parts, logistics and training, generating $5.3 billion of revenue and an operating margin of 18.1 percent in the quarter to June 2026, when it secured U.S. Navy P-8A training work and an Alaska Airlines training agreement.

What the price assumes

At $184.39, the reverse DCF assumes operating earnings, standing in for free cash flow, grow 27.3% a year for ten years using a 10.2% discount rate.

That compares with revenue growth of -1.6% a year over the last 10 years and the TenQ check's 1.2% bar, although revenue and operating earnings are different measures and neither establishes a free cash flow growth record.

Revenue grew 24.8% over the last twelve months, faster than its 10.3% annual pace over the last three years, but free cash flow of -$210 million leaves sustained cash generation unproven.

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What could change the story

  • Spirit integration may not deliver the expected synergies and quality improvements, leaving Boeing exposed to production and supplier problems despite bringing key operations in house.
  • Defense growth did not prevent $280 million of VC-25B losses in the quarter to June 2026 as Boeing invested in additional production and certification resources.
  • Debt repayments reduced consolidated debt to $45.9 billion at June 2026 against $20.0 billion in cash and marketable securities, but Boeing passed only 1 of 6 TenQ financial health checks, failing liquidity and interest coverage checks.
  • Shares increased 28.1% over 3 years, limiting how much of the business recovery reaches each share.
  • Boeing also highlights adverse litigation and government investigations, extreme weather, and legal, regulatory or market responses to climate change as risks to operations and results.

What to watch next

  • The next releases will show whether the 737 transition to 47 per month and the North Line's initial production translate into higher deliveries without renewed quality disruptions.
  • Boeing anticipates certification in 2026 and first deliveries in 2027 for both the 737-7 and 737-10, following completion of certification flight testing.
  • The company also anticipates first delivery of the 777X in 2027 and VC-25B in 2028, making certification progress and additional program losses important measures of execution.
  • Operating cash flow, capital spending and debt repayments will show whether the $1.4 billion of operating cash flow in the quarter to June 2026 develops into sustained free cash flow rather than reflecting working capital timing.

Sources

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