TenQ

The The Metals Company story

TMC develops seabed nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese resources, with commercialization depending on U.S. permits, Allseas’s collection system and government funding for onshore processing.

The Metals Company stock reportTenQ Score 2/36 · every chart and check from its filings
  • $2.58share price, last close
  • $1.1Bmarket value
  • 2/36TenQ Score checks passed

The story in brief

  • Permitting is not approval. NOAA published TMC’s USA-A application in August 2026, but certification, environmental review and a final permit decision remained ahead.
  • Liquidity supports development. At June 30, 2026, TMC reported approximately $143 million of liquidity including credit facilities, with $98.7 million in cash and no financial debt.
  • Commercial preparation raises costs. Exploration and evaluation expenses reached $56.1 million in the quarter to June 2026, including $37.2 million in settlement and other negotiated costs owed to Allseas.

What drives the business

  • TMC’s development strategy centers on collecting polymetallic nodules from the Clarion Clipperton Zone and processing them into nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese products, while pursuing U.S. commercial permits and maintaining its NORI and TOML exploration contracts with the International Seabed Authority.
  • The USA-A application area contains an estimated 619 million tonnes of wet nodules, and Glencore holds offtake rights to 50% of NORI nickel and copper production if produced from a TMC-owned or controlled facility.
  • The May 2026 Allseas agreement covers development, commissioning and operation of the Hidden Gem commercial collection system, designed for nameplate capacity of 3.0 million wet tonnes per annum.
  • Pacific Metals is responsible for processing studies at its Hachinohe smelting facilities in Japan, while Korea Zinc is partnering on U.S. development and Mariana Minerals is advancing feasibility and design work for a proposed processing and refining park at the Port of Brownsville, Texas.
  • The July 2026 agreement with Eco Minerals adds exclusive vessel charter and offshore survey services, subject to vessel availability, alongside potential processing collaboration that still requires definitive agreements, financing and approvals.

What the price assumes

At $3.56 per share and a market value of $1.6 billion, the reverse DCF cannot measure an implied growth rate because free cash flow and operating earnings are both negative, leaving the valuation dependent on future profits.

Free cash flow over the last twelve months was -$44 million, producing a -2.8% yield against the TenQ check’s requirement of above 3%.

TMC passed 0 of 6 Value checks, with several measures unscored because operating figures or sufficient history were unavailable, so there is no established cash generation record against which to test the valuation.

What could change the story

  • NOAA’s review has no mandatory statutory deadline, and additional delays, restrictive permit conditions or legal challenges could disrupt commercialization despite progress through intermediate application steps.
  • The International Seabed Authority’s inquiry could lead to sanctions or suspension or termination of NORI and TOML exploration contracts, while July 2026 provisional measures protect due process rather than resolve the merits.
  • Future domestic onshore capital spending depends on a majority of funding coming from U.S. government sources, and the proposed Brownsville facility still needs acceptable feasibility results and construction and operating permits.
  • Allseas must turn a tested pilot into an integrated commercial collection system, while processing nodules at commercial scale remains an execution risk.
  • Negative equity and liabilities equal to 115.2% of assets weaken the balance sheet beyond its near-term liquidity, while $118 million in stock-based pay over the last twelve months and share count growth of 60.3% over 3 years show the importance of dilution.

What to watch next

  • TMC’s August 2026 guidance expects the USA-A permit before planned offshore commissioning in the fourth quarter of 2027, making certification, environmental review and Allseas engineering progress the key milestones.
  • Government funding decisions and their conditions will determine whether Brownsville can advance beyond initial design work, and TMC stated in August 2026 that it did not intend other capital market transactions before one or more government funding processes conclude.
  • Future cash balances and operating cash use will test TMC’s stated ability to cover commitments for at least the next twelve months from August 13, 2026, against $20.1 million used in operations in the quarter to June 2026, including $9 million of equity award tax withholdings remitted in April 2026.

Sources

Back to the TMC report