TenQ

The Intuit story

Intuit makes TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma and Mailchimp, with its transition to AI and human expert services depending on whether deeper customer relationships can offset slower growth in tax filings and marketing software.

Written from Intuit's own filings with the SEC, and rewritten when it publishes a new earnings release. Updated 2026-09-30.

  • $269.40share price, last close
  • $72.0Bmarket value
  • 26/36TenQ Score checks passed
  • -1.3%growth a year the price assumes

The story in brief

  • Experts reshape tax revenue. TurboTax Live revenue grew 37 percent in fiscal 2026 and represented 53 percent of TurboTax revenue, while total U.S. TurboTax units declined.
  • Growth expectations moderate. Intuit expects revenue growth of 9 percent to 10 percent in fiscal 2027, compared with 14 percent growth in fiscal 2026.
  • Stock pay counts. Intuit will include stock compensation in its non-GAAP financial measures beginning in fiscal 2027, following $2.1 billion of stock compensation over the last twelve months.

What drives the business

  • Since adopting its AI expert platform strategy in 2019, Intuit has expanded beyond tax and bookkeeping software toward services that combine automation with human tax and financial experts.
  • Global Business Solutions connects QuickBooks and Intuit Enterprise Suite with payments, payroll, financing and marketing, generating $12.9 billion of revenue in fiscal 2026, up 16 percent.
  • The Consumer segment generated $8.6 billion in fiscal 2026, including $5.3 billion from TurboTax, where expert assistance helped revenue grow 7 percent despite fewer U.S. filings.
  • Credit Karma connects consumers with financial products and generated $2.6 billion in fiscal 2026, up 20 percent, supported by personal loans, auto insurance and credit cards.
  • Intuit's Big Bets initiatives, focused on completing work for customers, managing money and serving larger businesses, grew 34 percent and represented 30 percent of fiscal 2026 revenue.

What the price assumes

At $269.40, the reverse DCF implies annual growth of -1.3% in free cash flow after stock pay for ten years, using a 10.2% discount rate.

That compares with delivered growth of 15.9% a year over the last 10 years and the TenQ check's 9.9% bar, which slows that record halfway toward 4%.

Intuit generated $8.7 billion of free cash flow over the last twelve months, before the stock pay adjustment used in that comparison.

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What could change the story

  • Revenue growth of 13.9% over the last twelve months trails the 14.3% annual pace over the last three years and the TenQ sector benchmark of 17.0%, leaving the growth checks at 2 of 6.
  • Total U.S. TurboTax units fell to 39.0 million in fiscal 2026 from 39.9 million in fiscal 2025, while competition from free products and uncertainty about monetizing AI complicate customer growth.
  • Mailchimp weighed on fiscal 2026 expansion, with Global Business Solutions growing 16 percent including Mailchimp and 18 percent excluding it, highlighting acquisition performance risk.
  • Reliance on outside distribution platforms and the possibility of incorrect expert advice could affect customer access and trust, while Credit Karma faces compliance obligations under a Federal Trade Commission user data security order.
  • Expanding lending products increases exposure to borrower credit risk and economic conditions, adding a different source of risk alongside Intuit's software and service operations.

What to watch next

  • For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Intuit expects revenue of $4,294 million to $4,313 million and GAAP operating income of $716 million to $729 million.
  • For fiscal 2027, its guidance calls for revenue of $23,279 million to $23,512 million and GAAP operating income growth of 26 percent to 27 percent, making profit growth relative to revenue an important measure of execution.
  • Separate Mailchimp reporting beginning in fiscal 2027 will clarify its performance, while Global Business Solutions guidance of 13 percent to 14 percent growth reflects the changed segment structure.
  • Subsequent releases can show whether TurboTax Live growth accompanies stronger filing volumes and whether including stock compensation in non-GAAP results makes the recurring cost of employee equity clearer.

Sources

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