The SoFi story

What drives the business

• SoFi combines Lending, Financial Services and its Technology Platform, including Galileo payments technology, with a strategy of attracting members to an integrated app and lowering acquisition costs as they adopt additional products.
• Its national bank charter allows deposits to fund loans, and in the quarter to June 2026 the average deposit rate was 156 basis points below warehouse funding costs, producing approximately $712.6 million in annualized interest expense savings.
• Members grew 35% from a year earlier to 15.8 million in the quarter to June 2026, while products grew 42% to 24.4 million, supporting the company's effort to generate more business from each relationship.
• Loan originations reached $14.8 billion in the quarter to June 2026, including $10.7 billion in personal loans, $2.7 billion in student loans and $1.4 billion in home loans.
• The Loan Platform Business adds fee revenue through lending for outside partners, including $3.1 billion of personal loans originated on their behalf in the quarter to June 2026, when the business contributed $143.3 million to consolidated adjusted net revenue.

What the price assumes

TenQ does not measure the growth implied by SoFi's price through a reverse DCF because a bank's free cash flow does not measure what it earns.

At $15.93, SoFi trades at 31.3x earnings and 4.8x revenue, against revenue growth of 40.8% over the last twelve months and an annual pace of 31.9% over the last three years.

TenQ's earnings yield check requires a yield above the 10-year Treasury, while SoFi's 3.2% falls below that 5.2% bar.

What could change the story

• Greater product adoption has not prevented margin pressure in Financial Services, where contribution margin declined 6 percentage points from a year earlier to 46% in the quarter to June 2026.
• The departure of a large Technology Platform client before the end of December 2025 shows the impact of customer concentration, with platform accounts down 16% from a year earlier to 135 million in June 2026.
• Personal loan credit results need careful interpretation because the reported annualized charge-off rate of 2.62% in the quarter to June 2026 included asset transactions, new originations and delinquent loan disposals, while management estimated approximately 3.7% excluding late-stage delinquent loan disposals and including recoveries.
• Return on equity of 6.6% falls below TenQ's 10.0% capital return bar, leaving a gap between fast revenue growth and returns on shareholders' capital.
• Share count rose 38.9% over the last three years, and SoFi announced $1.5 billion common stock offerings in July 2025 and December 2025, illustrating the dilution accompanying its capital expansion.

What to watch next

• For 2026, management raised adjusted net revenue guidance to approximately $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion, implying growth of 32% to 35%.
• Management left its 2026 expectations at approximately $1.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA and approximately $825 million in adjusted net income, making expense growth and Financial Services contribution margin important measures of how added revenue reaches profit.
• The expectation for at least 30% member growth in 2026 can be assessed alongside products per member and the share of new products opened by existing members, rather than member additions alone.
• Future releases can show whether deposit funding retains its cost advantage as lending expands, whether personal loan losses remain contained and whether Technology Platform revenue continues recovering from the client departure.

Sources

• SoFi's earnings release, filed with the SEC
• Its latest 10-Q or 10-K, for the risk factors
• The SOFI stock report, for every figure and check