TenQ

The BlackSky Technology story

BlackSky Technology delivers satellite imagery and analytics to defense and intelligence customers, with the central question being whether Gen-3 subscriptions can fund its expanding satellite system.

BlackSky Technology stock reportTenQ Score 5/36 · every chart and check from its filings
  • $17.32share price, last close
  • $709Mmarket value
  • 5/36TenQ Score checks passed

The story in brief

  • Gen-3 adoption accelerates. Revenue reached $33.3 million in the quarter to June 2026, up 50% from a year earlier, primarily driven by Gen-3 subscription adoption.
  • Cash came from equity. BlackSky raised $150 million through the issuance of 3.6 million shares in the quarter to June 2026, strengthening liquidity while diluting existing ownership.
  • Adjusted profit excludes losses. Adjusted EBITDA was $4.7 million in the quarter to June 2026, but the company reported a net loss of $20.8 million.

What drives the business

  • BlackSky combines its own satellite constellation with the Spectra tasking and analytics platform, serving a customer base weighted toward U.S. defense and intelligence agencies and international governments rather than commercial customers.
  • Its established government relationships include the National Reconnaissance Office’s Electro-Optical Commercial Layer program, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency’s Luno A and Luno B programs, and the U.S. Space Force.
  • On-Demand and Assured subscriptions provide imagery and analytics, Mission Solutions lets governments own and operate customized satellite systems, and advanced technology programs support research and integration into customer operations.
  • Gen-3 adds 35-centimeter imaging resolution and expanded low-light capabilities, with related programs in India and Indonesia; in the quarter to June 2026, international revenue grew 200% from a year earlier and space-based intelligence revenue increased 50% sequentially.
  • BlackSky also received an eight-figure NRO contract for AROS development, extending its work into large-area digital mapping, and converted an international pilot into a seven-figure imagery and analytics subscription in the quarter to June 2026.

What the price assumes

At $21.50, the reverse DCF cannot measure an implied growth rate because free cash flow and operating earnings are both negative, leaving the price dependent on future profits.

The price represents 8.1x sales against TenQ’s sales check of under 2.5x, and BlackSky passes 0 of 6 Value checks.

Revenue growth over the last twelve months was 4.1%, below its annual pace of 17.7% over the last three years and TenQ’s sector growth benchmark of 22.1%.

What could change the story

  • Free cash flow over the last twelve months was -$70 million and the operating margin was -43.4%, so positive adjusted EBITDA has not established that the business can fund itself.
  • Cash, restricted cash, and short-term investments totaled $244.1 million as of June 30, 2026, but the increase relied on equity issuance rather than cash generated by operations.
  • Total debt of $217 million adds financing demands, and BlackSky fails TenQ’s interest coverage check despite passing its near-term liquidity check.
  • The improvement in net loss in the quarter to June 2026 primarily reflected changes in derivative gains and losses tied to equity instruments, rather than operating improvement alone.
  • Government budget uncertainty, long and unpredictable sales cycles, and resource estimates for fixed-price contracts could affect the timing and economics of customer awards.

What to watch next

  • BlackSky reaffirmed full year 2026 revenue guidance between $130 million and $150 million and adjusted EBITDA between $12 million and $24 million.
  • Its full year 2026 capital expenditure outlook remains between $50 million and $60 million, making operating cash generation and remaining liquidity important measures alongside adjusted earnings.
  • The August 2026 release expected the next two Gen-3 satellites to launch in the third quarter of 2026, making launch progress and subsequent subscription adoption concrete milestones.
  • Further international pilot conversions, government renewals, and space-based intelligence revenue growth will show whether the adoption gains reported in the quarter to June 2026 persist.

Sources

Back to the BKSY report