TenQ

The Instacart story

Instacart powers grocery ordering, retailer technology, and brand advertising, with the central question whether growing orders and advertising can keep profits expanding as it reinvests.

Instacart stock reportTenQ Score 24/36 · every chart and check from its filings
  • $49.83share price, last close
  • $11.5Bmarket value
  • 24/36TenQ Score checks passed
  • 3.0%growth a year the price assumes

The story in brief

  • Advertising outpaces orders. In the quarter to June 2026, advertising and other revenue grew 16% to $297 million, while orders grew 9% to 90.3 million.
  • Profit measures diverge. In the quarter to June 2026, Adjusted EBITDA rose 19% to $313 million, but GAAP net income fell 4% to $111 million.
  • Cash carries qualifications. Over the last twelve months, Instacart generated $1.2 billion in free cash flow, alongside $403 million in stock-based pay and shareholder distributions exceeding free cash flow.

What drives the business

  • Instacart connects retailers, consumers, brands, and shoppers through its Marketplace, Enterprise platform, and Ads business, serving more than 2,200 retail banners as of December 2025.
  • Its Enterprise platform extends beyond delivery into retailer storefronts, fulfillment, advertising, and store technology, with its storefront technology powering more than 380 grocers’ e-commerce sites.
  • Instacart Ads uses transaction information to connect brands with grocery customers, serving over 9,000 active brands as of December 2025.
  • In the quarter to June 2026, transaction revenue was $746 million and advertising and other revenue was $297 million, supported by Gross Transaction Value, or GTV, of $10,351 million.
  • Retailer technology expansion includes Costco’s nationwide launch of FoodStorm online ordering and delivery for custom cakes and party platters, while the Arpalus acquisition adds computer vision technology for shelf inventory visibility.

What the price assumes

At $45.21, the reverse DCF implies free cash flow after stock pay grows 1.7% a year for ten years, using a 10.3% discount rate.

Instacart delivered 36.4% annual growth in that measure over the last 3 fiscal years, compared with the TenQ check’s 20.2% bar, which slows that record halfway toward 4%.

The implied growth rate is below both comparisons, but those historical cash results are distinct from revenue growth of 12.6% over the last twelve months.

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What could change the story

  • Retailer dependence is substantial: the top three retailers accounted for approximately 43% of GTV in recent years, so reduced engagement by a major partner could materially affect the business.
  • Amazon and Walmart compete for grocery spending, while advertising growth depends on attracting brands and retaining their spending amid privacy restrictions and changes in consumer demand.
  • Challenges to shoppers’ contractor status and rules governing compensation and access to the platform could raise fulfillment costs or require operating changes.
  • Instacart passed 0 of 6 TenQ Growth checks, with revenue growth of 12.6% over the last twelve months below its 13.6% annual pace over the last three years.
  • Shareholder distributions amounted to 158.1% of free cash flow, making the pace of repurchases a balance sheet consideration despite total debt of $0.

What to watch next

  • For the third quarter of 2026, Instacart expects GTV between $10,300 million and $10,550 million and Adjusted EBITDA between $320 million and $340 million, representing midpoint growth of 14% and 19%, respectively.
  • For fiscal 2026, management expects Adjusted EBITDA growth to outpace GTV growth, but says expansion will moderate as it reinvests and laps earlier expense efficiencies.
  • The next releases will show whether advertising continues to outgrow GTV and whether GAAP profitability follows Adjusted EBITDA after gross margin fell to 72% from 74% in the quarter to June 2026.
  • Free cash flow, stock-based pay, and repurchases will show how management balances reinvestment with its stated plan to return the majority of fiscal 2026 free cash flow through share repurchases.

Sources

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