TenQ · Stock reportUpdated 2026-10-16

Gemini (GEMI)

$463M market cap · TenQ Score 5/36

Runs the Gemini crypto exchange, plus custody and a crypto rewards credit card.

$3.57close as of 2026-10-16
-82.6% over 1Y · 99.4 points behind the S&P 500
$1.87$7.93$14.00$20.07$26.13Oct '25Dec '25Mar '26May '26Aug '26Oct '26

“Can Gemini sustain credit card growth while containing the fraud losses that raised its credit loss provision?”

Editorial note · updated 2026-10-08
The TenQ Radar

Gemini in 36 checks

Gemini on the TenQ Radar: value, growth, quality, health, shareholder returns and trend. The fuller the shape, the stronger the company. Behind each axis are six pass-or-fail checks from its filings, spelled out in the chapters below. Point at an axis to see them.

VALUEGROWTHQUALITYFINANCIAL HEALTHSHAREHOLDERRETURNSTREND

The business itself is the question here: 5 of 36 checks passed.

The Gemini story

What drives Gemini, what its price assumes and what could change the story, written from its own filings.

  • Services offset weaker trading. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue rose 37% to $45.5 million as services revenue increased 149%, despite a 38% decline in exchange revenue.
  • Expansion meets credit losses. Credit card revenue reached $16.2 million in the quarter to June 2026, while a primarily fraud-related credit loss provision totaled $16.1 million.
  • Lower costs, substantial losses. Operating expenses fell 15% sequentially to $122.4 million in the quarter to June 2026, but the net loss remained $107.7 million.

Read the Gemini story

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Latest earnings

Gemini's latest earnings

Q2 '26 · quarter to 30 June 2026 · reported 13 August 2026 · Earnings release ↗

Revenue$45M+37%vs 2025-9.5%vs Q1
Earnings-$108M+$25Mvs 2025+$1Mvs Q1
What the release says

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AI summary of the company's filings, every number checked against them · 8 October 2026 · Sources: earnings release, 10-K, 10-Q

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I

Value

●●●●●●2/6

Expensive against its own history and its sector (judged on sales, as it is not yet profitable): the price asks a lot of the business.

-no history
2.2xno history
-66.4%cash earned per $ of price
-whole-business multiple
What does “Value” actually mean?

Value asks what you pay for each dollar of earnings, sales or cash the business produces. A high multiple isn't automatically bad - fast growers earn theirs - but a price far above the company's own history means the market expects a lot to go right. We compare each multiple to the company's own past and to its sector, never to a universal rule.

How we scored it · 2 of 6 checks passed
–Cheaper than its own history (sales - not yet profitable)under 3 years of history
✓Cheap on sales (under 2.5x)2.24 vs 2.50 (fixed yardstick)
✓Cheap on enterprise value vs sales (under 3x)1.33 vs 3.00 (fixed yardstick)
✕Free cash flow yield above 3%FCF yield -66.4%
✕Cheap on enterprise value (under 14x EBITDA)no EBITDA to value: -$373M over the last twelve months
✕Price isn't outrunning growthno positive three-year earnings growth behind the price
II

Growth

●●●●●●1/6

Growth is weak or inconsistent. The trend, not the story, is the problem.

+51.5%vs the year before
-compound annual
-net income growth
-compound annual
Revenue history

Is GEMI's revenue growing?

◌ 2026 = trailing twelve months to the latest filed quarter, not a full fiscal year

→Revenue reached $180M in 2025, compounding +35% a year since 2023 and the pace is picking up. The trailing twelve months are already running at $207M, ahead of the last full year.

What this measures

The money customers paid, before any costs are taken out. Each bar is one quarter or, on the annual view, a full financial year; the last annual bar may be the trailing twelve months, which the footnote marks.

What good looks like. Growth that repeats, rather than one strong year carrying the chart, and a trailing twelve months keeping pace with the last full year.

If it rises or falls. Revenue is the hardest line to flatter, so a rise is the most trustworthy kind of growth. A fall puts pressure on every margin below it, because costs rarely come down as quickly as sales do.

Revenue by productInsight

Where does Gemini's revenue come from?

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→Transaction and Service Revenue and Interest Income is Gemini's larger product line at $44M, 96% of $45M in 2026Q2, against $2M for Other Revenue and Corporate Interest.

Source: SEC filings - segment disclosures (XBRL notes) · as at 2026-06-30

Profit history

Is GEMI's net profit growing?

◌ 2026 = trailing twelve months to the latest filed quarter, not a full fiscal year

→The company lost $583M in 2025, more than the $159M it lost the year before. The losses are widening - check the Health chapter for how long the cash lasts.

What this measures

What is left after every cost, including tax and interest. The bottom line of the income statement.

What good looks like. Profit growing at least as fast as revenue, which means the business is keeping more of each sale as it gets bigger.

If it rises or falls. Profit can move for reasons revenue cannot explain - a one-off charge, a tax change, a write-down - so a single sharp year is worth checking against the margin chart before reading it as a trend.

What does “Growth” actually mean?

Growth here is what the company has actually reported to the SEC - not a forecast. We look at the last year, the three-year pace, whether growth is speeding up or slowing down, and whether it's been consistent rather than one lucky year. Hatched bars are fourth quarters we derived from annual filings (companies file a full-year 10-K rather than a Q4 report).

How we scored it · 1 of 6 checks passed
✓Outgrew its sector over the last twelve months51.5% vs 34.4% (sector 70th pct, n=81)
–Sustained growth beats its sector (3 years)under 3 years of history
✕Profits grew over the last twelve monthsloss-making: TTM net income -$517M
✕Profit growth beats its peers (3 years)loss-making: TTM net income -$517M
–Growth is speeding up, not slowingunder 3 years of history
–Grew per share, not just in totalunder 3 years of per-share history
III

Quality

●●●●●●0/6

Profitability is thin or negative. The growth isn't turning into money yet.

-kept after direct costs
-195.1%kept after running costs
-profit on shareholders' money
-83.9%against a 10% cost of capital
-operating cash ÷ net income
Margins

What profit margin does GEMI keep on each sale?

→Operating margin widened 125 points to -192% since 2023. The bottom line is still negative: costs below the operating line eat what is left. GEMI doesn't tag a gross-profit line in its filings, so the chart starts at operating margin.

What this measures

What survives at three points on the way down the income statement: after the direct cost of the product, after the cost of running the company, and after everything.

What good looks like. Margins that hold or widen as the business grows. The level itself varies enormously by industry, so the shape over time tells you more than the number.

If it rises or falls. A widening margin means pricing power or costs under control. A compressing one means the opposite, and it compounds: on large revenue, two points of margin is a great deal of profit.

Earnings quality

Does GEMI's operating cash flow keep up with its profit?

→The company generated -$218M of operating cash in 2025. With no profit to compare against, cash generation is the number that matters here.

What this measures

Reported profit against the cash the business actually collected from operating. Profit is an accounting judgement; cash is not.

What good looks like. Cash at or above profit, year after year. Depreciation and other non-cash charges usually push cash above profit, so roughly 100% or more is healthy.

If it rises or falls. Cash falling behind profit for more than a year is the classic early warning: the sales are booked but the money has not arrived, and it shows up in receivables and inventory. For a lender the comparison behaves differently, because a growing loan book consumes cash.

Return on capital employed

Is GEMI's return on capital above what its capital costs?

→GEMI's return on capital is negative at -61.6% in 2025. The capital in the business is not yet earning anything back.

What this measures

The same return as the card above, but every filed year, against a 10% line that stands in for what capital costs.

What good looks like. Years above the line, and a trend that is flat or rising rather than drifting down towards it.

If it rises or falls. A business earning above its cost of capital creates value by growing; one earning below it destroys value by growing. The 10% line is a convention, not a law, so read the distance from it rather than the crossing.

What does “Quality” actually mean?

Quality asks whether the growth makes real money. Margins show how much of each sale survives costs; return on equity shows what shareholders earn on their capital; and the profit-to-cash comparison catches companies whose accounting profits never turn into actual cash.

How we scored it · 0 of 6 checks passed
✕Better net margins than its sector-250.1% vs 14.2% (sector 70th pct, n=80)
✕Runs leaner than its sector (operating margin)-195.1% vs 6.4% (sector 70th pct, n=49)
✕Actually profitableTTM net income -$517M
–Earns well on shareholders' moneyequity or income unavailable
✕Earns a real return on the capital it employs-83.9% vs 10.0%
✕Generates cash despite the lossTTM operating cash flow -$305M on a net loss of $517M
IV

Financial health

●●●●●●2/6

The balance sheet carries real risk. Read the checks before anything else.

0.00xborrowed vs owned
1.3xnear-term bills coverage
-9xearnings ÷ interest bill
$189Mcash plus short-term investments
Debt & cash

How much debt does GEMI carry, and do its profits cover the interest?

→The company holds $189M in cash against $0.00 of debt - a net-cash balance sheet, which means a bad year is an inconvenience rather than a threat.

What this measures

Total borrowings against cash on hand, with debt as a multiple of shareholders' equity, and how many times profit covers the interest bill.

What good looks like. Interest covered comfortably - roughly eight times or more - and debt that is not a large multiple of equity.

If it rises or falls. Debt is only a problem when it has to be repaid or refinanced in a bad year, so cover matters more than the amount. Rising debt with rising cover is a business borrowing to grow; rising debt with falling cover is the combination that ends badly.

Cash conversion

How much of GEMI's revenue arrives as operating cash?

→GEMI's operations consumed cash rather than produced it over the last twelve months.

What this measures

Operating cash flow as a share of revenue: of every dollar sold, how much reached the bank before capital spending.

What good looks like. A high share, holding up or improving. It is the clearest sign that reported profit is real.

If it rises or falls. It falls when customers take longer to pay or stock builds up, and it can stay high while profit falls - which is usually the more reassuring of the two.

Shareholders' equity

Is GEMI's shareholder equity (book value) growing?

→The company's own capital grew from -$644M in 2023 to $468M. The business is building book value rather than consuming it.

What this measures

What would be left for shareholders if every asset were sold at its book value and every debt repaid. Book value, in other words.

What good looks like. Equity growing as retained profits build up, unless the company is deliberately returning more than it earns.

If it rises or falls. Equity falls for two very different reasons: buybacks, which return money to you, and losses, which do not. The distinction is the whole story, and negative equity means liabilities now exceed assets, which makes debt-to-equity and return on equity meaningless rather than alarming.

What does “Health” actually mean?

Health asks one question: can the business survive a bad year? We check whether near-term bills are covered, whether debt is modest and shrinking, whether earnings comfortably pay the interest, and - for loss-makers - how many years of cash are left at the current burn rate.

How we scored it · 2 of 6 checks passed
✕Comfortable near-term liquidity1.30 vs 1.50
✓Debt isn't dominating0.00 vs 1.00
–Debt trending the right wayunder 5 years of balance-sheet history
✓Earnings cover the interestno debt
✕Converts sales to cash better than its sector-147.8% vs 27.5% (sector 70th pct, n=81)
✕Self-funding0.61 years of cash at current burn
V

Shareholder returns

●●●●●●0/6

GEMI returns nothing to shareholders yet. Every dollar stays in the business.

-bought back, TTM, over market value
-at the current rate
-dividends plus buybacks
$126Mlast 12m, dilutes the buybacks
+1281.9%since 2023 (split-adjusted)
Dilution against what it bought

Has GEMI's revenue per share grown faster than its share count?

Change since 2023. The gap between the lines is what each share gained or lost. Share counts are split-adjusted weighted averages.

→GEMI issued 678% more shares from 2023 to 2025 and revenue per share still fell 76%. On this measure the new shares have not paid for themselves.

What this measures

The share count and revenue per share over the same years, both indexed to 100 at the start, so the two lines can be compared directly.

What good looks like. The per-share line above the share-count line: whatever the company did with its shares, more business ended up behind each one.

If it rises or falls. Issuing shares is not automatically bad. It is bad when the money raised buys less growth than the dilution cost, which is exactly what the gap between these two lines shows.

Why compare buybacks with stock compensation?

A company can trumpet billions in buybacks while quietly issuing nearly as much stock to employees. What matters to you is the net effect: is the share count actually falling? If not, the 'return' is mostly recycling.

How we scored it · 0 of 6 checks passed
–Share count isn't climbingunder 3 years of share counts
✕Buybacks outpace the stock issued to staffno buybacks against $126M of stock compensation
✕Hands cash back to ownersno dividends and no buybacks in the last twelve months
✕Meaningful yield to owners (dividends and buybacks)0.00 returned, 0.0% of market value
✕Buybacks are sustained, not one-offpays no dividend and reports no buybacks
✕Buybacks growingpays no dividend and reports no buybacks
VI

Trend

●●●●●●0/6

Every reading points down: a falling trend, not a dip inside a rising one.

-36.3%the long-term trend line
-20.7%S&P 500 (SPY): +3.1%
-84.0%S&P 500 (SPY): +16.0%
-82.7%drawdown from peak
Trend

Which way is GEMI's share price trending?

Price chart loads as you scroll…

Chart by TradingView

→GEMI is in a downtrend: the price is below the cloud where recent trading settled and that cloud is still falling. Both shorter readings point down as well, so nothing here disagrees with the downtrend.

How the trend above is worked out

The trend read is the daily Ichimoku picture, the same indicator drawn on the chart above. Five names, and what each one is: the TENKAN is the midpoint of the last 9 sessions' high and low, the fast line; the KIJUN is the same over 26 sessions, the slow one; the two SENKOU spans are midpoints drawn 26 sessions into the FUTURE, and the band between them is the KUMO cloud - because it is drawn forward, the support for the coming weeks is already fixed and a change of its direction can be seen coming; the CHIKOU is today's close compared with the close 26 sessions back. A trend confirms itself in that order and the checks follow it: price clears the cloud, holds above both lines, the Tenkan crosses above the Kijun, the cloud ahead turns up, and the Chikou stands higher than the price a month ago. Six of six therefore means all of that at once; a price sitting inside the cloud, or below its own lines, cannot get there. The last check is the one Ichimoku cannot answer - whether the S&P 500 did better over 12 months (252 sessions), measured on the SPY ETF with dividends included, on the same adjusted basis as the stock's own price. Our figures are the last close we hold, refreshed every trading night; the chart is live. None of this says anything about the business, and it is not advice.

How we scored it · 0 of 6 checks passed
✕Price above the Kumo cloud$3.57, below the cloud bottom of $4.19
✕Price above the Tenkan and the Kijun$3.57 against the Tenkan (9 sessions) at $4.20 and the Kijun (26) at $4.87
✕Tenkan above the KijunTenkan $4.20 below the Kijun $4.87, 8 sessions since they crossed
✕The Senkou cloud ahead is risingthe Senkou spans already drawn for the next 26 sessions are falling and it turns down partway through
✕Chikou above the price 26 sessions back$3.57 against $4.39 26 sessions ago
✕Beating the S&P 500 over 12 months-84.0% vs 16.0%
VII

Insider activity

informational
$0.00their own money
$13Moften pre-scheduled
7of the last filings
39grants · exercises · tax
Open-market flow

Are GEMI's insiders buying or selling shares with their own money?

→Since September 2025, insiders sold $13M on the open market and bought nothing. Many sales are pre-scheduled diversification rather than a view on the price. A further 39 transactions were grants, option exercises or tax withholding, which say nothing either way.

What this measures

Open-market buys and sells by the company's own officers and directors, from their Form 4 filings. Grants, option exercises and shares withheld for tax are excluded, because they are compensation rather than decisions.

What good looks like. Buying with their own money, which is the one insider action that is hard to explain away.

If it rises or falls. Selling is weak evidence: insiders sell to diversify, to buy houses, and on pre-scheduled plans set months ahead. Buying is stronger evidence, because there is only one reason to do it. The absence of any buying over a long stretch is itself worth noticing.

The record

Who did what, exactly?

DateInsiderRoleTypeSharesPriceValue
2026-08-20Danijela StojanovicInterim CFOSELL7,940$4.05$32,157
2026-07-02Danijela StojanovicInterim CFOSELL8,438$4.44$37,465
2026-05-20Danijela StojanovicInterim CFOSELL11,700$5.05$59,085
2026-05-14Winklevoss Capital Fund, LLCDirectoraward7,142,857$14.00$100M
2026-03-11Sachin Chand JaitlyDirectorSELL35,713$8.81$314,696
2026-03-11Sachin Chand JaitlyDirectorSELL3,995$9.92$39,610
2026-01-24Marshall Edmund BeardChief Operating Officertax14,293$9.72$138,928
2026-01-24Tyler Roberts MeadeChief Legal Officertax10,361$9.72$100,709
2025-12-24Marshall Edmund BeardChief Operating Officertax19,266$11.37$219,054
2025-12-24Tyler Roberts MeadeChief Legal Officertax13,550$11.37$154,064
Why do the transaction types matter so much?

Most insider filings are not trades: stock grants, option exercises and tax withholding are how executives get paid, and gifts are estate planning. The signal lives in open-market transactions - a buy means an insider chose to spend their own cash on the stock. Sells are murkier: many are pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plans set months in advance. That's why the chart counts only open-market activity, and the table labels every row.

VIII

Ownership

informational
14.4%on Form 13F, 30 June 2026
66.2%officers, directors, founders
75.1%together
1of the 18 TenQ follows
Top holders

Who owns Gemini stock?

Fund managers filing Form 13F held 14.4% of the company's shares on 30 June 2026. The largest holder is Tyler Howard Winklevoss and Cameron Howard Winklevoss, with 57.9%. Insiders hold 66.2%.

#HolderStakeSharesValueChange
1Tyler Howard Winklevoss and Cameron Howard WinklevossChief Executive Officer · Form 4, 11 September 202557.94%75.1M$268M-
2Winklevoss Capital Fund, LLCDirector · Form 4, 14 May 20265.51%7.1M$25M-
3ParaFi Capital LPFund manager2.64%3.4M$12M+430.7%

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Source: SEC Form 13F filings for the quarter to 30 June 2026, Schedules 13D and 13G, and Form 4. Shares on today's basis, value at the latest price.

Super investors

Which super investors own Gemini stock?

Chase Coleman's Tiger Global Management holds Gemini, <0.1% of its portfolio, as of 30 June 2026. It is the only one of the 18 super investors TenQ follows that holds it.

InvestorOf portfolioValueChange
Chase ColemanTiger Global Management<0.1%$298,200Unchanged

Source: each firm's Form 13F for the quarter to 30 June 2026, and its Form 4 and Schedules 13D and 13G since. A weight is the holding's share of the firm's 13F portfolio. All super investors

Where does this list come from?

Fund managers with more than $100 million in US stocks report their holdings every quarter on Form 13F, up to 45 days after the quarter ends, so the fund figures are as of the last quarter end. A fund family reports as one manager, and funds together can report more than 100%: shares lent to short sellers are bought again by other funds, and both report them. Anyone holding more than 5% of a class files a Schedule 13D or 13G, and officers and directors report what they hold on Form 4 after every trade, so those rows carry their own dates. Short positions are not reported anywhere. A stake is the holder's shares as a share of all the company's shares, with other share classes converted at their market value.

§

Recent filings

A short weekly note on what changed in the numbers, coming soon.One email a week: the charts that mattered, nothing else.
Where these numbers come from. Financial statements: US SEC EDGAR (XBRL company facts, as filed - including restatements; hatched chart bars are fourth quarters derived from annual filings), current to 2026-06-30. Prices: delayed end-of-day, as of 2026-10-16. Scores are counts of the transparent pass/fail checks shown in each chapter; every sentence on this page is computed from the data shown, except the labelled editorial note. Missing data is shown as missing, never estimated. Nothing here is investment advice. Terms · Methodology