The Sandisk story

What drives the business

• Sandisk became independent of Western Digital in February 2025 and combines NAND chip design, manufacturing and systems engineering with a strategy of using long-term customer agreements to reduce exposure to memory industry cycles.
• Its products span enterprise SSDs, storage embedded in devices and removable consumer products, with Edge revenue of $12,160 million and Consumer revenue of $2,935 million in fiscal 2026.
• Datacenter products serve public clouds, private clouds and enterprises, including AI workloads, and revenue reached $2,977 million in the quarter to July 2026, up 103% sequentially.
• Sandisk signed five additional New Business Model agreements in the quarter to July 2026, including three with new customers and two expansions, under a framework intended to improve production planning and revenue visibility.
• In March 2026, Sandisk Technologies entered into a subscription agreement for a strategic equity investment in Nanya Technology.

What the price assumes

At $1,660.46 per share, the reverse DCF implies free cash flow after stock pay grows 9.0% a year for ten years, using a 10.3% discount rate.

That is below the TenQ check's 24.4% growth bar, which slows Sandisk's 44.8% annual revenue growth record halfway toward 4%.

The comparison uses revenue growth over the last three fiscal years as a substitute for cash flow growth, so it does not establish a comparable record of cash growth after stock pay.

Value SNDK on your own assumptions

What could change the story

• Higher pricing accounted for approximately two-thirds of sequential revenue growth in the quarter to July 2026, leaving profitability sensitive to pricing reversals and competitive pressure.
• For fiscal 2026, Sandisk reported adjusted free cash flow of $8,743 million after adjusting for Flash Ventures activity and removing the impact of NBM prepayments and deposits, making the durability of underlying cash generation important.
• Reliance on Kioxia and other strategic relationships, manufacturing disruptions and technology transitions could affect Sandisk's ability to meet customer commitments.
• The earnings yield of 4.4% falls below the 5.3% Treasury yield in the TenQ check, despite the reverse DCF growth assumption being below the check's growth bar.
• Shares increased 6.9% over three years, and the expanded repurchase authorization does not by itself establish a sustained reduction in share count.

What to watch next

• For the first fiscal quarter of 2027, Sandisk expects revenue of $10.30 billion to $10.80 billion and non-GAAP gross margin of 83.0% to 85.0%, making pricing, volumes and customer mix central measures of progress.
• Its non-GAAP diluted net income per share guidance is $44.00 to $46.00, compared with $39.25 in the quarter to July 2026.
• Subsequent releases will show whether datacenter growth and additional NBM agreements translate into adjusted free cash flow rather than primarily advance payments.
• Actual repurchases and the resulting share count will show how Sandisk uses its $15.5 billion remaining authorization.

Sources

• Sandisk's earnings release, filed with the SEC
• Its latest 10-Q or 10-K, for the risk factors
• The SNDK stock report, for every figure and check