TenQ

The JPMorgan Chase story

JPMorgan Chase is America's largest bank, spanning lending, markets, payments and wealth management, with the central question of whether client activity and asset inflows can sustain earnings growth as lower rates constrain lending income.

Written from JPMorgan Chase's own filings with the SEC, and rewritten when it publishes a new earnings release. Updated 2026-09-30.

  • $336.59share price, last close
  • $894.7Bmarket value
  • 24/36TenQ Score checks passed

The story in brief

  • Gains lifted earnings. In the quarter to June 2026, net income rose 41% to $21.2 billion, but growth was 13% excluding gains related to Visa shares and certain equity investments.
  • Client activity accelerated. In the quarter to June 2026, Markets revenue rose 35% and investment banking fees rose 30%, while Asset & Wealth Management attracted $50 billion of long-term net inflows.
  • Capital exceeds requirements. At June 2026, the estimated Standardized common equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 14.1%, compared with the regulatory requirement including buffers of 11.5%.

What drives the business

  • Under the Chase and J.P. Morgan brands, JPMorgan serves millions of predominantly U.S. customers and corporate, institutional and government clients globally, with U.S. bank branches in 48 states and Washington, D.C.
  • Its Consumer & Community Banking, Commercial & Investment Bank, and Asset & Wealth Management segments combine deposit gathering and lending with payments, securities trading, investment banking and investment management.
  • Commercial lending accounts for $846.8 billion of its loan book, exceeding the combined consumer and card books of $617.0 billion.
  • In the quarter to June 2026, Markets revenue reached $12.1 billion, including an 86% increase in Equity Markets revenue, while Payments revenue rose 12% to $5.3 billion on higher deposit balances and fee growth.
  • Asset & Wealth Management held $5.1 trillion in assets under management in June 2026, up 18% from a year earlier, with higher market levels and continued inflows helping segment revenue grow 19%.

What the price assumes

TenQ does not measure the growth implied by JPMorgan's price through a reverse DCF because free cash flow does not meaningfully measure a bank's earnings.

At $336.59 per share, the earnings multiple in TenQ's historical comparison is 14.39 against 9.12, failing the check for a multiple below its own history.

Revenue growth of 13.5% over the last twelve months exceeded TenQ's sector comparison of 9.9%, and annual growth of 12.3% over the last three years exceeded 8.9%, helping JPMorgan pass 6 of 6 Growth checks.

What could change the story

  • Lower rates partly offset the benefit of higher deposit and loan balances in the quarter to June 2026, while JPMorgan's 2.0% interest margin falls below TenQ's sector comparison of 3.3%.
  • JPMorgan fails TenQ's credit-cost check, and Consumer & Community Banking net charge-offs rose $70 million to $2.2 billion in the quarter to June 2026, predominantly driven by Card Services.
  • Consumer & Community Banking expenses grew 13% against revenue growth of 8% in the quarter to June 2026, limiting net income growth to 3%.
  • Management's July 2026 outlook identified geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation, large global fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices as possible sources of disruption to an otherwise resilient economy.

What to watch next

  • Management described investment banking sentiment as constructive in July 2026, making subsequent fee growth and Markets revenue important tests of whether elevated client activity persists.
  • Net interest income excluding Markets, which rose 4% to $23.7 billion in the quarter to June 2026, will show whether deposit and loan growth continue to offset lower rates.
  • Card Services' net charge-off rate of 3.34% and the firmwide $149 million net reserve build in the quarter to June 2026 provide reference points for changes in credit quality.
  • Subsequent capital distributions will show how management uses the $50 billion repurchase authorization effective July 2026 and whether the board approves its announced intention to raise the quarterly dividend to $1.65 per share.

Sources

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