The Walmart story

What drives the business

• Walmart's everyday low price model combines purchasing scale with stores that also fulfill online orders, serving approximately 280 million customers weekly through more than 10,900 stores in 19 countries and its digital platforms.
• Walmart U.S. anchors the business with groceries, general merchandise and health and wellness products, generating $483.0 billion in net sales in fiscal 2026, or 68% of consolidated net sales.
• Walmart International, including Flipkart and PhonePe in India, generated $130.4 billion in fiscal 2026 net sales, while the membership warehouse business Sam's Club U.S. generated $93.0 billion.
• Store pickup, delivery and marketplace activity drove global eCommerce growth in the quarter to July 2026, while Walmart Connect advertising grew 43% excluding VIZIO and Flipkart Ads led international advertising growth of 20%.
• Walmart+ recorded a second quarter high for net membership additions in the quarter to July 2026, while Sam's Club U.S. membership fee revenue grew 6%, supported by member growth and greater participation in Plus memberships.

What the price assumes

At $108.73, TenQ's reverse DCF implies free cash flow after stock pay grows 28.2% a year for ten years, using a 10.2% discount rate.

Walmart delivered -1.9% annual growth on that measure over the last 10 years, compared with the TenQ check's 1.1% bar, which moves the historical rate halfway toward 4%.

The implied growth therefore requires a substantial change from Walmart's cash generation record, even as revenue growth over the last twelve months reached 6.2%, above its three-year annual pace of 5.3%.

Value WMT on your own assumptions

What could change the story

• The 28.8% operating income increase in the quarter to July 2026 was not purely underlying growth, and Walmart plans to direct remaining tariff refunds toward prices and customer experience.
• Higher claims expense, depreciation and associate healthcare costs weighed on Walmart U.S. operating expenses in the quarter to July 2026, creating a counterweight to improved eCommerce economics.
• Walmart's 4.4% operating margin over the last twelve months falls below the TenQ specialty retail comparison of 5.0%, leaving less room to absorb additional costs.
• The near-term liquidity check fails at 0.77 against a 1.50 bar, while dividends and share repurchases amounted to 108.7% of free cash flow, limiting the cash cushion for competing uses.

What to watch next

• For the third quarter of fiscal 2027, Walmart expects net sales growth of 3.0% to 3.75% and adjusted operating income growth of 2.0% to 4.0%, both in constant currency, with adjusted EPS of $0.62 to $0.64.
• Its raised fiscal 2027 outlook calls for net sales growth of 4.0% to 5.0% and adjusted operating income growth of 7.0% to 8.5%, both in constant currency, with adjusted EPS of $2.80 to $2.87.
• The shift of Flipkart's Big Billion Days into the fourth fiscal quarter complicates the next sales comparison, while management says the second and third fiscal quarters should be considered together because of tariff refund reinvestment.
• With fiscal 2027 capital expenditures expected at approximately 4.0% of net sales, free cash flow alongside eCommerce, advertising and membership growth will show whether the digital expansion is translating into cash.

Sources

• Walmart's earnings release, filed with the SEC
• Its latest 10-Q or 10-K, for the risk factors
• The WMT stock report, for every figure and check