Builds small rockets and lunar landers for NASA, the military and commercial customers.
$16.75close as of 2026-10-16
-40.3% over 1Y · 57.1 points behind the S&P 500
FLYS&P 500 (SPY), rebased to FLY's first close
“Can Firefly turn its expanding NASA and defense contracts into revenue while reducing cash consumption?”
Editorial note · updated 2026-10-08
The TenQ Radar
Firefly Aerospace in 36 checks
Firefly Aerospace on the TenQ Radar: value, growth, quality, health, shareholder returns and trend. The fuller the shape, the stronger the company. Behind each axis are six pass-or-fail checks from its filings, spelled out in the chapters below. Point at an axis to see them.
The business itself is the question here: 3 of 36 checks passed.
The Firefly Aerospace story
What drives Firefly Aerospace, what its price assumes and what could change the story, written from its own filings.
Revenue accelerates. Revenue reached $117.7 million in the quarter to June 2026, up 659% from a year earlier and 45.5% from the prior quarter.
Defense software broadens Firefly. The October 2025 acquisition of SciTec added missile warning, defense software, and satellite information processing to Firefly’s launch and spacecraft businesses.
Growth still consumes cash. Over the last twelve months, revenue grew 179.2% to $287 million, but free cash flow was -$326 million.
Q2 '26 · quarter to 30 June 2026 · reported 11 August 2026 · Earnings release ↗
Revenue$118M+657%vs 2025+46%vs Q1
Earnings-$92M-$29Mvs 2025+$4Mvs Q1
What the release says
Highlights
Firefly Aerospace reported record quarterly revenue of $117.7 million, up 659% year-over-year and 45.5% from the prior quarter, driven by multiple new contract wins and program execution.
The company was awarded a $144 million NASA CLPS contract for its sixth lunar mission and a $75 million NASA JPL subcontract for the MoonFall mission, expanding its lunar and Mars mission manifest.
Firefly acquired Space-ng, enhancing its AI-powered vision navigation and autonomous guidance capabilities for its Blue Ghost landers and Elytra orbital vehicles.
The company completed a public offering of common stock, generating net proceeds of $181.6 million to support business growth and execution of new contracts.
What management expects
Firefly expects 2026 full-year revenue to be between $420 million and $450 million.
Key risks
Delays or failures in launches, or failure of launch vehicles and spacecraft to operate as intended, could result in regulatory holds or suspensions and materially affect business and financial results.
A substantial portion of revenue and backlog is concentrated among a few major customers, so a loss or default by one or more of these customers, or changes in government funding, could materially reduce revenues and backlog.
Disruptions in U.S. government operations, changes in budgetary priorities, or regulatory delays could have a material adverse effect on revenues, earnings, and cash flows, especially given the company's reliance on government contracts.
The company may not be able to manufacture launch vehicles, landers, or orbital vehicles at the quantity and quality customers demand, which could impact its ability to grow and meet contractual obligations.
AI summary of the company's filings, every number checked against them · 8 October 2026 · Sources: earnings release, 10-K, 10-Q
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I
Value
●●●●●●0/6
Expensive against its own history and its sector (judged on sales, as it is not yet profitable): the price asks a lot of the business.
-no history
9.8xno history
-11.6%cash earned per $ of price
-whole-business multiple
What does “Value” actually mean?
Value asks what you pay for each dollar of earnings, sales or cash the business produces. A high multiple isn't automatically bad - fast growers earn theirs - but a price far above the company's own history means the market expects a lot to go right. We compare each multiple to the company's own past and to its sector, never to a universal rule.
not profitable: no free cash flow or earnings for the price to rest on
II
Growth
●●●●●●1/6
Growth is weak or inconsistent. The trend, not the story, is the problem.
+179.2%vs the year before
-compound annual
-net income growth
-compound annual
Revenue history
Is FLY's revenue growing?
◌ 2026 = trailing twelve months to the latest filed quarter, not a full fiscal year
Period
Revenue ($)
Q2 2024
21.1M
Q3 2024
22.4M
Q1 2025
55.9M
Q2 2025
15.5M
Q3 2025
30.8M
Q4 2025
57.7M
Q1 2026
80.9M
Q2 2026
117.7M
2023
55.2M
2024
60.8M
2025
159.9M
→Revenue reached $160M in 2025, compounding +70% a year since 2023 and the pace is picking up. The trailing twelve months are already running at $287M, ahead of the last full year.
What this measures
The money customers paid, before any costs are taken out. Each bar is one quarter or, on the annual view, a full financial year; the last annual bar may be the trailing twelve months, which the footnote marks.
What good looks like. Growth that repeats, rather than one strong year carrying the chart, and a trailing twelve months keeping pace with the last full year.
If it rises or falls. Revenue is the hardest line to flatter, so a rise is the most trustworthy kind of growth. A fall puts pressure on every margin below it, because costs rarely come down as quickly as sales do.
Revenue by productInsight
Where does Firefly Aerospace's revenue come from?
dashed quarter = Q4 derived from the annual filing minus Q1, Q2 and Q3 (the SEC never receives a Q4 report)
→Firefly Aerospace makes 92% of its revenue from Spacecraft Solutions Revenue ($108M), and that share has risen from 41% in 2024Q3: the mix is shifting towards Spacecraft Solutions Revenue.
Source: SEC filings - segment disclosures (XBRL notes) · as at 2026-06-30
Profit history
Is FLY's net profit growing?
◌ 2026 = trailing twelve months to the latest filed quarter, not a full fiscal year
Period
Net income ($)
Q1 2024
-52.8M
Q2 2024
-53.5M
Q3 2024
-40.8M
Q4 2024
-84.1M
Q1 2025
-60.1M
Q2 2025
-63.8M
Q3 2025
-133.4M
Q4 2025
-41.1M
Q1 2026
-96.7M
Q2 2026
-92.3M
2023
-135.5M
2024
-231.1M
2025
-298.3M
→The company lost $298M in 2025, more than the $231M it lost the year before. The losses are widening - check the Health chapter for how long the cash lasts.
What this measures
What is left after every cost, including tax and interest. The bottom line of the income statement.
What good looks like. Profit growing at least as fast as revenue, which means the business is keeping more of each sale as it gets bigger.
If it rises or falls. Profit can move for reasons revenue cannot explain - a one-off charge, a tax change, a write-down - so a single sharp year is worth checking against the margin chart before reading it as a trend.
What does “Growth” actually mean?
Growth here is what the company has actually reported to the SEC - not a forecast. We look at the last year, the three-year pace, whether growth is speeding up or slowing down, and whether it's been consistent rather than one lucky year. Hatched bars are fourth quarters we derived from annual filings (companies file a full-year 10-K rather than a Q4 report).
Profitability is thin or negative. The growth isn't turning into money yet.
22.9%kept after direct costs
-118.0%kept after running costs
-profit on shareholders' money
-25.2%against a 10% cost of capital
-operating cash ÷ net income
Margins
What profit margin does FLY keep on each sale?
Year
Gross
Operating
Net
2,023
0.4816
-2.3875
-2.4524
2,024
-0.1869
-3.4454
-3.802
2,025
0.1918
-1.6308
-1.8663
◌ 2026 = trailing twelve months to the latest filed quarter (2026-06-30), not a full fiscal year · each quarterly point is the trailing twelve months to that quarter end, so the last one is the current figure
→Operating margin widened 76 points to -163% since 2023. The bottom line is still negative: costs below the operating line eat what is left.
What this measures
What survives at three points on the way down the income statement: after the direct cost of the product, after the cost of running the company, and after everything.
What good looks like. Margins that hold or widen as the business grows. The level itself varies enormously by industry, so the shape over time tells you more than the number.
If it rises or falls. A widening margin means pricing power or costs under control. A compressing one means the opposite, and it compounds: on large revenue, two points of margin is a great deal of profit.
Earnings quality
Does FLY's operating cash flow keep up with its profit?
Year
Cash from operations
Net income
2,023
-93.4M
-135.5M
2,024
-157.7M
-231.1M
2,025
-204.9M
-298.3M
◌ 2026 = trailing twelve months to the latest filed quarter (2026-06-30), not a full fiscal year · each quarterly point is the trailing twelve months to that quarter end, so the last one is the current figure
→The company generated -$205M of operating cash in 2025. With no profit to compare against, cash generation is the number that matters here.
What this measures
Reported profit against the cash the business actually collected from operating. Profit is an accounting judgement; cash is not.
What good looks like. Cash at or above profit, year after year. Depreciation and other non-cash charges usually push cash above profit, so roughly 100% or more is healthy.
If it rises or falls. Cash falling behind profit for more than a year is the classic early warning: the sales are booked but the money has not arrived, and it shows up in receivables and inventory. For a lender the comparison behaves differently, because a growing loan book consumes cash.
Income waterfall
Where does FLY's revenue go, from sales to net profit?
Step
Amount ($)
Revenue, last 12m
287.0M
Gross profit
65.8M
Operating income
-338.7M
Net income
-363.5M
◌ 2026 = trailing twelve months to the latest filed quarter (2026-06-30), not a full fiscal year
→Of $287M over the twelve months to 2026-06-30 sales, nothing reaches the bottom line - the journey from revenue to profit ends $363M underwater.
What this measures
One year of revenue, with each major cost taken out in the order the income statement takes it, ending at net profit.
What good looks like. No single step swallowing a surprising share, and a bottom line that survives all of them.
If it rises or falls. The largest step is where the business really spends its money, and it is the one to watch year to year: a step that grows faster than revenue is what margin compression looks like before it reaches the margin chart.
Customer concentrationInsight
How much of Firefly Aerospace's revenue comes from its largest customers?
→Firefly Aerospace's five largest customers made up 82% of its revenue in FY2025. The largest alone was 59%, up from 33% in FY2023.
Source: SEC filings: customer concentration notes (XBRL) · as at 2026-06-30
Return on capital employed
Is FLY's return on capital above what its capital costs?
Period
Return on capital employed
2024
-0.9188
2025
-0.1618
◌ 2026 = trailing twelve months to the latest filed quarter (2026-06-30), not a full fiscal year · each quarterly point is the trailing twelve months to that quarter end, so the last one is the current figure
→FLY's return on capital is negative at -16.2% in 2025. The capital in the business is not yet earning anything back.
What this measures
The same return as the card above, but every filed year, against a 10% line that stands in for what capital costs.
What good looks like. Years above the line, and a trend that is flat or rising rather than drifting down towards it.
If it rises or falls. A business earning above its cost of capital creates value by growing; one earning below it destroys value by growing. The 10% line is a convention, not a law, so read the distance from it rather than the crossing.
What does “Quality” actually mean?
Quality asks whether the growth makes real money. Margins show how much of each sale survives costs; return on equity shows what shareholders earn on their capital; and the profit-to-cash comparison catches companies whose accounting profits never turn into actual cash.
TTM operating cash flow -$264M on a net loss of $363M
IV
Financial health
●●●●●●2/6
The balance sheet carries real risk. Read the checks before anything else.
0.02xborrowed vs owned
2.7xnear-term bills coverage
-41xearnings ÷ interest bill
$635Mcash plus short-term investments
Debt & cash
How much debt does FLY carry, and do its profits cover the interest?
Year
Total debt
Cash & investments
2,022
-
17.8M
2,023
-
81.9M
2,024
119.3M
123.4M
2,025
288.5M
893.0M
2,026
27.0M
635.3M
◌ each quarterly point is the balance sheet at that quarter end
→The company holds $635M in cash against $27M of debt - a net-cash balance sheet, which means a bad year is an inconvenience rather than a threat.
What this measures
Total borrowings against cash on hand, with debt as a multiple of shareholders' equity, and how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What good looks like. Interest covered comfortably - roughly eight times or more - and debt that is not a large multiple of equity.
If it rises or falls. Debt is only a problem when it has to be repaid or refinanced in a bad year, so cover matters more than the amount. Rising debt with rising cover is a business borrowing to grow; rising debt with falling cover is the combination that ends badly.
Interest cover
How many times over can FLY's operating profit pay its interest bill?
Period
Interest cover (x)
2023
-14.4126
2024
-8.2981
2025
-16.3749
◌ 2026 = trailing twelve months to the latest filed quarter (2026-06-30), not a full fiscal year · each quarterly point is the trailing twelve months to that quarter end, so the last one is the current figure
→Operating profit does not cover the interest bill (-41.2x).
What this measures
Operating profit divided by interest expense - how many times over the year's earnings could pay the year's interest.
What good looks like. High and steady. Five times is a common floor; comfortably above it means the debt is being carried, not merely serviced.
If it rises or falls. It falls when profit falls or when borrowing costs rise, and a company can look safe on the level while the direction is telling you otherwise.
Cash conversion
How much of FLY's revenue arrives as operating cash?
Period
Operating cash flow / revenue
2023
-1.6916
2024
-2.5933
2025
-1.2819
◌ 2026 = trailing twelve months to the latest filed quarter (2026-06-30), not a full fiscal year · each quarterly point is the trailing twelve months to that quarter end, so the last one is the current figure
→FLY's operations consumed cash rather than produced it over the last twelve months.
What this measures
Operating cash flow as a share of revenue: of every dollar sold, how much reached the bank before capital spending.
What good looks like. A high share, holding up or improving. It is the clearest sign that reported profit is real.
If it rises or falls. It falls when customers take longer to pay or stock builds up, and it can stay high while profit falls - which is usually the more reassuring of the two.
Shareholders' equity
Is FLY's shareholder equity (book value) growing?
Period
Equity ($)
2022
-350.7M
2023
-504.5M
2024
-767.6M
2025
1.19B
2026
1.22B
→The company's own capital grew from -$504M in 2023 to $1.2B. The business is building book value rather than consuming it.
What this measures
What would be left for shareholders if every asset were sold at its book value and every debt repaid. Book value, in other words.
What good looks like. Equity growing as retained profits build up, unless the company is deliberately returning more than it earns.
If it rises or falls. Equity falls for two very different reasons: buybacks, which return money to you, and losses, which do not. The distinction is the whole story, and negative equity means liabilities now exceed assets, which makes debt-to-equity and return on equity meaningless rather than alarming.
What does “Health” actually mean?
Health asks one question: can the business survive a bad year? We check whether near-term bills are covered, whether debt is modest and shrinking, whether earnings comfortably pay the interest, and - for loss-makers - how many years of cash are left at the current burn rate.
FLY returns nothing to shareholders yet. Every dollar stays in the business.
-bought back, TTM, over market value
-at the current rate
-dividends plus buybacks
$46Mlast 12m, dilutes the buybacks
+795.8%since 2023 (split-adjusted)
Dilution against what it bought
Has FLY's revenue per share grown faster than its share count?
Change since 2023. The gap between the lines is what each share gained or lost. Share counts are split-adjusted weighted averages.
Year
Share count, change since 2023
Revenue per share, change since 2023
2,023
0
0
2,024
0.0703
0.0283
2,025
4.7781
-0.4991
◌ 2026 = trailing twelve months to the latest filed quarter (2026-06-30), not a full fiscal year
→FLY issued 478% more shares from 2023 to 2025 and revenue per share still fell 50%. On this measure the new shares have not paid for themselves.
What this measures
The share count and revenue per share over the same years, both indexed to 100 at the start, so the two lines can be compared directly.
What good looks like. The per-share line above the share-count line: whatever the company did with its shares, more business ended up behind each one.
If it rises or falls. Issuing shares is not automatically bad. It is bad when the money raised buys less growth than the dilution cost, which is exactly what the gap between these two lines shows.
Why compare buybacks with stock compensation?
A company can trumpet billions in buybacks while quietly issuing nearly as much stock to employees. What matters to you is the net effect: is the share count actually falling? If not, the 'return' is mostly recycling.
→FLY is in a downtrend: the price is below the cloud where recent trading settled and that cloud is still falling. Both shorter readings point down as well, so nothing here disagrees with the downtrend.
How the trend above is worked out
The trend read is the daily Ichimoku picture, the same indicator drawn on the chart above. Five names, and what each one is: the TENKAN is the midpoint of the last 9 sessions' high and low, the fast line; the KIJUN is the same over 26 sessions, the slow one; the two SENKOU spans are midpoints drawn 26 sessions into the FUTURE, and the band between them is the KUMO cloud - because it is drawn forward, the support for the coming weeks is already fixed and a change of its direction can be seen coming; the CHIKOU is today's close compared with the close 26 sessions back. A trend confirms itself in that order and the checks follow it: price clears the cloud, holds above both lines, the Tenkan crosses above the Kijun, the cloud ahead turns up, and the Chikou stands higher than the price a month ago. Six of six therefore means all of that at once; a price sitting inside the cloud, or below its own lines, cannot get there. The last check is the one Ichimoku cannot answer - whether the S&P 500 did better over 12 months (252 sessions), measured on the SPY ETF with dividends included, on the same adjusted basis as the stock's own price. Our figures are the last close we hold, refreshed every trading night; the chart is live. None of this says anything about the business, and it is not advice.
Are FLY's insiders buying or selling shares with their own money?
Month
Buys ($)
Sells ($)
2025-08
1.2M
0
2025-09
0
0
2025-10
0
0
2025-11
0
0
2025-12
0
0
2026-01
0
0
2026-02
0
0
2026-03
0
0
2026-04
0
169,608
2026-05
0
169,885
2026-06
0
384.0M
2026-07
0
0
2026-08
0
0
2026-09
0
0
2026-10
0
0
→Since August 2025, insiders bought $1M and sold $384M on the open market, a net sale of $383M. A further 48 transactions were grants, option exercises or tax withholding, which say nothing either way.
What this measures
Open-market buys and sells by the company's own officers and directors, from their Form 4 filings. Grants, option exercises and shares withheld for tax are excluded, because they are compensation rather than decisions.
What good looks like. Buying with their own money, which is the one insider action that is hard to explain away.
If it rises or falls. Selling is weak evidence: insiders sell to diversify, to buy houses, and on pre-scheduled plans set months ahead. Buying is stronger evidence, because there is only one reason to do it. The absence of any buying over a long stretch is itself worth noticing.
The record
Who did what, exactly?
Date
Insider
Role
Type
Shares
Price
Value
2026-09-22
Jesung Kim
Chief Executive Officer
exercise
43,278
$2.31
$99,998
2026-09-17
Darren Ma
Chief Financial Officer
exercise
54,286
$0.42
$22,968
2026-09-17
Darren Ma
Chief Financial Officer
exercise
33,233
$0.49
$16,224
2026-09-16
Russell Shea Ferring
Chief Technology Officer
tax
16,700
$20.28
$338,676
2026-09-16
Remington Wu
Chief Accounting Officer
tax
1,827
$20.28
$37,052
2026-09-16
Darren Ma
Chief Financial Officer
tax
18,309
$20.28
$371,307
2026-09-16
Jesung Kim
Chief Executive Officer
tax
86,265
$20.28
$1.75M
2026-08-24
Darren Ma
Chief Financial Officer
tax
256
$23.10
$5,914
2026-06-01
Aeroequity GP, LLC
10% owner
SELL
5,198,872
$48.00
$249.55M
2026-06-01
Aeroequity GP, LLC
10% owner
SELL
2,801,128
$48.00
$134.45M
2026-05-18
David Leigh Wheeler
General Counsel
exercise
3,765
$2.31
$8,699
2026-05-18
David Leigh Wheeler
General Counsel
SELL
3,765
$45.12
$169,885
2026-04-17
David Leigh Wheeler
General Counsel
exercise
3,766
$2.31
$8,702
2026-04-17
David Leigh Wheeler
General Counsel
SELL
3,766
$45.04
$169,608
2025-08-06
Kirk Michael Konert
Director
BUY
3,333
$45.00
$149,985
2025-08-06
Jonathan Donald Lusczakoski
Director
BUY
266
$45.00
$11,970
2025-08-06
Pamela Joyce Braden
Director
BUY
8,888
$45.00
$399,960
2025-08-06
Thomas Hansueli Zurbuchen
Director
BUY
800
$45.00
$36,000
2025-08-06
Aeroequity GP, LLC
10% owner
BUY
11,111
$45.00
$499,995
2025-08-06
Jonathan Donald Lusczakoski
Director
BUY
2,222
$45.00
$99,990
Why do the transaction types matter so much?
Most insider filings are not trades: stock grants, option exercises and tax withholding are how executives get paid, and gifts are estate planning. The signal lives in open-market transactions - a buy means an insider chose to spend their own cash on the stock. Sells are murkier: many are pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plans set months in advance. That's why the chart counts only open-market activity, and the table labels every row.
VIII
Ownership
informational
56.7%on Form 13F, 30 June 2026
2.2%officers, directors, founders
47.8%together
Top holders
Who owns Firefly Aerospace stock?
Fund managers filing Form 13F held 56.7% of the company's shares on 30 June 2026. The largest holder is Ae Industrial Partners, LP, with 20.6%. Insiders hold 2.2%.
#
Holder
Stake
Shares
Value
Change
1
Ae Industrial Partners, LPFund manager
20.63%
34.5M
$578M
-2.0%
2
Astera InstituteHolds over 5% · Form 13G, 30 June 2026
6.77%
11.3M
$190M
-
3
Markusic Thomas EHolds over 5% · Form 13G, 30 June 2026
5.27%
8.8M
$148M
-
4
BlackRock, Inc.Fund manager
3.53%
5.9M
$99M
+189.7%
5
State Street CorpFund manager
2.50%
4.2M
$70M
+751.4%
6
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLCFund manager
2.15%
3.6M
$60M
+48.0%
7
Vanguard Capital Management LLCFund manager
1.83%
3.1M
$51M
+31.6%
8
Van Eck Associates CorpFund manager
1.82%
3.0M
$51M
+43.8%
9
JPMorgan Chase & CoFund manager
1.67%
2.8M
$47M
+341.2%
10
Two Sigma Investments, LPFund manager
1.62%
2.7M
$45M
+14756.4%
11
Tema ETFs LLCFund manager
1.36%
2.3M
$38M
+133440.2%
12
Tidal Investments LLCFund manager
1.29%
2.2M
$36M
New
13
Phoenix Financial Ltd.Fund manager
1.08%
1.8M
$30M
+174.7%
14
Price T Rowe Associates IncFund manager
0.99%
1.7M
$28M
+86.2%
15
UBS Group AGFund manager
0.97%
1.6M
$27M
+52.1%
16
Geode Capital Management, LLCFund manager
0.93%
1.6M
$26M
+137.8%
17
Capital World InvestorsFund manager
0.74%
1.2M
$21M
+2.8%
18
Marc Allen WeiserDirector · Form 4, 25 February 2026
0.72%
1.2M
$20M
-
19
Morgan StanleyFund manager
0.69%
1.2M
$19M
+168.4%
20
Mirae Asset Global Investments Co., Ltd.Fund manager
0.63%
1.1M
$18M
New
The full list of top holders is free with an account
Source: SEC Form 13F filings for the quarter to 30 June 2026, Schedules 13D and 13G, and Form 4. Shares on today's basis, value at the latest price.
Where does this list come from?
Fund managers with more than $100 million in US stocks report their holdings every quarter on Form 13F, up to 45 days after the quarter ends, so the fund figures are as of the last quarter end. A fund family reports as one manager, and funds together can report more than 100%: shares lent to short sellers are bought again by other funds, and both report them. Anyone holding more than 5% of a class files a Schedule 13D or 13G, and officers and directors report what they hold on Form 4 after every trade, so those rows carry their own dates. Short positions are not reported anywhere. A stake is the holder's shares as a share of all the company's shares, with other share classes converted at their market value.