The Comcast story

What drives the business

• Comcast combines residential and business connectivity with Media, Studios and Theme Parks, but its June 2026 plan would separate NBCUniversal and Sky from Comcast’s broadband, wireless and entertainment platforms after the completed Versant separation.
• Xfinity’s domestic broadband business uses Comcast’s fiber and coaxial network, while domestic wireless relies on a Verizon network agreement and Comcast’s Wi-Fi hotspots, with a T-Mobile agreement also covering business wireless beginning in 2026.
• In the quarter to June 2026, domestic wireless added 448,000 lines, while Business Services Connectivity revenue grew 3.7% to $2.7 billion and EBITDA increased 5.0% to $1.5 billion, supported by enterprise solutions.
• Peacock earns subscription and advertising revenue, and the NBA Playoffs, FIFA World Cup and Love Island USA helped paid subscribers reach 48 million and adjusted EBITDA reach $189 million in the quarter to June 2026.
• Universal’s films and parks add distinct sources of revenue, with Studios EBITDA increasing $141 million from a year earlier in the quarter to June 2026 on successful theatrical releases, while Theme Parks revenue grew 2.7% following Epic Universe’s opening in May 2025.

What the price assumes

At $21.79, the reverse DCF implies annual growth of -17.0% in free cash flow after stock pay for ten years, using a 10.2% discount rate.

That implied contraction contrasts with delivered growth of 6.5% a year over the last 10 years and the TenQ check’s 5.2% bar, which slows the historical record halfway toward 4%.

The model describes an embedded cash flow assumption rather than an operating forecast, and the historical record spans a different business mix from the planned separate companies.

Value CMCSA on your own assumptions

What could change the story

• Broadband competition from fiber, fixed wireless and satellite providers threatens the core connectivity business, which lost 167,000 domestic residential broadband customers in the quarter to June 2026 as lower average rates also weighed on broadband revenue.
• The planned separation requires board approval, tax opinions, regulatory approvals and financing arrangements, and failure to qualify as tax-free could create substantial taxes and liabilities.
• Even if completed, the separation may not achieve its intended benefits, and the smaller companies could face higher ongoing costs and greater exposure to market conditions.
• Total debt of $90.4 billion against $7.7 billion of cash and short-term investments leaves financing important, while TenQ’s financial health checks pass only 1 of 6 and flag liquidity, leverage and interest coverage.
• Entertainment growth carries costs, with NBA rights and FIFA World Cup programming raising Media expenses and Theme Parks adjusted EBITDA falling 5.1% in the quarter to June 2026 despite revenue growth.

What to watch next

• Comcast’s June 2026 announcement anticipated completing the separation in approximately one year, making approval progress, financing arrangements and the allocation of debt important details in subsequent releases.
• The July 2026 earnings release gave no quantitative earnings guidance, leaving broadband customer losses, average rates and Residential Connectivity & Platforms profitability as key measures of its new commercial strategy.
• Peacock’s next subscriber and adjusted EBITDA figures will show whether its first profitable quarter, supported by major live events, develops into sustained profitability.
• Connectivity capital expenditures rose 19.9% to $2.3 billion in the quarter to June 2026, making spending alongside free cash flow and the share repurchase pause important measures of financial flexibility.

Sources

• Comcast's earnings release, filed with the SEC
• Its latest 10-Q or 10-K, for the risk factors
• The CMCSA stock report, for every figure and check