TenQ

The TeraWulf story

TeraWulf develops and operates data centers for AI and high-performance computing, with the central question of whether its Fluidstack and Anthropic leases can become cash-generating operations fast enough to support the buildout.

TeraWulf stock reportTenQ Score 2/36 · every chart and check from its filings
  • $11.68share price, last close
  • $5.8Bmarket value
  • 2/36TenQ Score checks passed

The story in brief

  • Leasing takes the lead. HPC lease revenue reached $31.9 million, approximately 71% of total revenue, in the quarter to June 2026 as TeraWulf shifted away from bitcoin mining.
  • Anthropic expands the commitments. The 20-year Anthropic lease covers approximately 401 MW at Justified and represents approximately $19 billion in contracted revenue over the initial term, rather than revenue already earned.
  • Construction outpaces cash generation. Free cash flow was -$2.5 billion over the last twelve months, leaving the development program dependent on financing and capital raised from asset transactions.

What drives the business

  • TeraWulf’s transition from bitcoin mining to HPC hosting rests on controlling land, power connections, electrical systems and cooling infrastructure, then leasing capacity through long-term customer agreements.
  • Lake Mariner’s contracted critical IT capacity includes 60 MW for Core42 and 378 MW for Fluidstack, whose lease obligations benefit from Google’s credit support.
  • Delivery of CB-3 in early July 2026 brought Lake Mariner’s revenue-generating capacity to 102 MW and unlocked $600 million of Google’s credit support, with another 336 MW under construction.
  • The Anthropic agreement extends the platform into Kentucky, with approximately $19 billion of contracted revenue over its initial term and up to approximately $33 billion if both extension options are exercised.
  • TeraWulf also agreed to monetize its entire 50.1% Abernathy Joint Venture interest for approximately $530 million in cash, redirecting capital toward campuses where it has direct ownership and operational control.

What the price assumes

The reverse DCF cannot measure the growth implied by the $14.97 share price because free cash flow and operating earnings are both negative, so the valuation rests on future profits rather than an established positive cash flow base.

The $7.5 billion market value represents 45.2x sales against $165 million of revenue over the last twelve months, above the TenQ sales check’s under 2.5x bar.

Revenue growth of 14.6% over the last twelve months trails the 123.8% annual pace over the last three years, while the -33.5% free cash flow yield fails TenQ’s above 3% check.

What could change the story

  • Cash and short-term investments of $2.6 billion sit alongside total debt of $3.1 billion and substantial construction spending, while TenQ’s financial health checks passed 0 of 6.
  • An operating margin of -250.4% over the last twelve months shows that the revenue transition has not yet produced operating profitability.
  • Funding can dilute existing holders, with shares up 259.4% over the last three years and stock-based pay of $196 million over the last twelve months.
  • Construction delays, equipment availability and power approvals could postpone rent commencement, and Google’s support for Fluidstack’s obligations does not remove TeraWulf’s responsibility to complete and operate the facilities.

What to watch next

  • The next Lake Mariner milestones are phased delivery and rent commencement for CB-4 during the second half of 2026 and initial phased delivery for CB-5 in early 2027, with lease revenue and cash use showing whether completed capacity is improving the financial profile.
  • TeraWulf reaffirmed its goal of contracting 250 MW to 500 MW of incremental critical IT capacity annually, while Anthropic’s initial delivery is expected in the second half of 2027 and full delivery in early 2028.
  • The October 2026 Muskie amendment increased contracted power to 1 GW and advanced the second 500 MW phase to 2029, subject to Kentucky Public Service Commission approval and Kentucky Power’s construction schedule.
  • Completion of the approximately $530 million Abernathy transaction and subsequent financing disclosures will show how much capital is available for the remaining buildout.

Sources

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