TenQ

The BlackBerry story

BlackBerry provides embedded and secure communications software, with the central question whether QNX can turn larger vehicle design wins into sustained royalty growth while Secure Communications stabilizes.

BlackBerry stock reportTenQ Score 25/36 · every chart and check from its filings
  • $8.06share price, last close
  • $4.7Bmarket value
  • 25/36TenQ Score checks passed
  • 24.4%growth a year the price assumes

The story in brief

  • QNX leads growth. In the quarter to August 2026, QNX revenue rose 27% to a record $80.3 million, alongside its largest design win.
  • Cash generation improves. BlackBerry generated $29.3 million in operating cash flow in the quarter to August 2026 and recorded its sixth consecutive quarter of positive GAAP net income.
  • Communications profits weaken. Secure Communications revenue grew 2% in the quarter to August 2026, but segment adjusted EBITDA fell 18% to $8.0 million.

What drives the business

  • BlackBerry’s QNX software enables more than 275 million vehicles, supplying operating systems, virtualization software and development tools for automakers and other industries requiring reliable embedded systems.
  • QNX earns revenue from licenses, royalties on units shipped, development tools and services, with approximately 20% of its revenue coming from non-automotive embedded systems as of fiscal 2026.
  • Coretura, the joint venture between Volvo Group and Daimler Truck, selected Alloy Kore, developed jointly by QNX and Vector Informatik, for its commercial vehicle software platform, adding over $100 million to QNX’s royalty backlog.
  • Secure Communications serves governments and enterprises through SecuSUITE encrypted communications, UEM device management and AtHoc crisis communications, with annual recurring revenue stable at $221 million in the quarter to August 2026.
  • Licensing monetizes BlackBerry’s patent portfolio and contributed $22.1 million of revenue and $20.0 million of segment adjusted EBITDA in the quarter to August 2026.

What the price assumes

At $8.77, the reverse DCF implies free cash flow after stock pay grows 25.9% a year for ten years, using a 10.3% discount rate.

BlackBerry delivered 711.0% growth in that measure over the last twelve months, while the TenQ check sets a 357.5% bar by slowing that record halfway toward 4%.

The implied growth passes that check, but the comparison rests on a single twelve-month period rather than a sustained record, with revenue growing 1.4% a year over the last three years.

Value BB on your own assumptions

What could change the story

  • QNX’s royalty model links revenue to customer shipments, so the Coretura backlog addition does not itself establish when the associated revenue will arrive.
  • Secure Communications’ dollar-based net retention rate of 91% in the quarter to August 2026 indicates contraction within its existing customer base, despite stable annual recurring revenue.
  • Licensing’s contribution may vary substantially between periods, with revenue guidance of approximately $6 million for the quarter to November 2026 versus $22.1 million in the quarter to August 2026.
  • Revenue growth of 14.4% over the last twelve months and 1.4% a year over the last three years missed TenQ’s respective sector benchmarks of 17.0% and 14.9%.
  • The 1.8% free cash flow yield fails TenQ’s 3% check, while return on equity of 10.7% trails its 14.0% sector benchmark.

What to watch next

  • For the quarter ending November 30, 2026, BlackBerry expects total revenue of $143 to $154 million, including QNX revenue of $82 to $88 million and Secure Communications revenue of $55 to $60 million.
  • Management expects adjusted EBITDA of $28 to $37 million and operating cash flow of $20 to $30 million for that quarter, against fiscal year ending February 28, 2027 guidance of $141 to $158 million and approximately $115 million, respectively.
  • Subsequent releases will show whether QNX’s royalty revenue follows its design wins and whether Secure Communications improves on its 91% dollar-based net retention rate and 13% segment adjusted EBITDA margin reported for the quarter to August 2026.

Sources

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