TenQ · Stock reportUpdated 2026-10-16

Lemonade (LMND)

$3.4B market cap · TenQ Score 7/36

Sells renters, home, car, pet and life insurance through an app, using AI for claims.

$44.20close as of 2026-10-16
-7.0% over 1Y · 23.8 points behind the S&P 500
$39.64$54.93$70.22$85.50$100.79Oct '25Dec '25Mar '26May '26Aug '26Oct '26

“Can Lemonade reach positive adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2026 while increasing Car and Renters marketing?”

Editorial note · updated 2026-10-08
The TenQ Radar

Lemonade in 36 checks

Lemonade on the TenQ Radar: value, growth, quality, health, shareholder returns and trend. The fuller the shape, the stronger the company. Behind each axis are six pass-or-fail checks from its filings, spelled out in the chapters below. Point at an axis to see them.

VALUEGROWTHQUALITYFINANCIAL HEALTHSHAREHOLDERRETURNSTREND

The business itself is the question here: 7 of 36 checks passed.

The Lemonade story

What drives Lemonade, what its price assumes and what could change the story, written from its own filings.

  • Growth has distinct sources. In the quarter to June 2026, in force premium grew 32% to $1.43 billion, while revenue rose 79% to $294.4 million partly because Lemonade retained more premiums after its reinsurance transition.
  • Automation lowers claims costs. The claims handling expense ratio reached a record low 5% in the quarter to June 2026, with improvements across Homeowners, Car, and Pet.
  • Profitability remains unfinished. In the quarter to June 2026, the adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to ($18.7) million, but the net loss remained ($43.4) million.

Read the Lemonade story

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Latest earnings

Lemonade's latest earnings

Q2 '26 · quarter to 30 June 2026 · reported 29 July 2026 · Earnings release ↗

Revenue$294M+79%vs 2025+14%vs Q1
Earnings-$43M+$500,000vs 2025-$8Mvs Q1
What the release says

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AI summary of the company's filings, every number checked against them · 8 October 2026 · Sources: earnings release, 10-K, 10-Q

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I

Value

●●●●●●1/6

Expensive against its own history and its sector (judged on sales, as it is not yet profitable): the price asks a lot of the business.

-no history
3.5xown 6-year median 5.8x
0.2%cash earned per $ of price
-whole-business multiple
Valuation history

Is LMND's P/E, P/S or P/B high or low against its own past?

→At 3.5x sales, the market is paying 40% less than LMND's own 6-year median of 5.8x. Pessimism is priced in - the question is whether it is deserved.

What this measures

What the market has paid for each dollar of earnings, sales or book value, every year, with today's multiple as the last point and the median drawn across.

What good looks like. There is no good level. What matters is the distance from the company's own history, and whether the business has changed enough to justify it.

If it rises or falls. A multiple above its own median means the market expects more than it used to, so more has to go right. Below the median means the opposite, and the question is whether the pessimism is deserved. A multiple can also fall because earnings rose, which is the good way.

What does “Value” actually mean?

Value asks what you pay for each dollar of earnings, sales or cash the business produces. A high multiple isn't automatically bad - fast growers earn theirs - but a price far above the company's own history means the market expects a lot to go right. We compare each multiple to the company's own past and to its sector, never to a universal rule.

How we scored it · 1 of 6 checks passed
✓Cheaper than its own history (sales - not yet profitable)3.51 vs 5.81
✕Cheap on sales (under 2.5x)3.51 vs 2.50 (fixed yardstick)
–Cheap on enterprise value vs sales (under 3x)enterprise value unavailable
–Hands back over 3% in dividends and buybacksbuybacks, dividends or market cap unavailable
✕Cheap on book value (under 1.5x)6.85 vs 1.50 (fixed yardstick)
✕Price isn't outrunning growthno positive three-year earnings growth behind the price
II

Growth

●●●●●●4/6

Growing, with caveats: revenue +62.3% over the last year.

+62.3%vs the year before
+42.2%compound annual
-net income growth
-compound annual
Revenue history

Is LMND's revenue growing?

◌ dashed quarter = Q4 derived from the annual filing minus Q1, Q2 and Q3 (the SEC never receives a Q4 report)

→Revenue reached $738M in 2025, compounding +42% a year since 2022 though the pace has cooled. The trailing twelve months are already running at $975M, ahead of the last full year.

What this measures

The money customers paid, before any costs are taken out. Each bar is one quarter or, on the annual view, a full financial year; the last annual bar may be the trailing twelve months, which the footnote marks.

What good looks like. Growth that repeats, rather than one strong year carrying the chart, and a trailing twelve months keeping pace with the last full year.

If it rises or falls. Revenue is the hardest line to flatter, so a rise is the most trustworthy kind of growth. A fall puts pressure on every margin below it, because costs rarely come down as quickly as sales do.

Profit history

Is LMND's net profit growing?

◌ dashed quarter = Q4 derived from the annual filing minus Q1, Q2 and Q3 (the SEC never receives a Q4 report)

→The company lost $166M in 2025, less than the $202M it lost the year before. The losses are narrowing, but it is still burning shareholder money.

What this measures

What is left after every cost, including tax and interest. The bottom line of the income statement.

What good looks like. Profit growing at least as fast as revenue, which means the business is keeping more of each sale as it gets bigger.

If it rises or falls. Profit can move for reasons revenue cannot explain - a one-off charge, a tax change, a write-down - so a single sharp year is worth checking against the margin chart before reading it as a trend.

Growth rate

How fast are LMND's revenue and earnings growing?

→Revenue grew 62% over the twelve months to 2026-06-30, against an average of +53% a year over 2021-2025.

What this measures

How much revenue and earnings changed against the year before - the trailing twelve months against the twelve before them at each quarter, or one point per fiscal year. It is the speed of the business, not its size.

What good looks like. The earnings line above the revenue line: profits growing faster than sales means each new dollar of sales arrives more profitably than the last.

If it rises or falls. A high growth rate off a small base is easy and gets harder every year, so slowing growth in a large business is normal rather than a warning. Earnings falling while revenue grows is the combination worth understanding: costs are rising faster than sales.

Per-share growth

Are LMND's revenue and free cash flow per share growing?

→Revenue per share reached $9.98 in 2025, compounding +36% a year against +42% for LMND as a whole. Dilution absorbed about 6.0 points of that growth. The trailing twelve months are running at $13.19 a share.

What this measures

Revenue and free cash flow, each divided by the number of shares in issue and adjusted for splits so old and new years compare honestly. Both lines rising means each share owns more of the business's sales and cash.

What good looks like. Both lines rising, and revenue per share growing at least as fast as the company's total revenue, which the answer compares. Faster means buybacks are working for you; slower means new shares are absorbing part of the growth.

If it rises or falls. This is the line that actually reaches you. A company can grow revenue every year and still shrink your slice by issuing shares faster than it grows.

What does “Growth” actually mean?

Growth here is what the company has actually reported to the SEC - not a forecast. We look at the last year, the three-year pace, whether growth is speeding up or slowing down, and whether it's been consistent rather than one lucky year. Hatched bars are fourth quarters we derived from annual filings (companies file a full-year 10-K rather than a Q4 report).

How we scored it · 4 of 6 checks passed
✓Premiums outgrew its sector over the last twelve months89.5% vs 14.3% (sector 70th pct, n=103)
✓Sustained growth beats its sector (3 years)42.2% vs 14.8% (sector 70th pct, n=100)
✕Profits grew over the last twelve monthsloss-making: TTM net income -$138M
✕Profit growth beats its peers (3 years)loss-making: TTM net income -$138M
✓Growth is speeding up, not slowinglast twelve months 62.3% vs three-year pace 42.2%
✓Grew per share, not just in total152.4% vs 0.0%
III

Quality

●●●●●●1/6

Profitability is thin or negative. The growth isn't turning into money yet.

-kept after direct costs
-kept after running costs
-26.7%profit on shareholders' money
-6.9%profit on everything it owns
-operating cash ÷ net income
Margins

What profit margin does LMND keep on each sale?

→Net margin stands at -22% in 2025. LMND doesn't break out gross or operating margin in its filings, so net is the only layer the data supports.

What this measures

What survives at three points on the way down the income statement: after the direct cost of the product, after the cost of running the company, and after everything.

What good looks like. Margins that hold or widen as the business grows. The level itself varies enormously by industry, so the shape over time tells you more than the number.

If it rises or falls. A widening margin means pricing power or costs under control. A compressing one means the opposite, and it compounds: on large revenue, two points of margin is a great deal of profit.

Earnings quality

Does LMND's operating cash flow keep up with its profit?

→The company generated -$17M of operating cash in 2025. With no profit to compare against, cash generation is the number that matters here.

What this measures

Reported profit against the cash the business actually collected from operating. Profit is an accounting judgement; cash is not.

What good looks like. Cash at or above profit, year after year. Depreciation and other non-cash charges usually push cash above profit, so roughly 100% or more is healthy.

If it rises or falls. Cash falling behind profit for more than a year is the classic early warning: the sales are booked but the money has not arrived, and it shows up in receivables and inventory. For a lender the comparison behaves differently, because a growing loan book consumes cash.

Returns on capital

What return on equity and on capital does LMND earn?

→LMND earns -27% on shareholders' capital. Return on capital employed isn't meaningful for this business model, so ROE carries the picture alone.

What this measures

Two returns side by side: on shareholders' capital (ROE), and on all the capital in the business including debt (ROCE).

What good looks like. Both comfortably above roughly 10%, and close together. A wide gap means borrowing, not operations, is doing the work.

If it rises or falls. A high ROE built on debt looks like quality until the debt has to be refinanced. ROCE is the harder number to flatter, which is why both are shown.

Combined ratio

Do LMND's claims and costs stay below the premiums it collects?

→LMND's combined ratio was 167.6% in 2025, meaning it pays out more in claims and costs than it collects in premiums, and relies on investment income to make up the difference. Peers sit at 103.4%. The ratio has improved from 319.9% in 2022.

What this measures

Claims plus costs as a share of premiums collected. Below 100% the insurer makes money before it invests a cent.

What good looks like. Consistently below 100%, and below comparable insurers.

If it rises or falls. Above 100% the underwriting loses money and the investment portfolio has to make up the difference, which works until markets fall at the same time as claims rise. A ratio that moves with weather or one large event is normal; a trend is not.

Return on equity

Is LMND's return on capital above what its capital costs?

→LMND's return on equity is negative at -29.4% in 2025. The capital in the business is not yet earning anything back.

What this measures

The same return as the card above, but every filed year, against a 10% line that stands in for what capital costs.

What good looks like. Years above the line, and a trend that is flat or rising rather than drifting down towards it.

If it rises or falls. A business earning above its cost of capital creates value by growing; one earning below it destroys value by growing. The 10% line is a convention, not a law, so read the distance from it rather than the crossing.

What does “Quality” actually mean?

Quality asks whether the growth makes real money. Margins show how much of each sale survives costs; return on equity shows what shareholders earn on their capital; and the profit-to-cash comparison catches companies whose accounting profits never turn into actual cash.

How we scored it · 1 of 6 checks passed
✕Underwrites at a profit, better than its peers-41.3% vs 10.5% (fixed yardstick)
✕Runs leaner than its sector (expenses vs revenue)113.7% vs 83.1% (sector 30th pct, n=76)
✕Actually profitableTTM net income -$138M
✕Earns well on shareholders' money-26.7% vs 15.9% (sector 70th pct, n=99)
✕Earns a real return on shareholders' capital-26.7% vs 10.0%
✓Claims stay contained (loss ratio)44.3% vs 58.6% (sector 30th pct, n=77)
IV

Financial health

●●●●●●1/6

The balance sheet carries real risk. Read the checks before anything else.

-debt unreported
-near-term bills coverage
-earnings ÷ interest bill
$377Mcash plus short-term investments
Debt & cash

How much debt does LMND carry, and do its profits cover the interest?

→LMND does not clearly tag debt in its filings, so read the balance sheet with care rather than assuming there is none.

What this measures

Total borrowings against cash on hand, with debt as a multiple of shareholders' equity, and how many times profit covers the interest bill.

What good looks like. Interest covered comfortably - roughly eight times or more - and debt that is not a large multiple of equity.

If it rises or falls. Debt is only a problem when it has to be repaid or refinanced in a bad year, so cover matters more than the amount. Rising debt with rising cover is a business borrowing to grow; rising debt with falling cover is the combination that ends badly.

Cash conversion

How much of LMND's revenue arrives as operating cash?

→2.2% of every dollar LMND sold arrived as operating cash. Up from -181.3% in 2018.

What this measures

Operating cash flow as a share of revenue: of every dollar sold, how much reached the bank before capital spending.

What good looks like. A high share, holding up or improving. It is the clearest sign that reported profit is real.

If it rises or falls. It falls when customers take longer to pay or stock builds up, and it can stay high while profit falls - which is usually the more reassuring of the two.

Shareholders' equity

Is LMND's shareholder equity (book value) growing?

→The company's own capital shrank from $709M in 2023 to $500M (-30%). Buybacks or losses are drawing the buffer down - the distinction matters.

What this measures

What would be left for shareholders if every asset were sold at its book value and every debt repaid. Book value, in other words.

What good looks like. Equity growing as retained profits build up, unless the company is deliberately returning more than it earns.

If it rises or falls. Equity falls for two very different reasons: buybacks, which return money to you, and losses, which do not. The distinction is the whole story, and negative equity means liabilities now exceed assets, which makes debt-to-equity and return on equity meaningless rather than alarming.

What does “Health” actually mean?

Health asks one question: can the business survive a bad year? We check whether near-term bills are covered, whether debt is modest and shrinking, whether earnings comfortably pay the interest, and - for loss-makers - how many years of cash are left at the current burn rate.

How we scored it · 1 of 6 checks passed
✓Capitalised well24.8% vs 15.0%
✕Less levered than its sector0.75 vs 0.71 (sector 30th pct, n=104)
✕Debt trending the right wayliabilities are 75.2% of assets vs 34.6% five years ago
✕Investment income covers the interest1.74 vs 5.00
✕Converts sales to cash better than its sector2.2% vs 23.3% (sector 70th pct, n=103)
✕Underwrites at a profit (combined ratio)141.3% vs 100.0%
V

Shareholder returns

●●●●●●0/6

LMND returns nothing to shareholders yet, and the share count keeps rising. Every dollar stays in the business.

-bought back, TTM, over market value
-at the current rate
-dividends plus buybacks
$81Mlast 12m, dilutes the buybacks
+588.3%since 2018 (split-adjusted)
Share count change (split-adjusted)

Is LMND's share count rising or falling?

→The share count grew 4.1% in 2025, averaging 4.5% a year over three years. Your slice of the company shrinks by that much each year unless earnings grow faster.

What this measures

The yearly change in the number of shares in issue, adjusted for splits so the years compare. A bar below zero is a falling share count, usually from buybacks; above zero, new shares were issued.

What good looks like. A flat or falling share count. Falling means each share you hold owns a little more of the business every year.

If it rises or falls. A rising count divides the same business among more owners, so your slice shrinks unless profits grow faster. This is the most direct chart on the page: it is your ownership, measured.

Dilution against what it bought

Has LMND's revenue per share grown faster than its share count?

Change since 2018. The gap between the lines is what each share gained or lost. Share counts are split-adjusted weighted averages.

→LMND's share count rose 577% from 2018 to 2025 while revenue per share grew 385%. Holders are further ahead than before, though the gain per share is smaller than the growth in the business.

What this measures

The share count and revenue per share over the same years, both indexed to 100 at the start, so the two lines can be compared directly.

What good looks like. The per-share line above the share-count line: whatever the company did with its shares, more business ended up behind each one.

If it rises or falls. Issuing shares is not automatically bad. It is bad when the money raised buys less growth than the dilution cost, which is exactly what the gap between these two lines shows.

Why compare buybacks with stock compensation?

A company can trumpet billions in buybacks while quietly issuing nearly as much stock to employees. What matters to you is the net effect: is the share count actually falling? If not, the 'return' is mostly recycling.

How we scored it · 0 of 6 checks passed
✕Share count isn't climbingshares up 13.9% over 3 years
✕Buybacks outpace the stock issued to staffno buybacks against $81M of stock compensation
✕Hands cash back to ownersno dividends and no buybacks in the last twelve months
✕Meaningful yield to owners (dividends and buybacks)0.00 returned, 0.0% of market value
✕Buybacks are sustained, not one-offpays no dividend and reports no buybacks
✕Buybacks growingpays no dividend and reports no buybacks
VI

Trend

●●●●●●0/6

Every reading points down: a falling trend, not a dip inside a rising one.

-26.5%the long-term trend line
-34.5%S&P 500 (SPY): +3.1%
-15.7%S&P 500 (SPY): +16.0%
-54.2%drawdown from peak
Trend

Which way is LMND's share price trending?

Price chart loads as you scroll…

Chart by TradingView

→LMND is in a downtrend: the price is below the cloud where recent trading settled and that cloud is still falling. Both shorter readings point down as well, so nothing here disagrees with the downtrend.

How the trend above is worked out

The trend read is the daily Ichimoku picture, the same indicator drawn on the chart above. Five names, and what each one is: the TENKAN is the midpoint of the last 9 sessions' high and low, the fast line; the KIJUN is the same over 26 sessions, the slow one; the two SENKOU spans are midpoints drawn 26 sessions into the FUTURE, and the band between them is the KUMO cloud - because it is drawn forward, the support for the coming weeks is already fixed and a change of its direction can be seen coming; the CHIKOU is today's close compared with the close 26 sessions back. A trend confirms itself in that order and the checks follow it: price clears the cloud, holds above both lines, the Tenkan crosses above the Kijun, the cloud ahead turns up, and the Chikou stands higher than the price a month ago. Six of six therefore means all of that at once; a price sitting inside the cloud, or below its own lines, cannot get there. The last check is the one Ichimoku cannot answer - whether the S&P 500 did better over 12 months (252 sessions), measured on the SPY ETF with dividends included, on the same adjusted basis as the stock's own price. Our figures are the last close we hold, refreshed every trading night; the chart is live. None of this says anything about the business, and it is not advice.

How we scored it · 0 of 6 checks passed
✕Price above the Kumo cloud$44.20, below the cloud bottom of $52.16
✕Price above the Tenkan and the Kijun$44.20 against the Tenkan (9 sessions) at $45.16 and the Kijun (26) at $46.85
✕Tenkan above the KijunTenkan $45.16 below the Kijun $46.85, 28 sessions since they crossed
✕The Senkou cloud ahead is risingthe Senkou spans already drawn for the next 26 sessions are falling
✕Chikou above the price 26 sessions back$44.20 against $49.61 26 sessions ago
✕Beating the S&P 500 over 12 months-15.7% vs 16.0%
VII

Insider activity

informational
$485,478their own money
$35Moften pre-scheduled
37of the last filings
23grants · exercises · tax
Open-market flow

Are LMND's insiders buying or selling shares with their own money?

→Since November 2023, insiders bought $2M and sold $221M on the open market, a net sale of $219M. A further 78 transactions were grants, option exercises or tax withholding, which say nothing either way.

What this measures

Open-market buys and sells by the company's own officers and directors, from their Form 4 filings. Grants, option exercises and shares withheld for tax are excluded, because they are compensation rather than decisions.

What good looks like. Buying with their own money, which is the one insider action that is hard to explain away.

If it rises or falls. Selling is weak evidence: insiders sell to diversify, to buy houses, and on pre-scheduled plans set months ahead. Buying is stronger evidence, because there is only one reason to do it. The absence of any buying over a long stretch is itself worth noticing.

The record

Who did what, exactly?

DateInsiderRoleTypeSharesPriceValue
2026-09-04John Sheldon PetersChief Insurance OfficerSELL2,249$54.45$122,458
2026-09-03Maya ProsorChief Business OfficerSELL1,040$54.63$56,815
2026-09-03Timothy E BixbyChief Financial OfficerSELL1,893$54.63$103,415
2026-09-03John Sheldon PetersChief Insurance OfficerSELL859$54.63$46,927
2026-08-13John Sheldon PetersChief Insurance OfficerSELL11,000$52.55$578,050
2026-07-07Timothy E BixbyChief Financial OfficerSELL73,000$79.18$5.78M
2026-07-06John Sheldon PetersChief Insurance OfficerSELL3,444$79.00$272,076
2026-06-04John Sheldon PetersChief Insurance OfficerSELL3,608$52.94$191,008
2026-06-03Timothy E BixbyChief Financial OfficerSELL2,227$53.17$118,410
2026-06-03John Sheldon PetersChief Insurance OfficerSELL1,735$53.17$92,250
Why do the transaction types matter so much?

Most insider filings are not trades: stock grants, option exercises and tax withholding are how executives get paid, and gifts are estate planning. The signal lives in open-market transactions - a buy means an insider chose to spend their own cash on the stock. Sells are murkier: many are pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plans set months in advance. That's why the chart counts only open-market activity, and the table labels every row.

VIII

Ownership

informational
58.3%on Form 13F, 30 June 2026
16.3%officers, directors, founders
44.7%together
Top holders

Who owns Lemonade stock?

Fund managers filing Form 13F held 58.3% of the company's shares on 30 June 2026. The largest holder is BlackRock, Inc., with 7.8%. Insiders hold 16.3%.

#HolderStakeSharesValueChange
1BlackRock, Inc.Fund manager7.81%6.0M$267M+21.7%
2JPMorgan Chase & CoFund manager6.97%5.4M$238M+2.5%
3Shai WiningerPresident · Form 4, 2 September 20265.71%4.4M$195M-

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Source: SEC Form 13F filings for the quarter to 30 June 2026, Schedules 13D and 13G, and Form 4. Shares on today's basis, value at the latest price.

Where does this list come from?

Fund managers with more than $100 million in US stocks report their holdings every quarter on Form 13F, up to 45 days after the quarter ends, so the fund figures are as of the last quarter end. A fund family reports as one manager, and funds together can report more than 100%: shares lent to short sellers are bought again by other funds, and both report them. Anyone holding more than 5% of a class files a Schedule 13D or 13G, and officers and directors report what they hold on Form 4 after every trade, so those rows carry their own dates. Short positions are not reported anywhere. A stake is the holder's shares as a share of all the company's shares, with other share classes converted at their market value.

§

Recent filings

A short weekly note on what changed in the numbers, coming soon.One email a week: the charts that mattered, nothing else.
Where these numbers come from. Financial statements: US SEC EDGAR (XBRL company facts, as filed - including restatements; hatched chart bars are fourth quarters derived from annual filings), current to 2026-06-30. Prices: delayed end-of-day, as of 2026-10-16. Scores are counts of the transparent pass/fail checks shown in each chapter; every sentence on this page is computed from the data shown, except the labelled editorial note. Missing data is shown as missing, never estimated. Nothing here is investment advice. Terms · Methodology