TenQ

The Gemini story

Gemini is a crypto trading and custody platform expanding into broader financial services, with the central question whether credit cards, equities, and prediction markets can reduce its dependence on crypto trading while narrowing losses.

Gemini stock reportTenQ Score 5/36 · every chart and check from its filings
  • $3.57share price, last close
  • $463Mmarket value
  • 5/36TenQ Score checks passed

The story in brief

  • Services offset weaker trading. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue rose 37% to $45.5 million as services revenue increased 149%, despite a 38% decline in exchange revenue.
  • Expansion meets credit losses. Credit card revenue reached $16.2 million in the quarter to June 2026, while a primarily fraud-related credit loss provision totaled $16.1 million.
  • Lower costs, substantial losses. Operating expenses fell 15% sequentially to $122.4 million in the quarter to June 2026, but the net loss remained $107.7 million.

What drives the business

  • Gemini is moving from a core crypto exchange toward an integrated financial platform, while its February 2026 plan to exit the United Kingdom, the European Union, other European jurisdictions, and Australia concentrates resources on the United States.
  • The platform serves retail and institutional users through trading, custody, staking, the GUSD stablecoin, and credit cards, earning transaction fees, service fees, and interest income.
  • Its credit card partnership with WebBank and Mastercard generated revenue growth of 231% to $16.2 million in the quarter to June 2026, while staking revenue grew 50% to $4.0 million.
  • Crypto activity remains important: trading volume fell to $3.8 billion from $11.3 billion a year earlier in the quarter to June 2026, while greater institutional activity lifted OTC revenue to $4.7 million from $0.6 million.
  • Gemini Predictions launched in December 2025 and generated $0.5 million in revenue in the quarter to June 2026, followed by commission-free stock trading for eligible U.S. customers in July 2026 and a clearinghouse in August 2026 that enables Gemini to settle its own prediction contracts.

What the price assumes

At $4.49 per share, the reverse DCF cannot measure an implied growth assumption because free cash flow and operating earnings are negative, leaving the price dependent on future profits.

Over the last twelve months, revenue grew 51.5% to $207 million, but free cash flow was -$307 million and the operating margin was -195.1%.

The 2.8x price to sales ratio exceeds TenQ's under 2.5x bar, and the -52.8% free cash flow yield fails its above 3% check.

What could change the story

  • Cash and short-term investments of $189 million sit against free cash flow of -$307 million over the last twelve months, and Gemini fails TenQ's near-term liquidity and self-funding checks.
  • The $16.1 million credit loss provision in the quarter to June 2026 followed an earlier fraud reserve, making management's belief that losses are concentrated in the identified group of accounts important as managed card receivables reached $219.6 million.
  • Operating expenses remained 24% higher than a year earlier in the quarter to June 2026 despite sequential reductions, and stock-based pay totaled $126 million over the last twelve months.
  • Dependence on bitcoin, ether, and solana prices and transaction activity leaves revenue exposed to weaker crypto markets, while regulated and unregulated competitors can affect customer retention.
  • Changes in digital asset and event-contract regulation could restrict products, while failures to safeguard customer funds or private keys could bring financial losses, regulatory scrutiny, and reputational damage.

What to watch next

  • Gemini gave no numerical guidance with the June 2026 release, leaving service revenue growth, operating expenses, and cash use as concrete measures of progress toward a less crypto-dependent business.
  • Subsequent credit loss provisions and card receivable performance will test management's view that the fraud losses are concentrated, alongside the effectiveness of additional fraud detection and account monitoring.
  • Revenue from prediction markets and adoption of stock trading will show how much the newer products contribute beyond the $0.5 million of prediction markets revenue in the quarter to June 2026.
  • Exchange trading volume and assets on platform will help distinguish broader customer engagement from crypto price effects, after monthly transacting users rose 11% to 580,000 but assets on platform fell to $8.4 billion in the quarter to June 2026.

Sources

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