The Vistra story

What drives the business

• Vistra integrates approximately 44,000 megawatts of generation capacity with approximately 5 million retail customers, including approximately 2.6 million in Texas, linking its power plants with customer demand through brands including TXU Energy.
• The Meta agreements extend that model into long-term nuclear power supply, with part of their contribution to Adjusted EBITDA expected by Vistra in 2027 and excluded from its 2026 guidance.
• The pending Cogentrix acquisition covers 10 natural gas generation facilities totaling approximately 5,500 MW, following the completed Lotus acquisition of approximately 2,600 MW in October 2025.
• Helix Digital Infrastructure pairs Vistra with KKR, KIA, and NVIDIA, with Vistra committing up to $1.0 billion and becoming its preferred power provider.
• Capacity payments also underpin generation earnings, with Vistra clearing approximately 10,924 megawatts in PJM's auction for the planning year spanning 2028 and 2029 at a weighted average price of $325.00 per megawatt-day.

What the price assumes

At $160.50, the reverse DCF implies free cash flow after stock pay growing 11.4% a year for ten years, using a 10.3% discount rate.

Vistra delivered 8.5% annual growth in that measure over the last 5 years, while the TenQ check sets a 6.2% bar by slowing the historical record halfway toward 4%.

The implied growth therefore exceeds both the historical pace and the check's more restrained assumption, while the free cash flow yield is 4.2% against 9.8% in its own history.

Value VST on your own assumptions

What could change the story

• Total debt of $19.6 billion contrasts with $435 million of cash and short-term investments, although available liquidity at June 30, 2026 was approximately $6,295 million, largely through credit facilities.
• Vistra passes 1 of 6 TenQ financial health checks, with interest coverage of 3.15 against the check's 5.00 bar.
• The Cogentrix transaction still requires completion and successful integration, and its terms include approximately $2.3 billion of cash consideration and assumption of approximately $1.5 billion of indebtedness.
• Extreme weather can raise electricity demand while reducing available generation, and wholesale price limits and capacity market rules can constrain revenue.
• Adjusted earnings do not eliminate accounting volatility or growth spending, as net income of $305 million in the quarter to June 2026 included an unrealized hedge loss of $472 million, while Vistra's adjusted cash flow guidance is before growth.

What to watch next

• The next releases will test Vistra's reaffirmed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6,800 million to $7,600 million and Ongoing Operations Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth guidance of $3,925 million to $4,725 million.
• Generation reliability and realized prices remain important despite extensive hedging, which covered approximately 100% of expected 2026 generation, about 94% for 2027, and about 72% for 2028 as of August 3, 2026.
• Cogentrix closing progress, Meta contribution timing, and Helix funding commitments will show how the expansion translates into earnings and cash demands.
• Reported free cash flow, debt, and available liquidity will show whether stronger adjusted earnings are keeping pace with spending and shareholder distributions.

Sources

• Vistra's earnings release, filed with the SEC
• Its latest 10-Q or 10-K, for the risk factors
• The VST stock report, for every figure and check