Zillow stock report · DCF calculator
Z DCF calculator
Value Zillow on your own assumptions. It starts from a steady company, with free cash flow, cash and shares from Z's SEC filings. Change any of them and see what the shares would be worth.
On your assumptions
$20.86 a share24% below today's $27.44
If free cash flow grows as set, buying at $27.44 would earn about 8.2% a year, less than the 10.2% you asked for.
At that pace, $27.44 becomes about $40.61 in five years, counting the cash the business hands back or keeps.
Show the workings
What the value is made of
- Cash flows, years 1 to 10$2.0B
- Everything after year ten$2.0B
- Cash and short-term investments$682M
- All of it, over 0.22bn shares$4.7B
How much the answer moves
Value per share as the return you want and early growth change around your choice.
| Return ↓ · growth → | -5.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 10.0% | 15.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2% | $18.56 | $22.55 | $27.37 | $33.15 | $40.03 |
| 9.2% | $16.27 | $19.60 | $23.62 | $28.43 | $34.15 |
| 10.2% | $14.58 | $17.43 | $20.86 | $24.95 | $29.81 |
| 11.2% | $13.28 | $15.76 | $18.73 | $22.28 | $26.49 |
| 12.2% | $12.25 | $14.43 | $17.05 | $20.17 | $23.86 |
Year by year
| Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | $271M | $284M | $299M | $314M | $329M | $342M | $356M | $370M | $385M | $401M |
| Worth today | $246M | $234M | $223M | $213M | $203M | $192M | $181M | $171M | $161M | $152M |
Z's figures are from its SEC filings; the price is the last close. The estimate is yours: it is not a price target, and it is not advice.
How this DCF works
- Free cash flow: operating cash flow less capital spending and the stock paid to staff (which dilutes every other shareholder): $-105M over the last twelve months, after $363M of stock pay.
- Ten years of growth: one rate for years 1 to 5 and another for 6 to 10, then a steady rate forever.
- Discounting: each year's cash is worth less today at the discount rate. The starting rate is the 10-year Treasury yield (5.2%) plus 5 points.
- To value per share: add cash and short-term investments ($682M) and divide by the shares outstanding. Debt is not taken off again: free cash flow is already after the interest on it.
- What the price assumes: the growth at which this model gives back today's price. The Z report scores it against the free cash flow growth the company has delivered, slowed halfway toward the economy's growth, because ten more years at a past pace is rare.