UPSUPS
$73.0B market capDelivers parcels worldwide, and is shrinking its Amazon volume on purpose.
UPS in 36 checks
UPS at a glance: how it scores on value, growth, quality, health, shareholder returns and trend. The fuller the shape, the stronger the company. Behind each axis are six pass-or-fail checks from its filings, spelled out in the chapters below. Point at an axis to see them.
A mixed picture - strengths and real weaknesses - 17 of 36 checks passed.
Value
What you pay today for what the business produces, measured against UPS's own history and its peers, never a universal rule.
Fairly priced on some measures, rich on others - earnings multiple above its own long-run norm.
Is the price high or low right now, compared to what the market usually pays?
→At 19.0x earnings, the market is paying +29% more than UPS's own 11-year median of 14.7x. Expectations are elevated, so more has to go right to justify the price.
What has the market paid for UPS over the years?
◌ 2026 = at the latest close (2026-09-04), over the trailing twelve months; earlier years are annual averages
→At 19.0x earnings, the market is paying +29% more than UPS's own 11-year median of 14.7x. Expectations are elevated, so more has to go right to justify the price.
What cash return does the business throw off per dollar of market value?
7.5%FCF yield today
◌ 2026 = at the latest close (2026-09-04), over the trailing twelve months; earlier years are annual averages
→At 7.5%, the business is throwing off more cash per dollar of market value than its own 11-year median of 6.0% - the cheaper end of its history.
What does “Value” actually mean?
Value asks what you pay for each dollar of earnings, sales or cash the business produces. A high multiple isn't automatically bad - fast growers earn theirs - but a price far above the company's own history means the market expects a lot to go right. We compare each multiple to the company's own past and to its sector, never to a universal rule.
How we scored it · 3 of 6 checks passed
| – | Cheaper than its own history (earnings) | no multiple history |
| ✓ | Earnings yield beats a long bond (4%) | 5.3% vs 4.0% |
| – | Better cash yield than its own history | under 3 years of cash-flow history |
| ✓ | Free cash flow yield above 3% | 7.5% vs 3.0% |
| ✓ | Cheap on enterprise value | 9.60 vs 14.00 (peer median) |
| ✕ | Price isn't outrunning growth | no positive three-year earnings growth behind the price |
Growth
What the company has actually reported - is it selling more, and is more of it becoming profit?
Growth is weak or inconsistent - the trend, not the story, is the problem.
Revenue: is the business selling more than it used to?
◌ 2026 = trailing twelve months to the latest filed quarter, not a full fiscal year
→Revenue reached $88.7B in 2025, compounding -4% a year since 2022 though the path has been bumpy.
Net income: how much of that revenue becomes profit?
◌ 2026 = trailing twelve months to the latest filed quarter, not a full fiscal year
→Net income was $5.6B in 2025, compounding -22% a year over three years. Trailing twelve-month profit stands at $4.6B.
How fast is it growing, year by year?
-3%revenue growth, FY 2025
Shown separately because they would flatten the axis: 2013 earnings +442% · 2021 earnings +860% - rebounds off a collapsed prior year.
→In 2025 revenue grew -3% while earnings moved -4% - when the earnings line runs above revenue, each new dollar of sales is arriving more profitably.
What does “Growth” actually mean?
Growth here is what the company has actually reported to the SEC - not a forecast. We look at the last year, the three-year pace, whether growth is speeding up or slowing down, and whether it's been consistent rather than one lucky year. Hatched bars are fourth quarters we derived from annual filings (companies file a full-year 10-K rather than a Q4 report).
How we scored it · 1 of 6 checks passed
| ✕ | Outgrew its sector last year | -0.4% vs 11.3% (market 70th pct) |
| ✕ | Sustained growth beats its sector (3 years) | -4.0% vs 13.0% (market 70th pct) |
| ✕ | Profits grew last year | -20.2% vs 0.0% |
| ✕ | Profit growth beats its peers | -20.8% vs 13.0% (market 70th pct) |
| ✓ | Growth is speeding up, not slowing | 1y -0.4% vs 3y -4.0% |
| ✕ | Grew per share, not just in total | -9.0% vs 0.0% |
Quality
Whether the growth makes real money - margins, returns on capital, and whether profits turn into cash.
A solidly profitable business, though not exceptional against its sector.
Margins: of every $1 of sales, how much survives each cost layer?
◌ 2026 = trailing twelve months to the latest filed quarter (2026-06-30), not a full fiscal year
→Operating margin compressed 4 points to 9% since 2022. After everything, 6 cents of each sales dollar reaches net profit. UPS doesn't tag a gross-profit line in its filings, so the chart starts at operating margin.
Earnings quality: do the reported profits turn into real cash?
◌ 2026 = trailing twelve months to the latest filed quarter (2026-06-30), not a full fiscal year
→Operating cash flow runs at 194% of reported profit, so the earnings are more than backed by cash - depreciation and other non-cash charges are understating what the business actually collects.
What does it earn on the money it uses?
◌ 2026 = trailing twelve months to the latest filed quarter (2026-06-30), not a full fiscal year
→ROE of 34% but ROCE of only 14% - a chunk of those shareholder returns is manufactured with leverage, not operations.
How much of every sales dollar ends up as free cash?
◌ 2026 = trailing twelve months to the latest filed quarter, not a full fiscal year
→5 cents of every sales dollar became free cash in 2025, down 4 points since 2022.
What does staying competitive cost, per dollar of sales?
◌ 2026 = trailing twelve months to the latest filed quarter (2026-06-30), not a full fiscal year
→The biggest claim on each sales dollar is capital spending, at 4% of revenue (stock compensation 0%).
When sales grow, do profits grow faster?
→Operating profit outgrew revenue in only 1 of the last 5 years. Costs are growing roughly in step with the business, so scale isn't yet paying for itself.
Does UPS earn more on its capital than that capital costs?
→UPS earns 13.7% on the capital it employs, comfortably above the 10% most investors treat as the cost of capital. It was 24.7% in 2022, so the trend is down, though the pace has cooled.
What does “Quality” actually mean?
Quality asks whether the growth makes real money. Margins show how much of each sale survives costs; return on equity shows what shareholders earn on their capital; and the profit-to-cash comparison catches companies whose accounting profits never turn into actual cash.
How we scored it · 4 of 6 checks passed
| ✕ | Better net margins than peers | 5.1% vs 10.5% (market 70th pct) |
| ✕ | Runs leaner than peers (operating margin) | 7.3% vs 13.0% (market 70th pct) |
| ✓ | Actually profitable | TTM net income $4.6B |
| ✓ | Earns well on shareholders' money | 30.3% vs 12.3% (market 70th pct) |
| ✓ | Earns a real return on the capital it employs | 11.7% vs 10.0% |
| ✓ | Profits are cash, not accounting | 1.94 vs 0.80 |
Health
The balance sheet stress test: could UPS survive a bad year?
The balance sheet carries real risk - read the checks before anything else.
Could it handle its debt if things went wrong?
→Debt of $24.5B sits against $4.7B of cash, or 1.6x shareholders' equity. Earnings cover interest 6.0 times - adequate, with less room than it looks in a downturn.
Is the company's own capital growing or shrinking?
→The company's own capital shrank from $17.3B in 2023 to $15.1B (-13%). Buybacks or losses are drawing the buffer down - the distinction matters.
What does “Health” actually mean?
Health asks one question: can the business survive a bad year? We check whether near-term bills are covered, whether debt is modest and shrinking, whether earnings comfortably pay the interest, and - for loss-makers - how many years of cash are left at the current burn rate.
How we scored it · 2 of 6 checks passed
| ✕ | Comfortable near-term liquidity | 1.18 vs 1.50 |
| ✕ | Debt isn't dominating | 1.63 vs 1.00 |
| ✕ | Debt trending the right way | debt/equity 1.63 now vs 1.54 five years ago |
| ✓ | Earnings cover the interest | 6.01 vs 5.00 |
| ✕ | Converts sales to cash better than its sector | 9.9% vs 20.5% (market 70th pct) |
| ✓ | Self-funding | TTM free cash flow $5.5B |
Shareholder returns
How much cash actually flows back to owners - dividends, buybacks, whether the share count truly falls, and whether what is handed back is affordable.
Cash comes back to owners, with a caveat or two in the checks below.
How much goes back to shareholders - and how much leaks out as stock compensation?
→$6.4B returned last year against $73M of stock issued to employees - the returns outweigh the dilution 87.6-to-1.
How fast is your ownership being diluted - or concentrated?
→The count shrank 0.7% last year - buybacks are outrunning stock compensation.
Is the dividend cheque itself growing?
→Up from $3.87 to $6.35 per share over 5 years - the cheque keeps growing.
What does the payout earn you at each year's prices?
◌ 2026 = at the latest close (2026-09-04), over the trailing twelve months; earlier years are annual averages
→At today's price the yield is 7.4%.
Can it actually afford the dividend?
◌ 2026 = trailing twelve months to the latest filed quarter (2026-06-30), not a full fiscal year
→Stretched: 97% of profits and 113% of free cash flow go out as dividends - most of what the business generates, so a cut gets likelier in a bad year.
UPS has issued or retired shares - did shareholders end up better off?
Both lines start at 100 in 2011, so the gap between them is what each share gained or lost. Share counts are split-adjusted.
→UPS has shrunk its share count -14% from 2011 to 2025, so each remaining share owns more of the business. Revenue per share is +95% over the same years.
Why compare buybacks with stock compensation?
A company can trumpet billions in buybacks while quietly issuing nearly as much stock to employees. What matters to you is the net effect: is the share count actually falling? If not, the 'return' is mostly recycling.
How we scored it · 4 of 6 checks passed
| ✓ | Share count isn't climbing | shares down 2.9% over 3 years |
| ✕ | Buybacks outpace the stock issued to staff | no buybacks against $115M of stock compensation |
| ✓ | What it hands back fits inside its cash flow | 99.1% vs 100.0% |
| ✓ | Meaningful yield to owners (dividends and buybacks) | $5.4B returned, 7.4% of market value |
| ✓ | Reliable payer, never cut | paid 10/10 years, worst year-on-year change -0.0% |
| ✕ | Dividend growing ahead of inflation | 5.6% vs 9.0% |
Trend analysis
What the market is doing about all of the above. This is price behaviour, not a fact about the business - read it as the market's current opinion, scored on six checks like every other chapter. The market is the S&P 500, measured by the SPY ETF with dividends included, over 3 months (63 trading sessions) and 12 months (252).
Mixed signals from the market - some trends up, some rolling over.
How is UPS's trend actually behaving right now?
Chart by TradingView
→UPS is in a downtrend. The price is below the band where recent trading settled and that band is still falling, so nothing in the picture has turned yet. The last two weeks have ticked up, but the price is still below where it stood a month ago, so it is too early to call this a turn. The band drawn for the coming weeks turns downward partway through, so that support is set to thin out from there.
How the trend above is worked out
The trend read comes from the daily Ichimoku picture, a standard trend indicator, translated out of its jargon. It builds a band from the midpoints of the last 9, 26 and 52 sessions' highs and lows - in effect, the range where recent trading has settled - and draws that band 26 sessions into the future. Price above the band is an uptrend, below it a downtrend, inside it no trend. Because the band is drawn forward, the support for the next few weeks is already fixed and a change of its direction can be seen coming. We also compare the last two weeks against the last month, and today's price against where it stood a month ago. None of this says anything about the business; it describes the price only, and it is not advice. Where a check says 'the S&P 500', the comparison is with the SPY ETF including dividends, on the same adjusted basis as the stock's own price: short means 3 months, 63 trading sessions; long means 12 months, 252.
How we scored it · 3 of 6 checks passed
| ✕ | Trading above its cloud | 0.00 vs 0.50 |
| ✓ | Long-term trend structure is healthy | 106.52 vs 101.91 |
| ✕ | Rising over 3 months | -4.3% vs 0.0% |
| ✕ | Beating the S&P 500 over 3 months | -4.3% vs 4.7% |
| ✓ | Beating the S&P 500 over 12 months | 29.0% vs 20.0% |
| ✓ | Not in a deep hole | -11.7% from its 52-week high |
Insider activity
What the people running the company do with their own shares - reported to the SEC within two days, classified so pay-plumbing doesn't masquerade as conviction.
Are the people running it buying or selling with their own money?
→No open-market buys or sells in the recent filings - everything below is compensation plumbing (grants, option exercises, tax withholding).
Who did what, exactly?
| Date | Insider | Role | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Bala Subramanian | Chief Digital & Tech Officer | tax | 1,027 | $103,501 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kathleen M. Gutmann | Pres Intl, Healthcare and SCS | tax | 1,582 | $159,434 |
| 2026-05-15 | Matthew W Guffey | CHF Commercial & Strategy Off | tax | 1,189 | $119,827 |
| 2026-05-15 | Brian M Dykes | Chief Financial Officer | tax | 1,398 | $140,890 |
| 2026-05-15 | Nando Cesarone | President, US Operations | tax | 1,582 | $159,434 |
| 2026-05-15 | Darrell L Ford | Chief Human Resources Officer | tax | 969 | $97,656 |
| 2026-05-15 | Norman M. Jr Brothers | Chief Legal & Compliance Off | tax | 1,116 | $112,470 |
| 2026-02-13 | Carol B Tome | Chief Executive Officer | tax | 2,331 | $231,212 |
| 2026-02-13 | Bala Subramanian | Chief Digital & Tech Officer | tax | 470 | $46,619 |
| 2026-02-13 | Kathleen M. Gutmann | Pres Intl, Healthcare and SCS | tax | 872 | $86,494 |
Why do the transaction types matter so much?
Most insider filings are not trades: stock grants, option exercises and tax withholding are how executives get paid, and gifts are estate planning. The signal lives in open-market transactions - a buy means an insider chose to spend their own cash on the stock. Sells are murkier: many are pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plans set months in advance. That's why the chart counts only open-market activity, and the table labels every row.