MP Materials vs USA Rare Earth · to 2026-10-16

MP vs USAR stock comparison

→MP Materials (MP) and USA Rare Earth (USAR) are close in size, worth $7.2B and $4.0B, and MP Materials passes more of the TenQ Score checks, 7 of 36 against 4.

MP -52.1% · USAR -63.1% over 1Y
29.553.677.7101.8125.8Oct '25Dec '25Mar '26May '26Aug '26Oct '26
The TenQ Radar

TenQ Score: MP vs USAR

Each company is scored on the same checks, computed from its own filings: value, growth, quality, financial health, shareholder returns and trend. The fuller the shape, the more checks it passes.

→No part of the score separates them by more than 2 checks, and the widest gap is on Growth. They score the same on 4 parts of the score, so the difference between them is narrower than the totals suggest.

All checksMP7/36USAR4/36

→MP Materials brings in $305M of revenue a year to USA Rare Earth's $13M, 23.2 times as much. MP Materials has not made a profit over the last twelve months, so their profits cannot be compared yet.

I

Value: MP vs USAR

MP0/6USAR0/6

MP Materials and USA Rare Earth have no profit to price, so the two are compared on revenue instead: a price to sales of 23.4x at MP Materials and 300.4x at USA Rare Earth.

-MP-USARwhat you pay per $1 of profit
23.4xMP300.4xUSARwhat you pay per $1 of revenue
-7.1%MP-6.2%USARcash earned per $ of price
-MP-USARwhole-business multiple
Valuation history

Is MP or USAR more expensive against its earnings, sales and book value?

→On the latest figures, MP's price to book value is 3.7x, against 1.6x at USAR.

What this measures

What the market has paid for each dollar of earnings, sales or book value, every year, with today's multiple as the last point and the median drawn across.

What good looks like. There is no good level. What matters is the distance from the company's own history, and whether the business has changed enough to justify it.

If it rises or falls. A multiple above its own median means the market expects more than it used to, so more has to go right. Below the median means the opposite, and the question is whether the pessimism is deserved. A multiple can also fall because earnings rose, which is the good way.

Free cash flow yield

Which earns more free cash flow for its price, MP or USAR?

→On the latest figures, MP's free cash flow yield is -7.1%, against -6.2% at USAR.

What this measures

Free cash flow divided by market value: the cash the business generates for every dollar you pay for it. The inverse of a price-to-cash multiple.

What good looks like. A yield at or above the company's own history, and one that compares well with what cash is worth elsewhere.

If it rises or falls. The yield rises when cash grows or the price falls, so a high yield is either a bargain or a warning about the cash continuing. Read it beside the cash conversion chart, which shows whether the cash is holding up.

What does “Value” actually mean?

Value asks what you pay for each dollar of earnings, sales or cash a business produces. A high multiple is not automatically bad, since fast growers can earn theirs, but a price far above a company's own history means the market expects a lot to go right. Each company is measured against its own past and its sector.

How each scored · MP 0/6 · USAR 0/6

Value, check by check

MPUSAR
Cheaper than its own history (sales - not yet profitable)MPFails23.43 vs 16.22USARNot scoredunder 3 years of history
Cheap on sales (under 2.5x)MPFails23.43 vs 2.50 (fixed yardstick)USARFails300.36 vs 2.50 (fixed yardstick)
Cheap on enterprise value vs sales (under 3x)MPFails21.73 vs 3.00 (fixed yardstick)USARFails184.10 vs 3.00 (fixed yardstick)
Free cash flow yield above 3%MPFailsFCF yield -7.1%USARFailsFCF yield -6.2%
Cheap on enterprise value (under 14x EBITDA)MPFailsno EBITDA to value: -$12M over the last twelve monthsUSARFailsno EBITDA to value: -$123M over the last twelve months
Priced for less growth than its record suggestsMPFailsnot profitable: no free cash flow or earnings for the price to rest onUSARFailsnot profitable: no free cash flow or earnings for the price to rest on
II

Growth: MP vs USAR

MP2/6USAR0/6
+26.1%MP-USARvs the year before
-24.8%MP-USARa year, compounded
-MP-USARnet income growth
-MP-USARa year, compounded
Revenue history

Is MP or USAR growing revenue faster?

→On the latest figures, MP's revenue is $305M, against $13M at USAR.

What this measures

The money customers paid, before any costs are taken out. Each bar is one quarter or, on the annual view, a full financial year; the last annual bar may be the trailing twelve months, which the footnote marks.

What good looks like. Growth that repeats, rather than one strong year carrying the chart, and a trailing twelve months keeping pace with the last full year.

If it rises or falls. Revenue is the hardest line to flatter, so a rise is the most trustworthy kind of growth. A fall puts pressure on every margin below it, because costs rarely come down as quickly as sales do.

Profit history

Is MP or USAR growing its net profit faster?

→On the latest figures, MP's net profit is -$61M, against -$284M at USAR.

What this measures

What is left after every cost, including tax and interest. The bottom line of the income statement.

What good looks like. Profit growing at least as fast as revenue, which means the business is keeping more of each sale as it gets bigger.

If it rises or falls. Profit can move for reasons revenue cannot explain - a one-off charge, a tax change, a write-down - so a single sharp year is worth checking against the margin chart before reading it as a trend.

What does “Growth” actually mean?

Growth here is what each company has reported to the SEC, not a forecast: the last year, the three-year pace, and whether growth is speeding up or slowing down. Both companies are measured the same way, so their lines can be read against each other.

How each scored · MP 2/6 · USAR 0/6

Growth, check by check

MPUSAR
Outgrew the market over the last twelve monthsMPPasses26.1% vs 13.0% (market 70th pct)USARNot scoredunder 8 quarters of history
Sustained growth beats the market (3 years)MPFails-24.8% vs 10.8% (market 70th pct)USARNot scoredunder 3 years of history
Profits grew over the last twelve monthsMPFailsloss-making: TTM net income -$61MUSARFailsloss-making: TTM net income -$284M
Profit growth beats its peers (3 years)MPFailsloss-making: TTM net income -$61MUSARFailsloss-making: TTM net income -$284M
Growth is speeding up, not slowingMPPasseslast twelve months 26.1% vs three-year pace -24.8%USARNot scoredunder 3 years of history
Grew per share, not just in totalMPFails-51.6% vs 0.0%USARNot scoredunder 3 years of per-share history
III

Quality: MP vs USAR

MP0/6USAR0/6

MP Materials keeps more of each sale: a operating margin of -41.5% against -949.5%, 908 percentage points more on every dollar of revenue.

-MP-9.7%USARkept after direct costs
-41.5%MP-949.5%USARkept after running costs
-3.4%MP-USARprofit on shareholders' money
-$505MMP-$246MUSARlast 12 months
Returns on capital

Which earns a higher return on its capital, MP or USAR?

→On the latest figures, MP's return on capital employed is -3.6%, against -4.2% at USAR.

What this measures

Two returns side by side: on shareholders' capital (ROE), and on all the capital in the business including debt (ROCE).

What good looks like. Both comfortably above roughly 10%, and close together. A wide gap means borrowing, not operations, is doing the work.

If it rises or falls. A high ROE built on debt looks like quality until the debt has to be refinanced. ROCE is the harder number to flatter, which is why both are shown.

What does “Quality” actually mean?

Quality asks whether growth turns into real money: how much of each sale is kept as profit, whether that profit arrives as cash, and what return the business earns on the money invested in it.

How each scored · MP 0/6 · USAR 0/6

Quality, check by check

MPUSAR
Better net margins than the marketMPFails-19.9% vs 11.0% (market 70th pct)USARFails-9.7% vs 52.4% (market 70th pct)
Runs leaner than the market (operating margin)MPFails-41.5% vs 13.2% (market 70th pct)USARFails-949.5% vs 13.2% (market 70th pct)
Actually profitableMPFailsTTM net income -$61MUSARFailsTTM net income -$284M
Earns well on shareholders' moneyMPFails-3.4% vs 12.3% (market 70th pct)USARNot scoredequity or income unavailable
Earns a real return on the capital it employsMPFails-3.6% vs 10.0%USARFails-4.2% vs 10.0%
Generates cash despite the lossMPFailsTTM operating cash flow -$84M on a net loss of $61MUSARFailsTTM operating cash flow -$106M on a net loss of $284M
IV

Financial health: MP vs USAR

MP4/6USAR4/6

USA Rare Earth carries far less debt for its size, 0.00x of debt for each dollar of equity against 0.48x. The gap matters most in a bad year.

0.48xMP0.00xUSARborrowed vs owned
9.5xMP32.8xUSARnear-term bills coverage
-3xMP-1041xUSARearnings ÷ interest bill
$1.5BMP$1.5BUSARcash plus short-term investments
Debt & cash

How much debt do MP and USAR carry, against the cash they hold?

→On the latest figures, MP's total debt is $935M, against $0.00 at USAR.

What this measures

Total borrowings against cash on hand, with debt as a multiple of shareholders' equity, and how many times profit covers the interest bill.

What good looks like. Interest covered comfortably - roughly eight times or more - and debt that is not a large multiple of equity.

If it rises or falls. Debt is only a problem when it has to be repaid or refinanced in a bad year, so cover matters more than the amount. Rising debt with rising cover is a business borrowing to grow; rising debt with falling cover is the combination that ends badly.

Near-term liquidity

Can MP and USAR cover the bills due within a year?

→On the latest figures, MP's current ratio is 9.5x, against 32.8x at USAR.

What this measures

Current assets over current liabilities: what the company can turn into cash within a year against what it owes within a year.

What good looks like. Comfortably above 1.0, and not falling year after year. Below 1.0 means near-term bills exceed near-term resources, which is normal for some business models and a warning in others.

If it rises or falls. Inventory and receivables build it up; short-term borrowing and payables pull it down. A retailer that turns stock over quickly can run lower than a manufacturer and be perfectly sound.

Shareholders' equity

Is shareholders' equity growing faster at MP or USAR?

→On the latest figures, MP's shareholders' equity is $2.0B, against $2.5B at USAR.

What this measures

What would be left for shareholders if every asset were sold at its book value and every debt repaid. Book value, in other words.

What good looks like. Equity growing as retained profits build up, unless the company is deliberately returning more than it earns.

If it rises or falls. Equity falls for two very different reasons: buybacks, which return money to you, and losses, which do not. The distinction is the whole story, and negative equity means liabilities now exceed assets, which makes debt-to-equity and return on equity meaningless rather than alarming.

What does “Financial health” actually mean?

Financial health asks one question: could the business get through a bad year? It looks at how much each company has borrowed, how easily its profits cover the interest, and how much cash it holds against the bills due soon.

How each scored · MP 4/6 · USAR 4/6

Financial health, check by check

MPUSAR
Comfortable near-term liquidityMPPasses9.51 vs 1.50USARPasses32.79 vs 1.50
Debt isn't dominatingMPPasses0.48 vs 1.00USARPasses0.00 vs 1.00
Debt trending the right wayMPPassesdebt/equity 0.48 now vs 0.67 five years agoUSARNot scoredunder 5 years of balance-sheet history
Earnings cover the interestMPFails-3.34 vs 5.00USARPassesno debt
Converts sales to cash better than the marketMPFails-27.5% vs 21.6% (market 70th pct)USARFails-805.9% vs 21.6% (market 70th pct)
Self-fundingMPPasses2.88 years of cash at current burnUSARPasses6.23 years of cash at current burn
V

Shareholder returns: MP vs USAR

MP1/6USAR0/6

Neither MP Materials nor USA Rare Earth pays a meaningful dividend, so any cash they return to shareholders comes through buying back their own shares.

+0.00%MP-USARbought back, last 12 months, over market value
-MP-USARat the current rate
$0.00MP-USARdividends plus buybacks
$41MMP$18MUSARlast 12 months, offsets buybacks
What does “Shareholder returns” actually mean?

Shareholder returns is the cash a company hands back to the people who own its shares, through dividends and by buying its own shares back, and whether the stock it issues to staff quietly undoes those buybacks.

How each scored · MP 1/6 · USAR 0/6

Shareholder returns, check by check

MPUSAR
Share count isn't climbingMPPassesshares down 12.1% over 3 yearsUSARNot scoredunder 3 years of share counts
Buybacks outpace the stock issued to staffMPFailsno buybacks against $41M of stock compensationUSARFailsno buybacks against $18M of stock compensation
Hands cash back to ownersMPFailsno dividends and no buybacks in the last twelve monthsUSARFailsno dividends and no buybacks in the last twelve months
Meaningful yield to owners (dividends and buybacks)MPFails0.00 returned, 0.0% of market valueUSARFails0.00 returned, 0.0% of market value
Buybacks are sustained, not one-offMPFails0.00 bought back in the last twelve months, $225M the year before; no dividendUSARFailspays no dividend and reports no buybacks
Buybacks growingMPFails0.00 vs $225M the year before; no dividendUSARFailspays no dividend and reports no buybacks
VI

Trend: MP vs USAR

MP0/6USAR0/6
-28.6%MP-45.2%USARthe long-term trend line
-12.1%MP-30.8%USARshare price
-55.3%MP-68.7%USARshare price
-52.1%MP-66.6%USARdrawdown from the peak
Trend

Which way are MP and USAR shares trending?

MP
Price chart loads as you scroll…
USAR
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Charts by TradingView

→MP is in a downtrend: the price is below the cloud where recent trading settled and that cloud is still falling. USAR is in a downtrend: the price is below the cloud where recent trading settled and that cloud is still falling.

How the trend is worked out

Trend reads the share price only: where it sits against its own long-term averages and how it has moved against the S&P 500. It says nothing about the business, which the other chapters cover.

How each scored · MP 0/6 · USAR 0/6

Trend, check by check

MPUSAR
Price above its long-term trend bandMPFails$40.17, below the bottom of the trend band of $50.14USARFails$10.54, below the bottom of the trend band of $17.32
Price above its short and medium-term averagesMPFails$40.17 against the 9-day average at $43.62 and the 26-day average at $45.17USARFails$10.54 against the 9-day average at $11.94 and the 26-day average at $13.46
Short-term average above the medium-term oneMPFails9-day average $43.62 below the 26-day average $45.17, 26 trading days since they crossedUSARFails9-day average $11.94 below the 26-day average $13.46, 28 trading days since they crossed
The long-term trend band ahead is risingMPFailsthe trend band already drawn for the next 26 trading days are falling and it turns down partway throughUSARFailsthe trend band already drawn for the next 26 trading days are falling and it turns down partway through
Price above where it stood 26 trading days agoMPFails$40.17 against $51.32 26 trading days agoUSARFails$10.54 against $16.04 26 trading days ago
Beating the S&P 500 over the last yearMPFails-55.3% vs 16.0%USARFails-68.7% vs 16.0%