TenQ

The Firefly Aerospace story

Firefly Aerospace builds rockets, lunar landers, orbital vehicles, and defense software, with the central question whether its growing mission contracts can become a self-funding business.

Firefly Aerospace stock reportTenQ Score 3/36 · every chart and check from its filings
  • $16.75share price, last close
  • $2.8Bmarket value
  • 3/36TenQ Score checks passed

The story in brief

  • Revenue accelerates. Revenue reached $117.7 million in the quarter to June 2026, up 659% from a year earlier and 45.5% from the prior quarter.
  • Defense software broadens Firefly. The October 2025 acquisition of SciTec added missile warning, defense software, and satellite information processing to Firefly’s launch and spacecraft businesses.
  • Growth still consumes cash. Over the last twelve months, revenue grew 179.2% to $287 million, but free cash flow was -$326 million.

What drives the business

  • Firefly combines Launch and Spacecraft Solutions for government, national security, and commercial customers, with SciTec extending its hardware into defense software through contracts including a $259 million U.S. Space Force award announced in 2025.
  • Alpha had more than 30 planned launches under contract as of December 31, 2025, and the August 2026 release announced an extension of Lockheed Martin’s agreement for up to 25 launches through 2031.
  • Firefly is developing the larger, reusable Eclipse rocket with Northrop Grumman, using technologies shared with Alpha to expand beyond its smaller launch vehicle.
  • Blue Ghost Mission 1 carried 10 NASA payloads under a $102.1 million contract, and the quarter to June 2026 brought a $144 million NASA Commercial Lunar Payload Services award for Firefly’s sixth contracted lunar mission and a $75 million Jet Propulsion Laboratory subcontract for MoonFall using Elytra.
  • The Space-ng acquisition added vision navigation and autonomous guidance capabilities for Blue Ghost and Elytra, complementing SciTec’s software and Firefly’s mission hardware.

What the price assumes

At $21.83 per share and a $3.7 billion market value, the reverse DCF cannot measure an implied growth rate because free cash flow and operating earnings are both negative, leaving the valuation dependent on future profits.

The 12.7x price to sales ratio stands against TenQ’s sales valuation check of under 2.5x, despite revenue growth of 179.2% over the last twelve months.

Firefly passes 0 of 6 Value checks, with its -8.9% free cash flow yield also below TenQ’s above 3% threshold.

What could change the story

  • Revenue growth has not established profitability: the operating margin was -118.0%, while the 22.9% gross margin fell below TenQ’s 28.2% sector benchmark over the last twelve months.
  • Cash and short-term investments of $635 million compared with total debt of $27 million support liquidity, but TenQ’s self-funding check fails with 1.95 years of cash at the measured burn rate.
  • The public offering generated $181.6 million in net proceeds to support growth and contract execution, while new shares and $46 million of stock-based pay over the last twelve months create dilution exposure.
  • Mission reliability remains consequential: an Alpha mishap in April 2025 required an FAA investigation before clearance to resume launches in August 2025, illustrating how failures can interrupt contract execution.
  • Government funding changes, acquisition integration, and delays in completing Eclipse or increasing Alpha’s launch rate could prevent awarded work from becoming revenue as planned.

What to watch next

  • Firefly expects full-year 2026 revenue between $420 million and $450 million, making recognized revenue from launch, spacecraft, and software contracts the next test of execution.
  • Subsequent releases can show whether higher revenue narrows operating losses and reduces negative free cash flow rather than requiring further equity funding.
  • Alpha launch frequency, Eclipse development milestones, and Blue Ghost and Elytra mission progress are concrete measures of whether expanded production capacity is translating into customer deliveries.

Sources

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