TenQ

The Centrus Energy story

Centrus Energy supplies nuclear fuel and is building domestic uranium enrichment capacity, with the central question whether its Piketon expansion can turn contingent LEU and HALEU orders into commercial production.

Centrus Energy stock reportTenQ Score 5/36 · every chart and check from its filings
  • $114.94share price, last close
  • $2.4Bmarket value
  • 5/36TenQ Score checks passed

The story in brief

  • Orders depend on construction. At June 2026, Centrus had $3.0 billion in contingent LEU and HALEU commitments, including $2.4 billion under definitive agreements, generally tied to operational milestones.
  • Government support changes form. The $900 million DOE enrichment award supports commercial expansion, while DOE has indicated it does not intend to exercise further options under the separate HALEU Operation Contract.
  • Expansion consumes cash. Free cash flow was -$164 million over the last twelve months, and Centrus expects capital deployment of $350 million to $500 million for the full year 2026.

What drives the business

  • Centrus supplies nuclear fuel components to utilities through its LEU segment, using global suppliers including its largest supply agreement, the TENEX Supply Contract, whose market price reset in 2019 lowered costs and supported margins.
  • Its strategic shift is toward domestic commercial enrichment of low-enriched uranium, or LEU, and high-assay, low-enriched uranium, or HALEU, using centrifuges manufactured in Oak Ridge for its Piketon plant, with the first new capacity expected by the company in 2029.
  • Technical Solutions operates HALEU enrichment for the U.S. Department of Energy and provides manufacturing and technical services, while the $900 million DOE award signed in July 2026 supports the move from demonstration to commercial production.
  • Definitive supply contracts announced with X-energy in August 2026 and Radiant and Antares Nuclear in September 2026 include customer prepayments to support capacity expansion, adding commercial funding alongside government support.
  • In the quarter to June 2026, LEU revenue increased by 22% to $153.4 million, including $53.4 million of uranium revenue despite a 23% decline in enrichment volumes, while Technical Solutions revenue decreased by 21% to $22.7 million, primarily because of lower HALEU Operation Contract revenue.

What the price assumes

The reverse DCF cannot measure an implied cash flow growth rate because free cash flow is negative, leaving the price dependent on future profits rather than an established positive cash flow base.

At $145.70, Centrus trades at 59.9x earnings and 6.3x revenue, against revenue growth of 8.5% over the last twelve months and an annual growth pace of 15.2% over the last three years.

Centrus passes 0 of 6 TenQ Value checks, with a free cash flow yield of -5.5% against the check's requirement of above 3%.

What could change the story

  • Approximately $0.8 billion of Technical Solutions backlog at June 2026 relates to the HALEU Operation Contract, but the proposed DOE budget for fiscal year 2027 excludes further cascade operating funding and DOE has communicated that it does not intend to exercise further options.
  • The $3.0 billion contingent enrichment backlog is not assured revenue because commitments generally depend on operational milestones, while the scale and timing of expansion depend on continued public and private funding.
  • Restrictions affecting Russian LEU and reliance on outside suppliers could disrupt deliveries, and the full year 2026 guidance assumes no significant change in those restrictions.
  • Cash and short-term investments of $1.9 billion provide liquidity alongside $1.2 billion of debt, but interest coverage of 0.52 fails TenQ's 5.00 check and negative free cash flow limits funding from operations.
  • The proposed stock and warrant offering announced in September 2026 could add dilution after share count increased 32.9% over three years, while additional debt could impose operating restrictions and claims senior to common shareholders.

What to watch next

  • The next releases will show progress against full year 2026 revenue guidance of $450 million to $500 million and capital deployment guidance of $350 million to $500 million, alongside cash use and receipts from customer prepayments.
  • Operational milestones for the full year 2026 include completing the first Oak Ridge centrifuge, releasing a Certified for Construction package, finalizing critical partner contracts, and hiring at least 100 net new employees in Oak Ridge and at least 175 in Piketon.
  • Updates on Fluor's engineering work and Geiger Brothers' construction work will help track the Piketon expansion against the company's expected first new capacity in 2029.
  • Technical Solutions revenue, gross profit and backlog revisions will show the effects of the HALEU Operation Contract transition after the segment recorded a gross loss of $1.7 million in the quarter to June 2026.

Sources

Back to the LEU report