TenQ

The Airbnb story

Airbnb runs a marketplace for stays, experiences, and services, with its expansion beyond homes testing whether broader offerings can keep bookings growing without eroding margins.

Written from Airbnb's own filings with the SEC, and rewritten when it publishes a new earnings release. Updated 2026-09-30.

  • $156.08share price, last close
  • $92.0Bmarket value
  • 23/36TenQ Score checks passed
  • 11.5%growth a year the price assumes

The story in brief

  • Bookings accelerated. In the quarter to June 2026, Nights and Seats Booked grew 10% to 148.3 million, while revenue increased 17% to $3.6 billion.
  • Expansion meets efficiency. As Airbnb expanded its offerings in the quarter to June 2026, customer support cost per booking declined approximately 16%, partly through improvements to its AI assistant.
  • Cash growth matters. The price implies 11.5% annual growth in free cash flow after stock pay for ten years, below the delivered 12.3% but above TenQ's 8.1% check.

What drives the business

  • Airbnb earns fees from hosts and guests through a global marketplace spanning over 220 countries and regions, with over 5.5 million hosts reported in its June 2026 earnings release.
  • Its strategy combines local product and marketing efforts in less mature markets with expansion beyond accommodations, including Airbnb Services and redesigned experiences launched in May 2025.
  • In the quarter to June 2026, Gross Booking Value increased 16% to $27.2 billion as booking volume rose and Average Daily Rate increased 5% to $184, with entire homes and larger listings growing fastest.
  • Airbnb added thousands of boutique and independent hotels across more than 20 top destinations, and hotel nights grew approximately three times as fast as its homes business in the quarter to June 2026, although hotels remained a single-digit percentage of total nights.
  • Revenue divided by Gross Booking Value was 13.2% in the quarter to June 2026, unchanged from the prior comparable period, while Airbnb's planned migration of most remaining hosts to a single 15.5% service fee changes how fees are charged.

What the price assumes

At $156.08, the reverse DCF implies free cash flow after stock pay grows 11.5% a year for ten years using a 10.2% discount rate.

Airbnb delivered 12.3% growth on that measure over the last twelve months, but TenQ's check sets an 8.1% bar by slowing that record halfway to 4%, so the price assumes more sustained growth than the check allows.

Reported free cash flow was $4.8 billion over the last twelve months, alongside $1.7 billion of stock-based pay, making the distinction between reported cash flow and cash flow after stock pay important.

Value ABNB on your own assumptions

What could change the story

  • Restrictions on hosting can limit Airbnb's core supply, as New York City's regulations enacted in 2023 resulted in a de facto ban on short-term rental activities.
  • Despite faster growth in the quarter to June 2026, revenue growth of 13.6% over the last twelve months remained below the 17.0% sector benchmark in TenQ's growth check.
  • Reserve Now, Pay Later shifts collections closer to stays and affects quarterly free cash flow, while unearned fees of $2.8 billion at June 30, 2026 remained relatively stable compared with the prior comparable date.
  • The near-term liquidity check falls short at 1.41 against a 1.50 bar, despite $12.1 billion in cash and short-term investments against $2.5 billion in debt, and the separate $12.2 billion held for guests is not Airbnb's cash.
  • Investment timing is expected to lower adjusted EBITDA margin slightly in the quarter to September 2026 compared with the quarter to September 2025, putting attention on the cost of expansion.

What to watch next

  • For the quarter to September 2026, Airbnb expects revenue of $4.69 billion to $4.77 billion, growth of 15% to 17%, including an approximate three percentage point currency tailwind after hedging.
  • Its outlook calls for Gross Booking Value growth in the mid teens, supported by low double-digit growth in Nights and Seats Booked and a moderate increase in Average Daily Rate.
  • For full-year 2026, Airbnb expects revenue growth of at least mid teens and an adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 35.5%, making booking growth and investment spending the central measures of execution.
  • The planned completion of the single service fee migration in 2026, the implied take rate, and cash collection timing will show how pricing and payment changes affect revenue and cash flow.

Sources

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