The Ford story

What drives the business

• Ford's enduring strength is its truck and commercial vehicle franchise, with F-Series recording 828,832 sales in 2025 and leading America's truck sales for the 49th consecutive year.
• The December 2025 strategy shift redirected capital toward trucks, hybrids, affordable EVs and battery storage, while dropping plans for select larger electric vehicles because of weaker demand and high costs.
• Ford Pro combines commercial vehicles with services, generating $17.8 billion of revenue at a 9.7% EBIT margin in the quarter to June 2026, while Ford Pro Intelligence exceeded 900,000 active paid software subscriptions in the first half of 2026.
• Ford Blue's gas and hybrid business generated $26.1 billion of revenue in the quarter to June 2026, up 1%, with off-road trims accounting for nearly a quarter of Ford's U.S. sales.
• Model e generated $1.0 billion of revenue and recorded its third consecutive quarter of annual EBIT improvement in the quarter to June 2026, while the separate Ford Credit financing business earned $757 million before taxes.

What the price assumes

At $12.38, TenQ's reverse DCF implies annual free cash flow growth after stock pay of -22.9% for ten years, using a 10.2% discount rate.

That implied contraction contrasts with Ford's delivered growth of 2.3% a year over the last 10 years and the TenQ check's 3.2% growth bar.

Ford generated $7.3 billion of free cash flow over the last twelve months, but its -3.7% operating margin shows that cash generation and reported profitability tell different stories.

Value F on your own assumptions

What could change the story

• Ford Pro's EBIT fell $0.6 billion from a year earlier in the quarter to June 2026 amid Novelis aluminum supply constraints, exposing the dependence of its commercial earnings on supplier recovery.
• The EV transition still requires cash, with Ford's December 2025 restructuring announcement estimating about $5.5 billion in cash effects, mostly payable in 2026 and the remainder in 2027.
• Revenue growth slowed to 1.5% over the last twelve months from a 5.8% annual pace over the last three years, and Ford passed only 1 of 6 TenQ Growth checks.
• Ford passed only 1 of 6 Financial health checks, with $161.0 billion of consolidated debt and liabilities equal to 87.5% of assets, although much of that debt sits within Ford Credit's financing business rather than vehicle manufacturing.
• The 2026 outlook excludes a material U.S. economic downturn, significant escalation in the Middle East and unannounced policy changes, leaving demand and tariff assumptions exposed to events outside Ford's control.

What to watch next

• The next releases will test Ford's raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance of $10.0 billion to $11.0 billion and adjusted free cash flow guidance of $6.0 billion to $7.0 billion, including approximately $500 million of expected IEEPA reimbursement cash recovery.
• Ford Pro's margin and production recovery will show whether the expected Novelis benefit of about $1 billion, heavily weighted toward the second half of 2026, is reaching earnings.
• Model e's losses will test the full-year 2026 expectation of approximately $4.0 billion, including about $1 billion of incremental investment in the Universal Electric Vehicle platform and Ford Energy.
• Material and warranty costs will show whether Ford achieves approximately $1 billion of planned reductions, while industry pricing will test the outlook's assumption of an increase of about 0.5% in 2026.

Sources

• Ford's earnings release, filed with the SEC
• Its latest 10-Q or 10-K, for the risk factors
• The F stock report, for every figure and check