TenQ

The BlackRock story

BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager and home of iShares, with the question of whether private markets and Aladdin can sustain fee growth alongside its ETF franchise.

Written from BlackRock's own filings with the SEC, and rewritten when it publishes a new earnings release. Updated 2026-09-30.

  • $1071.25share price, last close
  • $166.0Bmarket value
  • 12/36TenQ Score checks passed

The story in brief

  • Client flows broaden. BlackRock attracted $321 billion of net inflows in the first half of 2026, driven by ETFs, private markets, active fixed income and systematic equity strategies.
  • Private markets matter. Private markets represented 2% of assets under management at June 2026 but generated 11% of base fees and securities lending revenue in the quarter to June 2026.
  • Cash trails distributions. Over the last twelve months, BlackRock generated $3.5 billion of free cash flow while dividends and share repurchases totaled $5.0 billion.

What drives the business

  • BlackRock's iShares franchise anchors its global asset management business, with $5.5 trillion of ETF assets at December 2025 and $527 billion of ETF net inflows during 2025.
  • Its expansion into private markets included GIP, which added $70 billion of assets in October 2024, and HPS Investment Partners, which added $118 billion in July 2025.
  • Management fees are typically a percentage of client assets, making market values, net inflows and product mix central to revenue, while pension clients accounted for $3.9 trillion of institutional assets at December 2025.
  • Assets under management reached $15.3 trillion at June 2026 following $868 billion of net inflows over the last twelve months, with organic base fee growth of 10%.
  • Aladdin and broader technology offerings add subscription revenue, with technology services and subscription revenue growing 13% and annual contract value increasing 15% from a year earlier in the quarter to June 2026.

What the price assumes

The growth embedded in BlackRock's price is not measured because TenQ excludes finance industry filings from its reverse DCF, where free cash flow may not measure earnings adequately.

Shares trade at 26.2x earnings against revenue growth of 26.5% and profit growth of 2.7% over the last twelve months.

BlackRock passes 0 of 6 TenQ Value checks, including a free cash flow yield of 2.1% against the check's 3.0% threshold.

What could change the story

  • Market declines could reduce the assets on which BlackRock earns fees, even if clients continue adding money.
  • Institutional index mandates can produce large withdrawals, with $119 billion of net outflows in 2025 driven primarily by a single client's partial redemptions.
  • The adjusted operating margin of 45.9% in the quarter to June 2026 differs substantially from the GAAP operating margin of 34.7%, making the distinction important when assessing profitability.
  • TenQ's cash conversion check registers 0.60 against a required 0.80, while return on equity of 12.0% falls below its sector comparison of 22.1%.
  • Capital returns amounted to 142.9% of free cash flow over the last twelve months, while the share count rose 5.5% over the last three years.

What to watch next

  • The next releases will show whether organic base fee growth remains supported by ETF and active strategy inflows after reaching 8% in the quarter to June 2026.
  • Technology revenue growth and annual contract value will show whether Aladdin adoption continues translating into revenue, alongside private markets' contribution to fees.
  • BlackRock plans quarterly share repurchases of $550 million and expects $2 billion of repurchases in 2026, making free cash flow and changes in the diluted share count important measures of that plan.

Sources

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