The Bristol Myers Squibb story

What drives the business

• Bristol Myers Squibb depends on developing and commercializing new medicines to replace revenue lost when established products lose market exclusivity, including Revlimid, Eliquis, Opdivo and Orencia.
• Growth Portfolio revenue increased 15% to $7.6 billion in the quarter to June 2026, driven by Opdivo Qvantig, Reblozyl, Camzyos, Breyanzi and Opdualag.
• Eliquis demand increased in the quarter to June 2026, but generic competition across the rest of the Legacy Portfolio more than offset that strength, leaving portfolio revenue down 4% at $5.4 billion.
• Cobenfy, the schizophrenia medicine acquired with Karuna, generated $63 million in the quarter to June 2026, compared with $27 million in the quarter to March 2025.
• The May 2026 collaboration and licensing agreements with Hengrui Pharma cover 13 early-stage programs in oncology, hematology and immunology, extending the pipeline beyond medicines already on the market.

What the price assumes

At $63.88, the reverse DCF implies that free cash flow after stock pay grows -0.3% a year for ten years, using a 10.2% discount rate.

That compares with delivered annual growth of 19.7% over the last 10 years and the TenQ check's 11.8% bar, which slows that historical record halfway toward 4%.

The free cash flow yield of 8.8% is below its historical comparison of 11.2%, so the cash yield check fails despite the limited growth implied by the reverse DCF.

Value BMY on your own assumptions

What could change the story

• Generic lenalidomide licenses in the United States ceased being volume-limited on January 31, 2026, while generic Eliquis competition in some European countries shows that revenue erosion can precede expected patent expiration.
• Clinical setbacks, delayed approvals and tighter drug reimbursement could limit how quickly new medicines replace lost revenue.
• Revenue growth of 3.1% over the last twelve months and annual growth of 1.4% over the last three years both failed TenQ's sector growth checks, despite faster Growth Portfolio expansion.
• Total debt of $43.1 billion exceeds cash and short-term investments of $11.1 billion, and debt relative to equity rose to 1.93 from 1.24 five years earlier, failing both debt checks.
• Alongside collaborations with NVIDIA and Anthropic, Bristol Myers Squibb added a warning that artificial intelligence use and technology sharing with partners may increase competitive, regulatory, litigation and cybersecurity risks.

What to watch next

• The next releases will test the raised 2026 revenue guidance of approximately $49.0 billion to $50.0 billion and non-GAAP EPS guidance of $6.75 to $7.00.
• Eliquis revenue growth against management's 20% to 25% guidance for 2026, compared with 2025, will show how much support the legacy business continues to provide.
• Growth Portfolio revenue, Cobenfy adoption and gross margin will help show whether the product transition is sustaining profitability, after GAAP gross margin fell to 71.3% from 72.5% in the quarter to June 2026.
• Pipeline updates will establish progress toward FDA decision dates of March 11, 2027 for the Reblozyl application and May 13, 2027 for mezigdomide.

Sources

• Bristol Myers Squibb's earnings release, filed with the SEC
• Its latest 10-Q or 10-K, for the risk factors
• The BMY stock report, for every figure and check