TenQ

The Oklo story

Oklo is developing small nuclear power plants for data centers and industry, with the central question being whether its Switch and Meta agreements can become funded, licensed Aurora plants delivering power.

Written from Oklo's own filings with the SEC, and rewritten when it publishes a new earnings release. Updated 2026-09-30.

  • $37.11share price, last close
  • $6.9Bmarket value
  • 5/36TenQ Score checks passed

The story in brief

  • Demand precedes revenue. Oklo remains pre-revenue, and its agreement to provide Switch with 12 GW by 2044 is non-binding.
  • Deployment timing has shifted. The latest annual report sets a first powerhouse deployment goal of 2028, compared with commercial power by the end of 2027 in the March 2025 shareholder letter.
  • Cash supports development. Oklo held $1.6 billion in cash and short-term investments at the end of the quarter to June 2026, but plant construction may require additional financing.

What drives the business

  • Oklo plans to design, build, own, and operate Aurora nuclear powerhouses, earning recurring revenue from electricity and heat contracts rather than licensing reactor designs.
  • Its non-binding Master Power Agreement with Switch calls for 12 GW by 2044, while Equinix signed a non-binding letter of intent for 500 MW accompanied by a $25 million prepayment.
  • The January 2026 prepayment agreement with Meta supports a planned 1.2 gigawatt power campus in Pike County, Ohio, with Meta's funding intended to secure nuclear fuel for the first phase.
  • Aurora's offering scales up to 75 MW per unit, and Oklo is developing fuel fabrication and recycling capabilities to support its plants and potentially serve other reactor operators.
  • The acquisition of Atomic Alchemy adds radioisotope production for medical, industrial, and other applications, with a DOE agreement announced in January 2026 supporting a pilot plant.

What the price assumes

At $37.11 per share and a $6.9 billion market value, Oklo's valuation rests on future profits rather than an established earnings record.

The reverse DCF cannot measure an implied growth rate because free cash flow and operating earnings are both negative.

Against TenQ's free cash flow yield bar above 3%, Oklo delivered -4.0%, with free cash flow of -$276 million over the last twelve months.

What could change the story

  • Non-binding customer agreements do not ensure revenue, and licensing, design, supply chain, and construction difficulties could delay Aurora deployment.
  • Access to high-assay low-enriched uranium and recycled fuel remains a constraint, while alternative plutonium fuel would require government authorization and regulatory approvals.
  • The planned Tennessee fuel recycling facility has an investment roadmap of up to $1.68 billion, adding funding demands alongside powerhouse construction despite Oklo's substantial cash balance.
  • Equity distribution agreements entered into in May 2026 and September 2026 create a potential source of financing that could dilute existing shareholders.
  • Atomic Alchemy may not deliver the expected benefits, while Oklo's -8.2% return on equity fails TenQ's profitability standard.

What to watch next

  • The next releases need to explain progress toward the annual report's 2028 deployment goal, following the March 2025 shareholder letter's expectation of commercial power by the end of 2027.
  • Regulatory updates should distinguish approvals already obtained from the remaining permissions needed to construct and operate Aurora and its fuel facilities.
  • Atomic Alchemy's revenue progress will test the March 2025 expectation of potential revenue as soon as 2026.
  • Operating cash use, which was $48 million in the quarter to June 2026, and spending on construction and fuel will show how development demands are changing relative to available cash.

Sources

Back to the OKLO report