TenQ

The Uber story

Uber runs ride and delivery marketplaces, with its expansion hinging on whether shared customers and the proposed Delivery Hero acquisition can deepen Delivery’s contribution to profit.

Written from Uber's own filings with the SEC, and rewritten when it publishes a new earnings release. Updated 2026-09-30.

  • $68.16share price, last close
  • $139.2Bmarket value
  • 23/36TenQ Score checks passed
  • 5.3%growth a year the price assumes

The story in brief

  • Engagement drives bookings. In the quarter to June 2026, monthly active consumers grew 16% to 208 million and trips rose 18% to 3.9 billion, helping Gross Bookings reach $58.0 billion.
  • Earnings need separation. In the quarter to June 2026, GAAP net income of $2.4 billion included a $1.6 billion pretax benefit from investment revaluations, while operating income grew 30% to $1.9 billion.
  • Cash supports expansion. Over the last twelve months, Uber generated $10.1 billion of free cash flow before accounting for $1.9 billion of stock-based pay.

What drives the business

  • Uber connects consumers with independent drivers, couriers and merchants across Mobility and Delivery, while Freight connects shippers with carriers using its marketplace and logistics services.
  • Uber One had 46 million members at December 2025, and consumers using both Mobility and Delivery generated over three times the Gross Bookings of single-offering consumers in the quarter to December 2025 in countries offering both services.
  • The July 2026 business combination agreement with Delivery Hero carries an equity value of $14.8 billion, or $13.7 billion adjusted for Uber’s prior stake purchases, and would extend the combined platform to 99 markets.
  • In the quarter to June 2026, Mobility generated $2.2 billion of segment operating profit against $1.1 billion for Delivery, while Freight recorded a $24 million segment operating loss.
  • Delivery and Freight outpaced Mobility in both bookings and revenue growth in the quarter to June 2026, while total revenue growth of 12% reflected an 8 percentage point drag from business model changes.

What the price assumes

At $68.16, the reverse DCF implies that free cash flow after stock pay grows 5.3% a year for ten years, using a 10.2% discount rate.

Uber delivered 135.8% annual growth on that measure over the last 2 fiscal years, compared with the TenQ check’s 69.9% bar, which slows that record halfway toward 4%.

The implied growth rate is below both comparisons, but the historical comparison rests on a short period of rapid cash growth.

Value UBER on your own assumptions

What could change the story

  • The proposed Delivery Hero transaction adds completion and integration demands, with the separate transfer of businesses in 14 markets to SSW Partners subject to completion of Uber’s offer and other closing conditions.
  • At June 2026, total debt was $12.7 billion against $5.4 billion of cash and short-term investments, and the near-term liquidity ratio of 0.84 fell short of TenQ’s 1.50 bar.
  • Revenue growth over the last twelve months of 16.7% trailed the three-year annual pace of 17.7%, while profit growth over the last twelve months was -24.1%.
  • Competition includes DoorDash in Delivery and autonomous vehicle developers such as Waymo, Zoox and Tesla in Mobility, while evolving labor and transportation rules can affect Uber’s relationships with drivers and couriers.
  • Shares increased 7.3% over 3 years, showing that recent repurchases have not yet reversed dilution over that longer period.

What to watch next

  • For the quarter to September 2026, Uber expects Gross Bookings of $58.25 billion to $60.25 billion, representing constant-currency growth of 18% to 22%, with a roughly 1 percentage-point currency headwind to reported growth.
  • Its outlook calls for non-GAAP EPS of $0.84 to $0.88 and translates to adjusted EBITDA of $2.86 billion to $2.96 billion.
  • Monthly trips per consumer, which grew 2% in the quarter to June 2026, and Delivery segment operating profit will show whether deeper engagement continues to translate into earnings.
  • Updates on Delivery Hero completion, acquisition financing and cash balances will clarify how Uber is balancing expansion with financial flexibility.

Sources

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