The Moderna story

What drives the business

• Moderna's strategy is to expand its seasonal vaccine franchise and use the cash it generates to fund oncology and rare disease medicines, following $1.9 billion of revenue in 2025 largely from COVID vaccines.
• Its COVID products are Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE, with mNEXSPIKE becoming its leading U.S. retail product after its launch in the third quarter of 2025, while mRESVIA extends the franchise into RSV.
• Long-term partnerships in the UK, Canada and Australia support local manufacturing, and UK deliveries helped offset lower COVID vaccine revenue in the U.S. and South America in the quarter to June 2026.
• Moderna also signed a Brazilian manufacturing collaboration supporting COVID vaccine supply and a European Commission procurement contract for up to 24 million doses of mRESVIA.
• Beyond vaccines, Moderna is developing the individualized cancer therapy intismeran with Merck and entered a collaboration with Recordati in January 2026 to advance its propionic acidemia treatment through development and potential commercialization.

What the price assumes

The reverse DCF cannot measure the growth implied by the price because free cash flow and operating earnings are both negative, leaving the valuation dependent on future profits.

The $78.8 billion market value represents 35.4x sales, against revenue growth of -27.6% and free cash flow of -$1.2 billion over the last twelve months.

Moderna passes 0 of 6 TenQ Value checks, including failing the sales multiple check requiring under 2.5x and the free cash flow yield check requiring above 3%.

What could change the story

• Cost reductions have not closed the operating gap, with an operating margin of -149.0% over the last twelve months and 0 of 6 TenQ Quality checks passed.
• The quarter to June 2026 included $41 million of inventory write-downs and $23 million of unused manufacturing capacity costs, showing the expense of maintaining production beyond demand.
• The norovirus vaccine did not meet the statistical criteria for early success at its Phase 3 interim analysis, and Moderna is preparing to enroll an additional cohort.
• Cash, cash equivalents and investments were $6.9 billion at June 2026, before the $950 million litigation settlement payment in July 2026.
• The proposed convertible notes would add financing obligations and could result in share issuance upon conversion, although Moderna also proposed a capped hedge intended to reduce dilution.

What to watch next

• The next releases will test Moderna's plan for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, with approximately 55% of second-half revenue expected in the third quarter.
• Research spending and cash use will show progress against guidance for approximately $2.9 billion of research and development expenses and $4.7 to $5.2 billion of cash and investments at the end of 2026.
• Regulatory updates for mFLUSIVA and commercial progress for the European-approved flu and COVID combination vaccine mCOMBRIAX will show whether the seasonal vaccine franchise is broadening beyond COVID.
• Moderna anticipates potential melanoma and propionic acidemia study results in 2026, while further financing disclosures will establish the terms and status of its proposed convertible notes.

Sources

• Moderna's earnings release, filed with the SEC
• Its latest 10-Q or 10-K, for the risk factors
• The MRNA stock report, for every figure and check