TenQ

The Redwire story

Redwire is a space and defense technology company whose central question is whether its expanded uncrewed aircraft business and record backlog can produce profits and cash.

Redwire stock reportTenQ Score 8/36 · every chart and check from its filings
  • $8.39share price, last close
  • $2.1Bmarket value
  • 8/36TenQ Score checks passed

The story in brief

  • Defense reshapes Redwire. The June 2025 acquisition of Edge Autonomy added uncrewed airborne systems, with consideration including $160 million in cash and 49.8 million shares.
  • Growth without cash generation. Revenue reached $117.1 million in the quarter to June 2026, up 89.6% from a year earlier, but free cash flow over the last twelve months was -$98 million.
  • More financial room. Redwire ended the quarter to June 2026 with $607.8 million in total liquidity after raising equity during the first half of 2026 and reducing term loans from $90.0 million to $50.0 million.

What drives the business

  • Redwire combines aerospace infrastructure and autonomous systems across national security, civil and commercial markets, with the June 2025 Edge Autonomy acquisition expanding its defense technology business.
  • Its Space and Defense Tech segments span airborne and space-based systems, supported by operations at 28 locations in North America and Europe.
  • Stalker Block 30 received follow-on awards from the U.S. Marine Corps and Army, extending Redwire's relationships with military customers.
  • Penguin uncrewed aerial systems secured a multi-year contract valued at high eight-figures from an undisclosed NATO country and a contract from Taiwan Color Optics, Inc. for the Taiwan Coast Guard.
  • Redwire delivered nearly 200 Octopus intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance payloads during the first half of 2026, an increase of more than 15% from a year earlier, and introduced the E140 MWIR and E180 HD MWIR products.

What the price assumes

The reverse DCF cannot measure the growth embedded in the price because free cash flow and operating earnings are both negative, leaving the valuation dependent on future profits.

The $2.5 billion market value represents 5.9x sales, compared with the TenQ sales valuation check's bar of under 2.5x.

Revenue grew 63.1% over the last twelve months, faster than its 27.8% annual pace over the last three years, but Redwire passed 0 of 6 TenQ Value checks.

What could change the story

  • The 27.8% gross margin in the quarter to June 2026 marked improvement, but the operating margin over the last twelve months remained -50.5% and free cash flow was -$98 million.
  • Equity financing strengthens liquidity while diluting ownership, with the share count up 88.8% over the last three years and stock-based pay of $74 million over the last twelve months.
  • Integrating Edge Autonomy and converting the $542.1 million contracted backlog into revenue remain execution risks, while contract mix can affect margins and cash flow.
  • A limited number of customers account for a high percentage of revenue, and dependence on U.S. government contracts exposes Redwire to budget delays and shutdowns.

What to watch next

  • Redwire reaffirmed revenue guidance of $450 million to $500 million for the year ending December 2026 after recording $214.0 million in the first half of 2026.
  • Backlog conversion and new orders will test that outlook, following a book-to-bill ratio of 1.42 in the quarter to June 2026.
  • The next releases will show whether the 27.8% gross margin is sustained and whether Space and Defense Tech performance translates into lower cash use rather than revenue growth alone.

Sources

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