The NextEra Energy story

What drives the business

• NextEra combines FPL's regulated utility business with Energy Resources' contracted power development business, with FPL serving more than 6 million customer accounts and holding 226 franchise agreements as of December 2025.
• FPL's 2025 rate agreement provides annualized base revenue increases of $945 million beginning January 2026 and $705 million beginning January 2027, with an authorized regulatory return on equity of 10.95%.
• Energy Resources develops generation and battery storage under long-term agreements with utilities and commercial customers, and its renewables and storage backlog reached approximately 35.1 gigawatts in the quarter to June 2026.
• FPL's regulatory capital employed grew approximately 9.3% from the comparable prior period in the quarter to June 2026, while typical residential bills remained approximately 30% below the national average.
• The proposed Dominion Energy combination would shift the combined company's operations to more than 80% regulated, with each Dominion share exchanged for 0.8138 NextEra shares plus a proportional share of $360 million in aggregate cash under the merger agreement.

What the price assumes

At $75.49, the reverse DCF implies operating earnings growth of 18.4% a year for ten years using a 10.2% discount rate, with operating earnings standing in for free cash flow.

That compares with delivered operating earnings growth of 7.8% a year over the last 10 years and the TenQ check's 5.9% bar, which slows the historical record halfway toward 4%.

The assumption describes earnings rather than cash left after investment, because free cash flow is unavailable for the TenQ checks.

Value NEE on your own assumptions

What could change the story

• Dominion merger approvals could be delayed, denied or conditioned in ways that terminate the agreement, while restrictions during the pending transaction could limit business opportunities and successful integration is not assured.
• The Virginia benefits package announced in September 2026 adds commitments including a $100 million workforce development fund and protection for customers from merger costs, making the terms of regulatory approval important to the combination's economics.
• Interest coverage of 2.15 falls below the TenQ check's 5.00 bar, and debt relative to equity has risen to 1.82 from 1.42 five years earlier, leaving financing costs and access to capital important to expansion.
• Return on employed capital of 4.2% falls below the TenQ check's 10.0% bar, despite an operating margin of 32.7%.
• FPL's rate agreement faces a motion for reconsideration, while regulators can disallow cost recovery and changes to clean energy incentives, permitting or construction costs could affect project economics.

What to watch next

• NextEra expects 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $3.92 to $4.02, aims for the high end, and expects compound annual growth of 8%+ through 2032 from its 2025 base of $3.71.
• FPL expects 2026 capital investments between $12 billion and $13 billion and at least one large customer transaction under its tariff by the end of 2026, making spending and signed agreements concrete measures of progress.
• Energy Resources' project completions and new contracts will show whether its approximately 35.1 gigawatts of backlog is converting into operating assets, following 1.1 GW placed into service between the April 2026 results call and the July 2026 release.
• Merger approval decisions and any additional customer commitments will clarify the path toward the company's expected Dominion closing in the second half of 2027, which remains subject to approvals and closing conditions.

Sources

• NextEra Energy's earnings release, filed with the SEC
• Its latest 10-Q or 10-K, for the risk factors
• The NEE stock report, for every figure and check