The Riot Platforms story

What drives the business

• Riot's transition rests on owning power infrastructure and using its engineering business to develop it, including the January 2026 acquisition of the land beneath Rockdale and its 700 MW grid interconnection.
• The AMD lease has an initial term of ten years, and Riot completed the initial 25 MW on time and on budget in the quarter to June 2026, with a second 25 MW expansion under construction.
• After the quarter to June 2026, Riot signed a 20-year Rockdale lease with an unnamed frontier AI lab for 191 MW of critical IT capacity, expected to generate approximately $9.1 billion in revenue over the initial term.
• Bitcoin mining remained the largest revenue source in the quarter to June 2026 at $113.7 million, while Engineering, which makes power-distribution equipment and supports site development, generated $37.3 million.
• Data Center revenue reached $23.2 million in the quarter to June 2026, but the larger contribution from tenant fit-out services than operating leases shows that construction activity still accounts for most of that segment's revenue.

What the price assumes

At $21.62, the reverse DCF cannot measure an implied growth rate because free cash flow and operating earnings are both negative, leaving the price dependent on future profits rather than an established positive cash flow base.

The $8.1 billion market value represents 12.0x sales, against revenue growth of 24.5% over the last twelve months and an annual pace of 35.7% over the last three years.

TenQ's Value checks passed 0 of 6, with a -9.6% free cash flow yield against its bar above 3%, so the contracted AI revenue has yet to translate into the cash generation those checks require.

What could change the story

• Texas SB 6 and regulatory actions could delay interconnections, raise costs or reduce incentives, while transmission cost-allocation changes and demand-management obligations could weaken Riot's power-cost strategy.
• Voltage and frequency ride-through requirements effective August 1, 2026 could require additional equipment or facility modifications if exemptions are not met.
• Mining economics remained strained in the quarter to June 2026, with cost per bitcoin including miner depreciation of $90,631 exceeding production value per bitcoin of $71,667.
• The over $1.2 billion in liquid assets reported at June 2026 included 11,380 bitcoin, of which 5,821 were collateral, and $548.9 million in cash, of which $77.5 million was restricted, limiting how much of the headline liquidity was freely available.
• Negative free cash flow leaves the expansion dependent on financing and balance-sheet resources, while $141 million in stock-based pay over the last twelve months and a 144.4% share-count increase over the last three years show the dilution accompanying growth.

What to watch next

• The August 2026 release put AMD's next 10 MW delivery in November 2026 and the following 15 MW in May 2027, making construction progress and commissioned capacity the near-term execution measures.
• For the frontier AI lab lease, Riot expects the initial 96 IT MW in December 2027 and full deployment by June 2028, with interconnection and equipment updates important to that schedule.
• Financing updates should clarify progress on the investment-grade credit backstop, alongside the $573 million Morgan Stanley interim facility intended to fund initial development costs.
• Operating lease revenue relative to tenant fit-out revenue, mining cost relative to bitcoin production value, and free cash flow will show whether recurring operations are carrying more of the expansion's funding burden.

Sources

• Riot Platforms's earnings release, filed with the SEC
• Its latest 10-Q or 10-K, for the risk factors
• The RIOT stock report, for every figure and check