The Intuitive Machines story

What drives the business

• Intuitive Machines is moving from individual missions toward building spacecraft, connecting them through communications networks and operating them as continuing services, although spacecraft and other build contracts generate most near-term revenue.
• NASA anchors its lunar business through Commercial Lunar Payload Services, Gateway and Lunar Terrain Vehicle work, while Intuitive Machines is the sole awardee for the Near Space Network’s lunar data relay services.
• The January 2026 Lanteris acquisition cost $800 million before closing adjustments, including $450 million in cash and $350 million in stock, and brought satellite programs serving customers including L3Harris Technologies and Hughes Network Systems.
• National security’s share of revenue expanded from 3% to 30% in the quarter to June 2026 compared with the prior-year quarter, followed by a July 2026 award for 18 spacecraft supporting the Accelerated Missile Defense Tranche 3 Golden Dome constellation.
• A $600+ million contract for three commercial geostationary satellites and its sixth NASA CLPS mission broadened the order book, while the August 2026 Goonhilly Earth Station and COMSAT acquisitions expanded the ground network supporting its communications services.

What the price assumes

At $14.19 per share, the reverse DCF cannot measure the growth assumption because free cash flow and operating earnings are both negative, leaving the price dependent on future profits.

The $2.3 billion market value represents 4.7x revenue of $490 million over the last twelve months, compared with TenQ’s sales multiple check requiring under 2.5x.

Revenue growth of 116.9% over the last twelve months exceeded the 34.1% annual pace over the last three years, but the free cash flow yield of -8.2% falls short of TenQ’s above 3% requirement.

What could change the story

• Backlog is not equivalent to fully funded revenue: the commercial satellite program entered backlog at an estimated value of more than $600.0 million following a $45.0 million authority to proceed.
• The backlog expansion also included $612.8 million acquired with Lanteris, so it does not represent new contract wins alone.
• Cash and short-term investments of $367 million stand against total debt of $336 million and continued cash consumption, while negative equity and inadequate earnings coverage of interest contribute to TenQ’s financial health result of 1 of 6 checks passed.
• Launch delays, spacecraft failures and limited suppliers could postpone contract execution and the start of recurring network services.
• Government funding changes and customer adoption remain important to the service transition, and positive Adjusted EBITDA would not by itself establish profitability or positive free cash flow because the measure excludes expenses including stock compensation and acquisition integration costs.

What to watch next

• Management expects full-year 2026 revenue of $900 million to $1 billion and positive Adjusted EBITDA, making revenue conversion and operating cost trends central measures at the next releases.
• Progress on IM-3 and Altus-1, the first lunar data relay satellite mission, will show how the expanded ground network is moving toward operating services.
• Cash flow, inventory spending and lunar constellation investment will show whether contract execution is reducing cash consumption, while further authorization on the commercial satellite program will clarify the support behind its recorded backlog.

Sources

• Intuitive Machines's earnings release, filed with the SEC
• Its latest 10-Q or 10-K, for the risk factors
• The LUNR stock report, for every figure and check